Posted on 03/14/2016 9:16:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
It's not impossible that Donald Trump finishes in third place in Ohio. The latest Ohio polls show a barn-burner between John Kasich and Trump, but they also show a distinctive Ted Cruz surge in the past 10 days.
Snapshot
Six pollsters have surveyed Ohio Republicans in March. RealClearPolitics averages the last four, and derives an average that shows Kasich up 35.3 percent, two points ahead of Trump. Ted Cruz's average over those four polls is 20 percent. Rubio is in single digits in all four polls and will finish fourth in Ohio.
One of four polls (PPP) shows Trump leading. Two show a Kasich lead, and the CBS/YouGov poll shows a 33 to 33 tie. Cruz is in the teens in most polls but CBS has him at 27 percent.
Trend
Kasich shows very little movement. In five of the six surveys this month, he's been between 32 percent and 35 percent.
The only significant movement suggested by these polls is a migration of voters from Trump to Cruz over the course of this month. In the first three polls of March, Trump averaged 39 percent. In the three more recent polls he averages below 32 percent.
In the first three polls, Cruz hovered at 15 or 16 percent. Since then, he's scored 19 percent, 19 percent, and now 27 percent. Even if that 27 percent is overstated, it's hard not to posit a Cruz climb. Splitting the six latest polls this way — the earlier three and the later three — shows a Trump drop of about 7 points and an equal Cruz surge.
It's a leap to say this data represents Cruz picking off Trump supporters, but it's not a huge leap. Going by the PPP poll, 9 percent of Ohio Republicans were Trump supporters with a positive view of Cruz, and another 5 percent were Trump supporters unsure of what they thought of Cruz. About 6.5 percent of voters were Trump supporters who held Cruz as a second choice, and 15 percent were Trump voters unsure of their second choice.
Reading the tea leaves
Despite his lead in more polls, and his lead in the RCP average, Kasich has to consider himself tied with Trump in the polls. It's close enough that turnout operation and similar factors matter.
One factor: Kasich has favorability ratings around 70 in recent polls. Trump is well below 50 percent. Nothing has happend in recent days to drag Kasich down. The lowest margin-of-error poll (806 likely voters by Fox News) showed Kasich winning by 5 points.
Here's a key detail: None of these polls were conducted after Trump shut down his own Chicago rally because of protesters. This incident will have both upward and downward effects on Trump's standing. The net effect is impossible to predict ahead of time.
I predict a shart shift from Cruz to Trump after Friday night. I have personally spoken to some, read many Tweets, and seen 300,000 FB “friends” leave Cruz over that crap.
It will eventually come down to Trump vs Cruz.
ohhh...bummer. So hoping Trump could obliterate here
I see parsing data and words to shape an argument to support a predetermined conclusion has been honed to a fine art.
The only problem is that we have seen this before every primary state election and it leaves me to wonder, will Lucy finally allow Charlie to kick the ball?
I am also a Cruz supporter.
Yep.
The GOPe strategy is still to stop Trump AND Cruz.
Always has been.
Hopefully Cruz is both siphoning off votes from Kasich (because people see a Kasich vote as a waste) AND losing support because of his Chicago comments. Fingers crossed that Trump can pull off a win!
Kasich has shot both his feet off. First, he came out clearly for AMNESTY for illegal aliens. Then ,if that wasn’t enough, he makes two appearances with loser romney today in OHIO!!! Thank you Lord!!! Go Trump!!!!
Cruz is already tanking in FL, NC and OH due to his siding with the GOPe and BLM thugs. Nice try CW. Cruz is done after tomorrow. You’re going to have a lot of time on your hands.
Thanks for the update LS!
Here in MN, the Socialist Scandinavians still believe the MSM mantra that Trump is promoting violence.
No big surprise they backed Rubio.
Selecting poll choosing and they were all BEFORE Cruz’s duplicitous Friday night’s trashing of the First Amendment.
I think that all the gOPe has done is get stopped by US!
(Then I woke up)
Cruz has lost 300,000 fakebook friends since Friday? Is that a fact?
What would be tough is if Trump gets another small-plurality win because of the divided field, say, Trump 32, Cruz 31, Kasich 30, Rubio 7. And Trump gets all the delegates. That would be depressing.
Yes. I had a call last night from a known conservative novelist-—has had a #1 bestseller. You would know him. Big Cruz guy. Said Friday really shook him. He wasn’t sure about Cruz now.
Watching Trump town hall in Hickory NC right now and he hasn’t said much if anything about KaySick and Ohio. What does he know that we don’t?
With all the ammunition against Kaysick on FR today, why isn’t Trump all over him? Hmmmmmmm
Also, a couple of huge Cruz Twitter followers-—all they did was defend him. Dropped him after Friday. It’s real, and it’s deep.
There is no excuse for Cruz blaming Trump for an organized communist disruption of a Trump political rally!! Cruz should be ashamed and withdraw in disgrace!!Does he blame Trump that a U.S. flag stomping communists tried to get up on the stage in DAYTON? Cruz has lost it. He lost it with the TPP but this isn’t policy this is rank lying! TUMP HAS NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR Communists AGITATORS FROM Soros/ Sanders/ Bill Ayers . Give me a break!
You mean other than Kasich promising amnesty in the first 100 days?
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