Posted on 03/08/2016 4:51:59 AM PST by expat_panama
Upon close examination, February’s 242,000 payroll gain looks a whole lot like fool’s gold.
Far from putting the Federal Reserve on track to hike rates again in June, the best lousy jobs report ever — by one key metric — confirms that the slow-growth economy came uncomfortably close to stalling.
If the details of the payroll report are to be believed, aggregate weekly earnings of private employees fell 0.5% in February...
It’s clear that employers didn’t lay off workers en masse last month, so Wall Street economists mostly discounted the drop in hours and wages as statistical noise. But that’s a mistake, because there’s solid evidence that the job market seriously weakened in the first two months of the year.
Federal Tax Withholdings Slump
That proof comes, first and foremost, from the broadest and most timely reading on the health of the job market: federal income and employment tax withholdings.
For most of 2015, tax withholdings rose at a rate of 5% or more on a yearly basis, a combination of solid job growth and gains in wages, commissions and other incentive pay.
But revenue inflows to the Treasury Department steadily slowed...
The Fed’s own Labor Market Conditions Index, which brings together 19 different job-related indicators, fell 2.4 points in February, the worst drop since June 2009.
A number of economists downplayed the lousy aspects of the February payroll survey...
But a closer look explains why that strength can’t be trusted. Consider that the household survey showed a net 127,000 job losses in June and September, while the payroll survey showed that the economy added 377,000 jobs.
The bottom line is that the household survey is far from reliable over short time periods, and may appear to show rapid employment growth now only after seriously understating gains earlier in 2015.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Econ numbers don't lie.
What we got here are facts on actual payroll withholding showing plunging earnings---
---and the Fed's composite job market indicator:
Sure, left-wing pundits pick, chose, and distort, just as some of our freeper colleagues here throw up their hands and say that all numbers everywhere are all wrong.
The rest of us know that while figures don't lie, that liars figure.
Top 'o the morning waking up to mixed stock futures (pointing either up or down) while our hoards of gold and silver are now being offered $1,275.65 and 15.69. This comes after yesterday's quiet stock action ending mixed in soft trade but w/ small caps taking the lead.
No major econ reports today, but we got news:
Will Fed Spoil Another Run at Dow 18k? - Anthony Mirhaydari, Fiscal Times
The Markets Are Stretched, So I'm 'All-In Short' - Doug Kass, RealMoney
Are We Going to See S&P 2,500 Anytime Soon? - Avi Gilburt, MarketWatch
CA's Bullet Train Is Troubled, But Also Necessary - Michael Hiltzik, LAT
Jobs vs. Trump: A Tale of Two Con-Artists - Rob Enderle, CIO Magazine
Trump Takes Aim at the Tech Sector - Tony Romm & Nancy Scola, Politico
Blame Elites? They're All Economically Elite! - Michael Wolff, USA Today
In Bernie's Weird World, We'd All Be Equally Poor - Kerry Jackson, IBD
It Turns Out Most Workers Want to Have a Boss - Justin Fox, Bloomberg
Our population, legal plus illegal, is increasing faster than the jobs “created”.
“federal income and employment tax withholdings. “
That sounds like a good metric. I wonder where they find it. Another I always thought that would be good is California sales taxes. If you could get a monthly or better yet a weekly read on that you would have a pretty good idea of what’s happening.
Expat,
Please add my handle to your list when you have a moment.
Thanks very much!
Original Christian
PS: I tried private reply but my office security software would not let it process. Apologies to the thread that this is a public request. I hope you all have a great day! - OC.
Bad economic news is always “statistical noise”. Good economic news is always “Proof positive of a booming recovery”.
BFL
There’s a work around for that...
Click on “private reply” in the open forum (any FReeper will do, even yourself), it’ll open the mail and if you selected another FReeper’s handle, you replace the FReeper name with your name...type anything into the reply box and hit send...
You’ll then get into your mail and can then read or make any replies you need to.
Somehow this all reminds me how very much I like being self employed....
I feel like this part of most days.
Thanks...
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