Posted on 02/22/2016 4:51:16 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
James Beattie and Kevin Boyd already did scholarly work breaking down why Marco Rubio isn't well-positioned ahead of Super Tuesday. It would seem cruel to add to this Rubio pile-on, but let's do it anyways. I want to dispel once and for all with this fiction that Ted Cruz's campaign is somehow mortally wounded coming out of South Carolina.
This narrative is being pushed by Rubio supporters. And to be sure, Cruz did underperform on Saturday. The Palmetto State, with its fabric of evangelical conservatives and aversion to Yankee loudmouths like one Donald J. Trump, should have been more hospitable to the Texas senator, who's staked his entire campaign on his ability to win Southern votes. Instead, Trump walked away with a full ladle of social conservatives, relegating Cruz to a third-place finish behind Rubio. Not good.
But also not the meltdown of nuclear proportions that some Rubio cheerleaders are conjuring up. First of all, only 0.2 percent of the vote separated Cruz from Rubio. A swing of a mere 1,100 Republicans in Cruz's direction and the media would instead be chattering about how Rubio was the big loser of the - who am I kidding, they'd still be fawning over Rubio, but Cruz would look strong too. And let's also not forget that Rubio spent more money in the Palmetto State than Cruz, Trump, Carson, and Kasich combined, and almost twice as much as Cruz. It was big-spending, under-delivering Jeb who was the loser on Saturday, not Cruz.
Second, while South Carolina is indeed evangelical territory, it's also long had a fetish for well-trenched political establishments, which has been reinforced by northerners flooding into cities like Charleston. So while Cruz should have found a home in the Palmetto State, it was also fertile ground for Rubio in a way that southern states like, say, Oklahoma or Arkansas simply aren't.
Speaking of which, the upcoming geography also favors Cruz. Though he'll probably come in second or third in Nevada, the following Tuesday is the Dixie-flavored SEC primary, with plenty of southern states for Cruz to mine. According to Super Tuesday polls taken over the last 30 days, Cruz leads in his home state of Texas and in Arkansasâa win in either one could juice his campaign. In states where Rubio should do well, like Virginia and Massachusetts, his path is blocked by the indomitable Trump. Unlike Cruz, Rubio isn't leading in a single Super Tuesday contest.
Finally, Rubio's voters are more likely to switch to Cruz if their candidate drops out than Cruz's voters are to switch to Rubio if Cruz drops out. With Trump cutting into Cruz's evangelical demographic and sharing the Texas senator's purism over illegal immigration, the real estate mogul looms as a more potent second choice for Cruz supporters than Rubio. Meaning, if Rubio forfeits, then Cruz benefits, whereas if Cruz forfeits, then Trump benefits. Cruz is thus the more natural choice for an anti-Trump nominee, regardless of the so-called "establishment lane" that Rubio claims to be puttering down.
Any or all of this could change after Nevada and Super Tuesday. But right now, there's absolutely no impetus for Cruz to entertain the possibility of dropping out, and those who are preparing his obituary are engaging in the same sort of breathy prognostication that pronounced Trump dead after Iowa. Unlike Rubio, Cruz has won a state. Also unlike Rubio, he hasn't registered a catastrophic debate performance that led many observers to surmise that he was a cactus. Rubio voters desperately want Cruz to drop out - along with Carson and Kasich, and then maybe Trump, followed by Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and Vermin Supreme. It's a remarkable amount of entitlement for a candidate who has yet to show any ability to win.
There are many inaccuracies in your post but to start - Trump was leading by a wide margin in SC- no one expected Cruz to win.
Voting for Cruz as well.
Fox has exposed just how GOPe they are- and of course, they jump on every move Trump makes- thus feeding the one who sucks the oxygen from the planet and saving him money since he doesn’t have to run many ads.
.....nobody but Cruz expected himself to win....
You haven’t been keeping up.
Donald Trump, Jr. Speaks 2-22-16 Elko NV.
https://youtu.be/1IqfRbjcpDY
It’s a Q and A. Don Jr is more articulate than most candidates in the race! Talks fast, not in a patronizing way and not like he’s lecturing. Lots about government waste, small government, “the left”, the constitution, the second amendment.
“I’m probably the only billionaire’s son more comfortable in a D-10 Cat than a golf cart.”
He personally reloads 100 different calibers.
Don Jr is part of the full court press from Trump.
Very impressive.
Here’s another;
Donald Trump’s sons speak out before Iowa caucuses-interview-CNN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INI1POgLtfA
AMEN BROTHER!
Cruz can beat Trump head to head and whip his butt! But Rubio needs to get out! With Rubio in we are heading for an open convention and a much higher chance that the GOPe will cheat both Trump and Cruz!
I do not support him.
You do not support him, fine. I cannot stand Ted Cruz’s constant lying and sleezy status quo gutter politics. I bought his book, “A Time For Truth” and actually thought he was “the only principled candidate in the race”. He wasn’t.
Did you look up the winery sleaze by Trump? That is only one tiny example of his corruption. The press will eviscerate him in the general. If you thought they went after Romney for being a business man- look out if this nation is unfortunate enough to have Trump as a candidate.
Ted Cruz is leaving the race. Don’t waste your vote.
Vote for Carson.
Ted lies and misrepresents. Here are example of Ted’s lies of omission, seven lies and misrepresentations in under three minutes. That is walking the talk “the most principled conservative I the race”???
Lie 1 - Pro-abortion and supporting partial birth abortion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=197
Lie 2 - Trump is calling for the same socialized medicine as Sanders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=216
Lie 3 - pushed partial birth abortion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=239
Lie 4 - Even as a candidate Donald says we need to have full on socialized medicine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=298
Lie 5 - at the debates he said we ought to have socialized medicine like Canada and Scotland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=302
Lie 6 - If you as a republican don’t support socalized medicine you are heartless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=312
Lie 7 - If you want to see Bernie sanders style of socialized medicine Trump is your guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=RHgqFQ85uZs#t=335
After all these years of asking for a principled conservative, millions have flocked to a NY moderate...Democrat or Republican? The vast majority of his positions remind me of this image:
Ted is using Trump’s words against him - stings doesn’t it? Trump engages in name calling in response- not a quality I look for in a candidate. Trump waved his Bible as if he lives by it-just like Bubba. No integrity and shady business dealings.
No. Ted is telling half truths, i.e. lies of omission. He does it all the time. It’s sickening and people see through it. Proof is the blow out in NH and Ted not winning a single county in SC.
“Also known as a continuing misrepresentation, a lie by omission occurs when an important fact is left out in order to foster a misconception. Lying by omission includes failures to correct pre-existing misconceptions.”
I know, right?
That’s what I scream at the TV when Trump brags he hasn’t spent a lot of money but is way ahead of everyone else...
And, remember, Roger Ailes, head of Fox, was a GOPe media dude before...
Rubio has to deflate fast or there’s trouble ahead like you said.
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