Posted on 11/12/2014 1:10:49 PM PST by Din Maker
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) faced an uphill fight for reelection from the outset. Polling averages had her leading last week's free-for-all jungle primary forever, but have consistently also shown that Landrieu would lose to Republican Bill Cassidy if the race came down to the two of them.
Let's figure out how turnout will change. The answer is: It will go down. In 2012, a House run-off race saw a 69 percent drop in turnout. But that was from a presidential race. If you figure that turnout last week was only 73 percent of 2012 turnout statewide, we can assume that turnout in the runoff will be about 50 percent lower than last week. (Well, 42 percent, specifically, but you knew that, smart guy.)
If you were to flatly assume that every voter who voted for a Republican last week will vote for Cassidy and every voter who backed a Democrat will vote for Landrieu, Cassidy would win by 180,000 votes. If you lop half of the turnout off of that you get ... Cassidy winning by 90,000. (Makes sense, right?) That's assuming that the turnout is the same party split. It's probably more likely to be more-frequent voters, meaning older voters. Which probably means more Cassidy voters.
Can Landrieu make up the difference with turnout? Sure, in theory. In theory, anything could happen. But given that the Senate Dems are bailing on the race, the odds that that particular anything would happen are very, very low.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
She is in trouble for one very simple reason:
She is a very liberal Dem representing a fairly conservative state.
Not a good fit for LA.
Give the ComPost an "A" for effort in helping to create the liberal analysis of the 2014 election. The Dems lost because turnout was low. If more people voted, the Republicans would not have won as much. Message: the people still don't support the GOP even if two-faced Dems like Landrieu go down in flames.
One thing that bugs me about elections... when major parties don’t even bother putting a name on the ballot for races. If you are a major party, you should have a name on the ballot, even for races you have no chance of winning, IMO.
From what was posted above, I don’t think they deserved an A for effort.
It took time, but most of those who hitched their horse to the failures of The Marxist Leader are being shown the door. Maybe the Dumbocrats will start growing spines and do what’s right for their constituents and not their country-hating, narcissist Messiah.
All that needs to be hammered daily is that without Landrieu's last minute "Louisiana Purchase," Obamanation Health Care would not have passed.
Did Duck Dynasty Phil Robertson’s nephew win his election seat in La?
I absolutely agree.
I believe he did.
No. Abraham and Mayo in runoff.
oh,..... thanks.
People should send Mary’s staff Forks ,so they can ,well you know what
Like in Kansas for examole, where the democrats had no candidate for the Senate.
Her biggest asset was her membership in the majority party. Now that’s advantage is Cassidy’s.
Did they not field one against Jeff Sessions of Alabama, I think?
Not running a candidate for US Senate is crazy for a major party. I was talking about down ballot races like State House seats. Don’t leave them blank, find a volunteer to use their name if nothing else.
Logan’s Run
Actually, in the U.S. Senate the best thing a state can do is elect one Senator from each party. If you have no Senators in the majority party you have no power, and if you have two Senators in the majority party then you have no leverage.
Don’t count her out just yet.
She will still win Orleans Parish — by far the most populated Parish in the state — in a blowout. Most of the rest of south LA will follow suit, along with the multitude of dead voters.
Cassidy’s only hope is to win central and north LA by a wide margin.
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