Posted on 01/06/2016 12:34:48 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
Here's a news flash. The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary will not matter this year, at least not in the way they've mattered every four years for as long as I can remember. You can take that to the bank.
Allow me to explain.
First, have you ever wondered why two small and -- in general terms, politically irrelevant -- states have such a profound impact on primary politics? Have you ever wondered why those two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are like politics' own Kardashians -- famous because they're well-known, rather than for any innate value they bring to presidential politics.
Though neither state is representative of America at large, they're famous as the primary season's giant killers, taking down the seemingly most powerful primary candidates, generally on what seems like a whim.
Iowa's caucuses are almost bizarre in their byzantine complexity, and those caucuses only bring out the hard-core among primary-season voters. As a Nevada voter -- we have caucuses too -- I think the process is a bit strange; but Iowa takes that strangeness to an extreme. Instead of checking off a ballot and dropping it in a box, a caucus voter has to commit to several hours of interaction with neighbors and strangers, usually on a bitterly cold winter's night. Those who show up aren't really representative of Iowa voters, let alone America's voters. But they've managed to secure a seemingly unshakable "First in the Nation" status, and the media -- and political operatives -- take them seriously.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Ned Barnett was Communications Director for the Nevada Republican Party in 2010, at the height of the Tea Party movement. He has worked as media and strategy director for three state-level presidential campaigns, beginning with Gerald Ford -- where he worked with the late Lee Atwater. He was economic speechwriter for the first South Carolina Republican governor since Reconstruction, a man who later served in Reagan's cabinet. He now owns a marketing and communications consultancy in Las Vegas, and is working on a book on how to win political campaigns.
Is this List material?
my whole life, because of where I live, I have never had a choice in republican primaries. Whole system is screwed
I’ll listen to Ned Barnett over Karl Rove any day of the week.
Good post, thanks.
Those who show up aren't really representative of Iowa voters, let alone America's voters.The 2012 Iowa caucuses took place on Tuesday, January 3, starting at 7 p.m. CT. Incumbent president Barack Obama only faced minor opposition in the Democratic caucus and received 98% of the vote,[12] but the Republican caucus was heavily contested between several challengers. Initial results reported that Mitt Romney beat out Rick Santorum by just 8 votes,[13] but when the final results came out two weeks later Rick Santorum secured the victory over Romney by a margin of 34 votes with Ron Paul in a strong 3rd. Results were certified by the Caucus but not by the Republican party who declared it a split decision due to missing reports from 8 precincts,[14] but who later certified the caucus as a win for Santorum.[15] The caucus winner changed yet again when the Iowa delegate totals were finally determined giving Ron Paul the win along with several other states that same weekend.[citation needed]
In 2008 Edwards split the non-Obama vote to schlong Hillary and elevate The One.
If mud-wrestling with no rules is representative then Iowa is as good an example as any.
Surely a good Star Wars bar scene.
Don’t we have an article like this every four years?
I live in MA. I’ve cast one vote (for Scott Brown) that has had national significance. And in the end, that did not matter.
It makes one cynical.
I really really wonder if there would be articles like this is El Jebito was leading in the polls by an overwhelming amount like my guy.
both events are more media events and tradition than anything else. Candidates and potential candidates sit in diners talking to old people while drinking stale coffee and eating pasty waffles covered in corn syrup and pretending to listen..
They have become a way of life for consultants therefore have been banded as necessary.
It has become a way of life in NH, people feel they are entitled to get facetime with candidates or else..
EVERY state should have a Primary on the SAME DAY!! ONE DAY!! Election Day should only be ONE DAY ALSO!!! So much CHEATING goes on.
Because Iowa picked Santorum last time and Huckabee the time before?!
The Scott Brown vote mattered.....not because Brown was going to be a great conservative Senato for six terms or whatever - but that he won the Kennedy Seat in Massachusetts - something that “couldn’t be done.”
And did so railing against Obama Care. You have to take victories where you can, and it was a powerful symbolic victory.
That's true, but it does not really make the point. Santorum and Huckabee went no where because they were NEVER EVER going to be anything more than just niche evangelical candidates. There is no way either man was ever going to have broad national appeal. Trump or Cruz will win Iowa it appears - and when they do, they will be broad appeal candidates.
In the long run, we don't know if Iowa and NH will be significant THIS go round.....the fact that they weren't in 08 and 12 doesn't mean they may not be this time. I think Iowa is more important, given how liberal NH is.
>> Here’s a news flash. The Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary will not matter this year... Allow me to explain.
Here’s another news flash, pundit-boy.
Pundit-bois like YOU don’t matter this year.
So “explain” ‘til you’re blue in the face, if that makes your socks roll up and down. We’re not listening to you any more.
I’m an evangelical, but I wouldn’t vote for Santorum or Huckabee. I do like Trump, he’s run a successful national campaign on the cheap, and he understands economics in a way that no other candidate in either party does. Cruz is a popular guy, but I wouldn’t vote for him either, he talks a lot but I don’t see that translating into executive ability.
>> I think Iowa is more important, given how liberal NH is.
Iowa’s pretty darn liberal too, in a populist, drunk-on-corn-squeezin’s sort of way. If you get my drift.
Well, isn't that the way they did it in 1804? Go on, Granite Staters, grill those guys to within an inch of their lives. Live free or die!
yes I do - it’s more of a selective liberalism in Iowa than the full throated kind in NH - especially since so many NH residents came from NY or Conn.
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