Posted on 11/02/2015 1:47:01 PM PST by Isara
PPP's newest Iowa poll finds a tight race on the Republican side in the state with Donald Trump at 22%, Ben Carson at 21%, Ted Cruz at 14%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Mike Huckabee and Bobby Jindal each at 6%, and Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina each at 5%. Polling further back are Chris Christie at 3%, John Kasich, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum each at 2%, Lindsey Graham with less than 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki each with no supporters.
Compared to our last Iowa poll in mid-September Trump's support is down 2 points (from 24% to 22%), while Carson's support is up 4 points (from 17% to 21%) putting them in the deadlock. The big gainer from a month ago is Ted Cruz though. He's gone from 8% to 14%, and also seen his favorability rating improve from 51/23 to 62/16. Cruz is now leading the field in Iowa among Tea Party voters (34% to 24% for Trump and 22% for Carson), and voters who identify themselves as 'very conservative' (24% to 22% for Carson and 21% for Trump.)
Carson continues to be easily the most popular of the Republican candidates in Iowa with 74% of GOP primary voters viewing him favorably to only 13% with a negative opinion. He's also the most frequent second choice in the state with 19% picking him on that front to 12% for Rubio, and 10% each for Cruz and Trump. When you combine first and second choices Carson leads the way with 40% to 32% for Trump, 24% for Cruz, and 22% for Rubio. Carson is leading the field among evangelicals with 22% to 19% for Trump, and 16% for Cruz, and also has the advantage among women with 22% to 19% for Trump, and 11% each for Cruz and Rubio.
Besides Cruz and Carson the gainers compared to our last Iowa poll, each of whom went up 2 points, are Rubio (from 8% to 10%), Jindal (from 4% to 6%), and Christie (from 1% to 3%). Jindal (60/18) and Rubio (60/20) have the highest favorability ratings of any candidate in Iowa other than Carson and Cruz. Even though he's still lagging pretty far back in the polls Christie's had an amazing transformation in his image over the last two and a half months. When we polled Iowa in August right after the first Republican debate, only 34% of Republicans in the state had a favorable opinion of him to 44% who held a negative one. Now 48% see him favorably to 28% with an unfavorable opinion of him, for an overall net 30 point gain. It's been quite a turn around.
Heading the wrong way in Iowa as she is elsewhere is Carly Fiorina. We found her at 13% and with a 62/15 favorability rating right after the September GOP debate. Now she's at just 5% and although her favorability rating is still good at 55/20, it has dipped some. The only person besides Fiorina and Trump to have seen a decline in their support of 2 points or more is Rand Paul who's gone from 4% to 2%.
Jeb Bush is having a rough time in Iowa. Only 30% of GOP voters see him favorably to 43% with a negative opinion, giving him the highest unfavorable rating of any of the candidates in Iowa. Among those who describe themselves as 'very conservative,' just 25% see Bush favorably to 53% who have a negative view. One measure of how Bush-resistant GOP voters are is that in a head to head with Trump he trails 55/37. By comparison Trump loses by double digits when matched up directly with Rubi0 (51/40), Cruz (53/36), or Carson (55/35).
Also struggling in Iowa among the candidates who were included in the main debate last week is John Kasich. Beyond his 2% standing for the nomination his 22/37 favorability rating is basically the same as Lindsey Graham's 20/38 spread, even though Kasich is generally taken seriously as a candidate and Graham is not.
As for Trump his 53/34 favorability rating is actually a little better than the 48/38 spread it came in at in September. He's winning among GOP voters most concerned about electability (26% to 22% for Carson and 14% for Rubio), among men (25% to 20% for Carson and 17% for Cruz), and younger voters (26% to 22% for Carson and 12% for Cruz.) His strongest group though is moderates- with them he gets 38% to 12% for Carson and 11% for Rubio, and that's what's allowing him to have his small overall advantage.
Iowa Republicans have generally been getting less interested in watching the debates. 62% said they watched the August one, 56% said they watched in September, and that went down to 44% for last week's debate. Even if not as many voters watched this time though it didn't stop them from joining in the anger at CNBC. Only 9% of Iowa GOPers say they have a favorable opinion of CNBC, to 74% with a negative one. Of course those numbers aren't that distinguishable from the 8/83 favorability the media has overall with Republicans in the state.
On the Democratic side in Iowa Hillary Clinton has really reestablished her dominance, getting 57% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% for the now departed Lawrence Lessig. Clinton's seen a 15 point improvement in her net favorability rating over the last six weeks, from +42 at 65/23 in mid-September to now +57 at 74/17. Sanders has continued to become more popular too, going from 56/20 to 62/20.
Clinton is really dominating with several key groups in Iowa. Among seniors she's up 74/13 and with women she's up 61/21. She leads across the board with the various constituencies we track but it is tighter with younger voters (43/40), men (51/31), and voters who identify themselves as 'very liberal' (48/30).
Full results here
Notice that this poll has Carson behind Trump by one, but the other poll has Carson leading by 8 points.
It will come down to a 4 horse race. Thankfully, Yeb! was exposed as a donkey.
Cruz is my guy.
My main concern is he does not seem to be doing well in one on one match-up against Hillary in the RCP average polls.
See here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Strangely, it is Ben Carson who does the best against Hillary.
If clintoon wins nothing else will matter again.
The stupid electorial college is stacked in favor of dims. Our struggle is nothing but uphill.
Love the headlines. “Cruz rising,” but Trump has just eliminated an 8-point lead in the other poll? Who is rising faster?
“The stupid electorial college is stacked in favor of dims”
Why do you think that?
| Poll | Date |
Carson
|
Trump
|
Rubio
|
Cruz
|
Bush
|
Fiorina
|
Paul
|
Jindal
|
Huckabee
|
Kasich
|
Santorum
|
Christie
|
Pataki
|
Graham
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/14 - 10/25 | 29.2 | 20.6 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Carson +8.6 |
| MonmouthMonmouth | 10/22 - 10/25 | 32 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Carson +14 |
| Loras CollegeLoras | 10/19 - 10/22 | 31 | 19 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Carson +12 |
| CBS/YouGovCBS/YouGov | 10/15 - 10/22 | 27 | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Tie |
| DMR/BloombergDMR/Bloomberg | 10/16 - 10/19 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Carson +9 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 10/14 - 10/20 | 28 | 20 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Carson +8 |
No kidding! $h*+e like this tends to happen when you go out of your way to poke the base in the eye with a sharp stick and make it clear that you prefer speaking Spanish.
"Trump loses by double digits when matched up directly with Rubio (51/40), Cruz (53/36), or Carson (55/35)."
“Clinton’s seen a 15 point improvement in her net favorability rating over the last six weeks, from +42 at 65/23 in mid-September to now +57 at 74/17.”
The more she lies, and laughs demonically, the more the Dims like her. As has been said repeatedly, it’s a mental disorder.
Isn’t PPP a Democrat poling outfit? The polls are as biased as the msm.
Please click on the pictures at the top of the columns for more details on the ratings of the candidates.
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More at Conservative Review: https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates
Note: If you don't like the ratings for any reason, please contact Conservative Review's Editor-in-Chief, "The Great One," Mark Levin. But I have to warn you that you may get this response from him: "GET OFF THE PHONE, YOU BIG DOPE!"
***************
But that isn't the format is it? He's matched up against the entire field
albeit the field may dwindle by Iowa time.
You keep posting this s*** so I just have to keep replying the same way:
To be honest with you, I've considered Levin a clown ever since his Rick Santorum endorsement. His failure to vet the candidates properly only reinforces that opinion for me. Ted Cruz, for instance, as you well know, is horrible on immigration and is provably dishonest on the topic. Cruz redefines "amnesty" only to mean "a pathway to citizenship," but supports granting legal status to illegals to "bring them out of the shadows," a process by the way which inevitably leads to legal status, because it is impossible to create a third class of citizen incapable of being naturalized!:
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/ted_cruz_vs_donald_trump_whos_stronger_on_immigration.html
http://www.kausfiles.com/2015/05/21/cruz-and-amnesty-round-ii-the-telltale-video/
"And I’d like to make a final point to those advocacy groups that are very engaged in this issue and rightly concerned about addressing our immigration system, and in particular about addressing the situation for the 11 million who are currently in the shadows. If this amendment is adopted to the current bill the effect would be that those 11 million under this current bill would still be eligible for RPI status.** They would still be eligible for legal status and indeed under the terms of the bill they would be eligible for LPR status as well, so that they are out of the shadows, which the proponents of this bill repeatedly point to as their principle objective  to provide a legal status for those who are here illlegally to be out of the shadows. This amendment would allow that to happen …
And a second point to those advocacy groups that are so passionately engaged. In my view if this committee rejects this amendment, and I think everyone here views it as quite likely this committee will choose to reject this amendment, in my view that decision will make it much, much more likely that this entire bill will fail in the House of Representantives. I don’t want immigration reform to fail. I want immigration reform to pass, and so I would urge people of good faith on both sides of the aisle, if the objective is to pass common sense immigration reform that secures the borders, that improves legal immigration, and that allows those who are here illegally to come in out of the shadows, then we should look for areas of bipartisan agreement and compromise to come together and this amendment  I believe if this amendment were to pass the chances of this bill passing into law would increase dramatically, and so I would urge the committee to give it full consideration and to adopt the amendment."
Yes, PPP are Dems.
Cue Jaws music.
Go find it and post for all to see. I gotta go for now. ...Bubioo moving up.
"NEW OAN/Gravis Iowa poll: Trump 29% Carson 22 Rubio 18"
Correct. Trump-Carson-Cruz-Rubio. Add Hillary and you have 5 and only 5 possibilities for the next President of the United States.
The only thing that could disrupt this scenario is the replacement of Hillary The Indicted by the Real Obama Candidate - whoever that might be.
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