Posted on 12/27/2015 2:44:27 PM PST by smoothsailing
December 22, 2015
by Michael Walsh
What we have here might be a reverse Tom Bradley effect, as folks feel more comfortable pulling the lever for Trump in private, rather than confessing their choice to a pollster:
Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential field in polls of Republican voters nationally and in most early-voting states, but some surveys may actually be understating his support, a new study suggests. The analysis, by Morning Consult, a polling and market research company, looked at an odd occurrence that has cropped up repeatedly this year: Trump generally has done better in online polls than in surveys done by phone.
The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate -- online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer.
Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure. Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment" of an online survey, said the firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp.
The GOP establishment has taken some very faint heart recently from polls in Iowa showing Ted Cruz (whom they loathe almost as much as they hate Trump) nosing ahead of the billionaire blowhard still, by their lights, unaccountably lapping the field for the Republican presidential nomination. This won't make them feel very good, however:
Among the complicating factors is this: The gap between online and telephone surveys has narrowed significantly in surveys taken in the last few weeks. That could suggest that Republicans who were reluctant to admit to backing Trump in the past have become more willing to do so recently.
Some of the polls that show heavy support for Trump have also shown him doing better among self-identified independents who lean Republican than among regular GOP voters. At least some of those independents may not be in the habit of voting in primaries and caucuses, which could make a robust turnout operation even more necessary.
On the other hand, a candidate of Trump's level of celebrity may simply not need much of a get-out-the-vote operation. No one really knows.
Which is why -- choose your cliche -- they have horse races, and why they play the games on the field instead of in sportwriters' imaginations.
The Hallelujah Chorus may just be a lot bigger than a sliver of Republican primary voters now in revolt against the Republican Establishment.
The Donald has called upon us all to eschew “political correctness”, and his patented “Make America Great Again” phrase has struck a chord that cannot be stilled.
A LOT of the crowds that show up at The Donald’s rallies may never have voted for a Republican in their lives, or not voted for years, or even voted at all ever. But they are going home and registering, and spreading the gospel.
The “Bradley effect” has not panned out for many years....that said: I do think it will work for Trump somewhat. With the left & right so polarized these days there’s just not that many votes left in play. I give Trump a 2 or 3 point bump in the polls because of the “effect”.
As a side note to this thread, please consider the following.
When patriots elect Trump, or whatever conservative they elect as president, they will also need to elect a new, state sovereignty-respecting Congress that will work within its constitutional Article I, Section 8-limited powers to support the president.
An added benefit of such a Congress is that it will probably be willing to fire state sovereignty-ignoring activist justices.
....which is why the Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) are attacking him.
which candidate will fire the unelected bureaucrats?
which candidate will ask for the resignation of all DOJ attorneys?
which candidate will ACTUALLY build a wall rather than pay election time lip service?
Well, firing the unelected bureaucrats might be pretty hard. Seems there is this thing called the Civil Service Act. Anyone wanting to fire a bureaucrat has to go through the Civil Service Commission, which makes it darn near impossible to fire them.
Trump is going to clean house to the extent that the executive branchs constitutional powers will let him do it.
On the other hand, although Trump wants to build a border wall, he has to rely on Mexico to build it as he has indicated while campaigning. This is because even if Congress agreed with Trump to build a border wall, something that the corrupt, RINO-controlled Congress probably does not want to do if its costs incumbents votes, I do not see where in Congresss constitutional Article I, Section 8-limited powers that Congress has the constitutional authority to build such a wall.
Insights welcome.
We might just be seeing the residual impact of the GOPe budget surrender kick in. I'm guessing it will only increase.
Building it under the Commerce Clause is not (IMO) nearly so much a stretch as some of the other things that power has been abused to defend.
Or maybe just call it a really well defended Post road?
“Anyone wanting to fire a bureaucrat has to go through the Civil Service Commission, which makes it darn near impossible to fire them.”
Wouldn’t you just have to fire the civil service commission first?
“Trump is going to clean house to the extent that the executive branchs constitutional powers will let him do it. “
The congressional mandate for the wall was passed and signed by the president a decade or more ago. It was just not implemented.
He doesn’t need congress...
Especially since the ratification of the ill-conceived 17th Amendment, and also the corrupt FDR Administration, every federal law and official action must be checked against Congresss Article I, Section 8-limited powers.
It’s true that a new POTUS can’t come into power and “fire” every bureaucratic worker on day one.Nor should they be allowed to do so.
What a POTUS can/should do, is appoint competent management to all agencies, and command them to start the administration evaluation process,ethically and ruthlessly.
It’s not that hard to do. Within 90 days, it is possible to evaluate everyone in any given agency. Few Civil Service agencies will require a wholesale purge to get employees to simply do the tasks they were hired for, and are paid to do.
Done fairly, it empowers people, and gives them a chance to be proud of their individual daily work, and done properly, mitigates/negates the ever present human corruption factor.
Who would be the better POTUS / “boss” ?
Hillary or Trump?
The media; talking heads; RINO base; GOPe doesn’t even know the solid base that Trump is building...a lot of people will tell you sometimes, other times they won’t but you know by how they answer questions...
Trump is well liked by people that meet him, and by people he has working for him, and by people that have worked for him in the past...
That in itself is a lot of respect....
GO.TRUMP.GO!!!
it’s pretty much down to Trump or Cruz. I think Trump can win. It’s based on whose voters will show up the most.
It’s pretty much down to Trump or Cruz. I think Trump can win. It’s based on whose voters will show up the most.
That is a very good point. You rarely see any individual who has personally known Trump dislike him. Even a far lefty host on MSNBC (Larry O’Donnell) said to his audience, you are not going to like what I am about to tell you. He went on to say, I disagree with Trump’s policies, but you will be shocked to know that I actually like Trump. And he went on to tell his audience that when he was very sick and could not go to work for several weeks, Trump called him and wished him a speedy recovery, knowing I was going to criticize him on air when I got back to work!
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