Posted on 02/22/2016 4:51:16 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
James Beattie and Kevin Boyd already did scholarly work breaking down why Marco Rubio isn't well-positioned ahead of Super Tuesday. It would seem cruel to add to this Rubio pile-on, but let's do it anyways. I want to dispel once and for all with this fiction that Ted Cruz's campaign is somehow mortally wounded coming out of South Carolina.
This narrative is being pushed by Rubio supporters. And to be sure, Cruz did underperform on Saturday. The Palmetto State, with its fabric of evangelical conservatives and aversion to Yankee loudmouths like one Donald J. Trump, should have been more hospitable to the Texas senator, who's staked his entire campaign on his ability to win Southern votes. Instead, Trump walked away with a full ladle of social conservatives, relegating Cruz to a third-place finish behind Rubio. Not good.
But also not the meltdown of nuclear proportions that some Rubio cheerleaders are conjuring up. First of all, only 0.2 percent of the vote separated Cruz from Rubio. A swing of a mere 1,100 Republicans in Cruz's direction and the media would instead be chattering about how Rubio was the big loser of the - who am I kidding, they'd still be fawning over Rubio, but Cruz would look strong too. And let's also not forget that Rubio spent more money in the Palmetto State than Cruz, Trump, Carson, and Kasich combined, and almost twice as much as Cruz. It was big-spending, under-delivering Jeb who was the loser on Saturday, not Cruz.
Second, while South Carolina is indeed evangelical territory, it's also long had a fetish for well-trenched political establishments, which has been reinforced by northerners flooding into cities like Charleston. So while Cruz should have found a home in the Palmetto State, it was also fertile ground for Rubio in a way that southern states like, say, Oklahoma or Arkansas simply aren't.
Speaking of which, the upcoming geography also favors Cruz. Though he'll probably come in second or third in Nevada, the following Tuesday is the Dixie-flavored SEC primary, with plenty of southern states for Cruz to mine. According to Super Tuesday polls taken over the last 30 days, Cruz leads in his home state of Texas and in Arkansas—a win in either one could juice his campaign. In states where Rubio should do well, like Virginia and Massachusetts, his path is blocked by the indomitable Trump. Unlike Cruz, Rubio isn't leading in a single Super Tuesday contest.
Finally, Rubio's voters are more likely to switch to Cruz if their candidate drops out than Cruz's voters are to switch to Rubio if Cruz drops out. With Trump cutting into Cruz's evangelical demographic and sharing the Texas senator's purism over illegal immigration, the real estate mogul looms as a more potent second choice for Cruz supporters than Rubio. Meaning, if Rubio forfeits, then Cruz benefits, whereas if Cruz forfeits, then Trump benefits. Cruz is thus the more natural choice for an anti-Trump nominee, regardless of the so-called "establishment lane" that Rubio claims to be puttering down.
Any or all of this could change after Nevada and Super Tuesday. But right now, there's absolutely no impetus for Cruz to entertain the possibility of dropping out, and those who are preparing his obituary are engaging in the same sort of breathy prognostication that pronounced Trump dead after Iowa. Unlike Rubio, Cruz has won a state. Also unlike Rubio, he hasn't registered a catastrophic debate performance that led many observers to surmise that he was a cactus. Rubio voters desperately want Cruz to drop out - along with Carson and Kasich, and then maybe Trump, followed by Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and Vermin Supreme. It's a remarkable amount of entitlement for a candidate who has yet to show any ability to win.
Teds’ new motto “third is first” LOL!
I thought that was pretty funny.
all done... Ted won’t even win Texas
I’ve been around a couple years and I Dislike Cruz. Where can I get a job doing something I will actually enjoy?
Looks like even 2nd place is having a tough time getting outta the teens...
I am supporting Ted weekly in $$$$ right up to Florida on March 15th.
I wont vote for Trump, brown shirts piss me off.
Our primary here in Texas is one week away.
I’m ignoring all the naysaying Rumps and pushing the button for Ted because I prefer a Conservative.
Over Hillary Clinton with a comb over.
Love that pooch.
Rafael Milhous Cruz is a real Tricky guy.
After Texas he will be gone.
+1
I am thinking that many are retreads and/or many are 1 person making 2+ accounts to ‘agree’ with the other(s).. I had noticed that some of the noobs accounts are within a week of each other.
Geez, watching Fox you’d think he was below Carson!
If they mention Cruz at all!
So bloody obvious they’re in for Rubio....
I don’t even watch Fox News anymore, Fair and Balanced...what a lie.
I support Cruz more than ever. He is the only one running who will follow the Constitution.
Trump talks like he has adult ADD, can’t complete sentences, repeats over and over, “it’s going to be great. It will be amazing. We are going to win.” No substance. Shady business dealings- a real crony capitalist.
Then he attacks with name-calling. If you like a bully, I guess that is impressive.
This juvenile thing is usually aimed at Democrats. Cruz is head and shoulders above any other Republican candidate.
He is just another cult of personality. We have one now and how did that turn out.
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