Posted on 03/13/2016 3:09:42 PM PDT by dangus
In actual elections, Ted Cruz has outperformed polls by an average of at least 12 points. While national polls had put him down to Trump by ten to 33 points, he's only behind 6 points in the popular vote. That's despite the not-Trump vote being split 3 to 4 ways and the caucuses being under-represented by popular vote tallies. Most of Trump's victories have been in the Southeast, and that region will be entirely finished voting after Tuesday.
Here's some good news:
ABC poll says that Cruz has cut Trump's lead from 16 to 9 points, but even better Cruz beats Trump 54 to 41.
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1176a1The2016Primaries.pdf
Ohio looks like 66 more delegates that Trump won't be getting. He needs 1236 to avoid a floor fight, which he would certainly lose. The last three polls have Kasich winning or tied. But it might even go to Cruz. Over the last several polls, Cruz has gone from 22 points back (3/7, Quinnipiac), to 15 points back (3/8, Fox), to 14 points back (3/10, MSNBC) to only 6 points back (3/11, CBS/YouGov).
He's only 4 points back in the latest Illinois poll (CBS/YouGov), pulling his poll average (9 points, RCP) to below the 12 points that the polls usually underestimate him by.
He's also only 7 points down in Missouri, according to Ft. Hays St. University. Their poll of neighboring Kansas underestimated Cruz's strength by THIRTY-SEVEN points.
My predictions:
Ohio: Hard to call, because Kasich is to big of an "X" factor, but Trump is more likely to wind up in 3rd than in 1st.
Illinois: 1. Cruz, 2. Trump, 3. Kasich, 4. Rubio (Trump wins 15 delegates by winning the Chicago suburbs.)
Missouri: 1. Cruz, 2. Trump, 3. Kasich, 4. Rubio
Florida: 1. Trump, 2. Cruz, 3. Rubio, 4. Kasich.
North Carolina: 1. Cruz, 2. Trump, 3. Rubio, 4. Kasich
End result: Cruz catches up a little in the delegate count; it becomes extremely difficult for Trump to reach 1,236 delegates. Rubio drops out. Kasich declares victory, but becomes a non-factor.
ORLY?
I'm not a Cruz supporter, but can you tell me if this poll was taken before or after Cruz's comments about violence the other night? It would be interesting to see if there is a before and after change either way.
Cruz has yet to win a state east of the Mississippi. He’s always come in second or third.
Dangus, can you tell us the next state Cruz will win Tuesday?
“Ohio: Hard to call, because Kasich is to big of an “X” factor, but Trump is more likely to wind up in 3rd than in 1st.”
This is why Cruz and his supporters are seen as just pathetic trolls at this point.
Just make it up as you go, and when you are wrong....just disappear for 24 hours and make up some new nonsense.
How many people on this forum have been a participant in any of these polls?
A show of hands please?
He did win Maine. But he doesn’t do well in states with diverse populations. Nor does he do well in open primaries.
These same guys were telling us that Cruz was going to “surprise” and win both Michigan and Mississippi as well.
Ft. Hays State University is IN Kansas where they understated Cruz’s total by 37 points, so now you expect us to believe they are more accurate in polling another state like Missouri?
As Aerosmith would say ‘Dream On’
VDK, what’s YOUR prediction for Ohio?
4 points back in the latest Illinois poll
Illinois is actually 20 distinct primaries. There is one in each of 19 Cong district with 3 delegates per district. Then there is the statewide contest that has few delegates.
Which IL Cong Districts will be winner take all for Cruz?
for Kasich? for Trump? Which candidates ran statewide and which focused on just a couple districts?
The Blue districts have a smaller number of Republicans ... but the same number of delegates. So they are easier to capture. So which candidates focused on the easy districts to win?
I look forward to revisiting this thread on Tues. evening.
Go, Ted, go!
So Maine is on the west coast? Who knew?
Canadian cross-over votes...
I suspect those polls were taken before Cruz came out and blamed the Chicago mob protests on Trump. Cruz supporters were not happy about it.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3408783/posts
I hope Cruz is over soon. We need TRUMP to fight back Islam, IA’s & TPP. That will be dashed if Harvard grad-Canadian Cruz wins.
I have been polled on the Oklahoman Presidential Primary Poll. It was published by the Daily Oklahoman last month.
Laughable.
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