Posted on 11/10/2015 6:43:19 AM PST by Isara
Ted Cruz's plan to win the Republican presidential nomination is coming together.
The Texas senator has been edging up in the polls and has a chance to drive home his advantage Tuesday night, when the fourth televised GOP debate takes place in Milwaukee.
GOP insiders say that the Tea Party favorite also has one of the most impressive political operations in the field. And the consensus is growing that he and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) could end up as finalists in the battle for the nomination.
In that scenario - which is dependent on the current leaders, businessman Donald Trump and retried neurosurgeon Ben Carson, fading - Cruz would emerge as the standard-bearer of the GOP's conservative wing, while Rubio would be the establishment-friendly figure.
If it comes to that, Cruz supporters like their chances, given the insurgent mood rippling through the party's base.
All of this might seem like an optimistic interpretation of the chances of a candidate who is in fourth place nationwide, according to the ÂRealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. But even non-aligned Republican strategists say that the Texan is right where he wants to be.
"They like where they are. They like the trend line they are on," strategist Matt Mackowiak, who also writes for The Hill's Contributors blog, said of Cruz's campaign.
Cruz had a particularly good night at the most recent Republican debate in Boulder, Colo., and he has risen steadily in the polls of late. Only a month ago, he was sixth in the RCP national average.
The fact that he has subsequently overtaken former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is especially important. Cruz - along with Rubio, Carson and Trump - now looks to have achieved separation from the rest of the 15-person field.
The bullishness about his prospects stems from the fact that many people believe he is better-positioned than anyone to take votes from his 2016 rivals. They argue he could attract the support of trailing, right-wing candidates who may drop out - such as former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee - while also picking off Trump and Carson backers who get cold feet about their lack of political experience.
"He has support among evangelicals [and] if something happens to Carson and Trump, I see him picking up that support," said veteran GOP strategist Ed Rollins. "He is a very viable candidate to win Iowa."
Cruz now sits in an effective tie for third place with Rubio in Iowa. The Floridian has 12.8 percent support there, according to the RCP average in the state, with Cruz at 12.3 percent. The Texan is a more difficult fit for New Hampshire, where the GOP electorate leans less emphatically conservative. But he would be a much better bet in third-to-vote South Carolina and beyond.
Cruz has long insisted that he has the clear and concrete strategy to win. In August, he told a crowd in Little Rock, Ark., that he was focusing on that state and others in the South, including Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, all of which are scheduled to vote on March 1 in what has been nicknamed "the SEC primary."
"The role of Arkansas and the other states throughout the SEC is to make sure the next Republican nominee for president is a real and genuine conservative," Cruz said, according to an Associated Press report, which also quoted him asserting that "our strategy is very deliberately playing the long game."
Earlier still, in mid-July, Cruz had given a rundown to about two dozen House conservatives on his game plan.
"It was a very enlightening discussion about his path to victory," Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) told The Hill afterward, adding, "It was compelling. He knew his numbers so well."
Cruz has performed extremely strongly in the fundraising race. According to the latest figures from the Center for Responsive Politics, he has around $13 million in cash on hand for his own campaign, a sizable sum that is dwarfed by the $37 million that Cruz-allied super-PACs have on hand.
Yet there are dangers, to be sure. Mackowiak, who admiringly says of Cruz that "if you look at all the metrics, he has outperformed from the very beginning," also notes how the Texan senator has taken a much gentler approach toward Trump than have some of his rivals.
"That's a great strategy so long as Trump fades," he said. "But it's a terrible strategy if Trump is in first place and on a path to the nomination."
Others worry that Cruz still has a likability problem or that his trenchantly conservative views might cause him trouble in a general election.
Some contend that Cruz would struggle to win over independent voters in the general election. However, a recent Quinnipiac University poll had Cruz beating Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton 46 percent to 43 percent in a hypothetical match-up.
Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida professor, said that when it comes to her own state and other diverse general election battlegrounds, "you just can't come in and say some of the things Cruz says, on immigration particularly."
In the primary, however, those views may be an asset rather than a liability. Indeed, it is Rubio for whom immigration could prove an Achilles' heel. Cruz has recently described the Florida senator as a "moderate," faint praise that could presage sharper, later attacks.
Rollins, referring to Tuesday night's clash, said Cruz should avoid frontal attacks on Rubio.
"I would not debate Rubio if I were Cruz," he said. "I would just make my own points. They are the two most articulate, effective people, and that's enough at this point in time."
He added that Cruz is on an upward trajectory. For now, that may be all that matters.
"The critical thing now is who's going forward and who's going backward," Rollins said. "At this point, the guys moving forward are Cruz and Rubio."
Anyone who rates A+ from GOA can’t be all bad!!
#1 he is either perpetually in 3rd place, in single-digits, or even tied with Rubio. This “rise” seems to occur every week and then don’t.
#2”...he told a crowd in Little Rock, Ark., that he was focusing on that state and others in the South, including Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee,”..”
Which roughly translates into: I’m from the south and so are you, so you will automatically vote for me.
It’s the tried and multiple times failed strategy of the “firewall” where a candidate pretends like this thing called “momentum” does not exist from the previous primaries. A certain Mayor from NYC tried this too.
People in those states will look at the front-runners and previous winners and will fall in behind them like they have done in years past.
#3 If your whole run is based on not confronting anyone....then what is the rationale that people are going to reward you with big wins? Just because?
His strategy assumes that that Carson, Trump, and Rubio wont exist or will magically fall in support to the point where Cruz will just win be default!
This will require so many things happening in perfect conjunction in order to work. And if one thing goes off script, then his entire candidacy will evaporate in one day!
Please click on the pictures at the top of the columns for more details on the ratings of the candidates.
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Budget, Spending & Debt |  |
|
 |
|
|
| Civil Liberties |  |
|
|
|
|
| Education | |
|
|
|
|
| Energy & Environment | |
|
|
|
|
| Foreign Policy & Defense | |
|
|
|
|
| Free Market | |
|
|
|
|
| Health Care & Entitlements | |
|
|
|
|
| Immigration | |
|
|
|
|
| Moral Issues | |
|
|
|
|
| Second Amendment | |
|
|
|
|
| Taxes, Economy & Trade | |
|
|
|
|
More at Conservative Review: https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates
Note: If you don't like the ratings for any reason, please contact Conservative Review's Editor-in-Chief, "The Great One," Mark Levin. But I have to warn you that you may get this response from him: "GET OFF THE PHONE, YOU BIG DOPE!"
Trump's Record on Free-market Issue: (from the Conservative Review)
Trump has a terrible record on free market issues. The only bright spot is the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, but this glimmer is countermanded by his repeated support for bailing out Wall Street and the auto industry, and increased stimulus spending. Of particular concern is Trump's belief that the government can use eminent domain powers to seize private property in the name of private economic development. This comes as no surprise, given his support for using eminent domain to profit his own company.
Trump supported the Supreme Court’s 2005 decision in Kelo v. City of London, allowing public authorities to seize private land for economic development by private investors; Trump said, “I happen to agree with [the decision] 100 percent.” (National Review) This is no surprise given Trump’s attempt to use eminent domain in his own line of work. (Institute for Justice)
Trump supported President Obama’s 2009 stimulus, saying: “The word stimulus is probably not used in its fullest…you know, certain of the things that were given weren't really stimulus. They were pork, as we call it, or they were gifts to certain people. But overall, I think he's [President Obama] doing very well. You do need stimulus and you do have to keep the banks alive.” (CNN)
Trump supported TARP, saying, "You had to do something to shore up the banks, because ... you would have had a run on every bank." (CNN)
Trump supported the 2008 auto bailout, saying, “I think the government should stand behind them 100 percent. You cannot lose the auto companies. They’re great. They make wonderful products.” He also said that the federal government could “easily save the companies.” (Daily Caller)
Trump criticized the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the debt market, saying quantitative easing creates “phony numbers” that mislead the marketplace and “will not ultimately benefit the economy. The dollar will go down in value and inflation will start rearing its ugly head.” (CNBC)
Donald Trump has a history of using eminent domain to complete business deals. Multiple times Trump has supported the use of government agencies to take possession of homes and businesses for use in his private business plans. Eminent domain seizures are reserved only for public use of property rather than abuse by the government taking property from one individual and giving to another. (Washington Post)
Donald Trump has sought and received crony capitalist tax breaks for his commercial properties in New York. These tax breaks, and even an abatement, force the property taxes of other property owners to rise at the expense of the connected. Special treatment for one business or industry over another with the tax code conflicts with free market principles. (National Review)
In 2009, Trump supported Barack Obama's call for limits on the pay of executives. (CNN)
Cruz and Trump have effectively neutered the MSM - they can’t use their usual smear tactics anymore, so their only other option is to start asking tough policy questions. Cruz will knock those out of the park.
Hoisted on their own petard.
Donald Trump “surges” every day.
Trump pretty much stays on top. This stuff with Carson is so bizarre, no one can reasonably find an explanation for his support.
If a Scott Walker gets bounced from the race, then there is no rationale why people are lining up behind a Carson.
Good analysis.
Cruz may be missing an opportunity to show some strength by not campaigning in Florida. Lots of conservative southern voters in the state as well as a large Cuban population he could plug into.
If Cruz started polling ahead of Bush (or Rubio) in Florida it might help him in other places with folks who like him but don’t think he can win.
Yet all the media wants to talk about is the Rubio bump.
http://presidential-candidates.insidegov.com/compare/57-62-63/Rand-Paul-vs-Ted-Cruz-vs-Carly-Fiorina
http://presidential-candidates.insidegov.com/compare/50-62-64/Marco-Rubio-vs-Ted-Cruz-vs-Ben-Carson
Don’t worry, The Trumpelstiltskin Rollercoaster will be surging downwards very shortly.
Watch and see, once Ted Cruz is in first place in all the polls all the polls that had Trump once in first place suddenly become bad polls.
Also, once Ted Cruz is in first place ( God willing of course ) the Trump supporters will make Trump the shoe in sure guy Ted Cruz’s VP pick.....
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.