GOP update, pre-New York

Princeton Election Consortium ^ | April 18th, 2016 | Sam Wang

[monkapotamus]

Tomorrow, New York votes, a critical race in the Republican primary campaign. Above is a final snapshot, based on polls and voting patterns to date. This calculation gives a median Trump outcome of 1265 pledged delegates (interquartile range or IQR, 1210 to 1305 delegates). The probability of getting 1237 or above is is 64%.

This represents very little change from last week. Below are some technical notes, as well as state-by-state snapshots. I have updated my methods (details documented here) slightly. For the first time, I now specify the states for which there are no polls. Most notably, I handicap Indiana as Trump +7%...

[Yashcheritsiy]

We’ve got to stop this!!!!

C’mon Cruzers, time to get our stealin’ boots on and get out there to stop Trump!

[napscoordinator]

Holy cow a lot of work and I like the outcome. :-). Thank you for doing this for us.

[Jane Long]

The probability of getting 1237 or above is is 64%.

Ut oh.....bots won't be happy about this 😂

[freespirit2012]

Maybe Cruz could get enough voters on the rules committee so that he can make a rule that says if you win Colorado you will be the nominee?

[freespirit2012]

Let me change that rule for Cruz to say that whoever has the most delegates from Colorado is the nominee..

[Canedawg]

The bots only rejoice when delegates are surreptiously snagged.

[Resettozero]

C’mon Cruzers, time to get our stealin’ boots on and get out there to stop Trump!

Eduardo stole mine.

[usafa92]

And Dr. Wang’s estimate for NY is at 86, which is about right. Trump should snag 85-90 delegates here. But it’s good to see statistically speaking that Dr. Wang is predicting a blowout in NY (Chart says 68 which is wrong. He describes that later in the comments section).

[dartuser]

The closer we get to the convention, the harder it will be for the MSM to prop up the brokered convention narrative.

Trump will have 1300+ easy ...

[NYRepublican72]

My back of the envelope math has it at about the same as Dr. Wang in the 53-57% range.

Trump will come close to sweeping every CD if he manages to get over 60%.

[usafa92]

My only red flag in Dr. Wang’s analysis is the 57 delegate sweep he’s forecasting for Indiana. But that said, his 115 delegate haul in Cali may be low.

[freeangel]

http://www.youngcons.com/complete-breakdown-of-the-actual-delegate-count-as-it-stands-right-now/

[spokeshave]

1237....that's incendiary talk...

...just flushing out the GOPe with fire...

[Pollster1]

Confidence is nice, but so is realism. If you’re a Trump supporter anywhere, see if there is someplace you can man the phones to get out the vote in NY. If you’re in NY, see if you can help drive Trump voters to the polls. Trump’s “magic” is a nice thing to believe in, but I’m certain that it works a whole lot better with more helping hands.

And Cruz voters, go for it too. Get the Cruz supporters to the polls in NY. I’m sure that by now people forgot the “New York values” comment he made.

[tenthirteen]

if you’re sure NY’ers forgot Cruz’ New York values then I submit you’re just not a NY’er.

[Cobra64]

You forget that Acorn is still in business, albeit, under a different name I think.

[Pollster1]

if you’re sure NY’ers forgot Cruz’ New York values then I submit you’re just not a NY’er.

You didn't consider the possibility that you were reading sarcasm?

[Albion Wilde]

Second post of this important pre-election day.
Final list between midnight and 1 AM EDT.

Make America Great Again

Ping!

This ping provides two daily lists of links to Trump-related threads on FR,
to simplify your search for information.
If you are a Trump opponent, you won't be happy here.

To be added to or dropped from this ping list,
post your request on the thread below or freepmail to Albion Wilde.

* * *

Selected Trump articles on FR, from 10:15 AM to 5:30 PM EDT, 4/18/16:
GOP update, pre-New York –PrincetonElectionCommission
McConnell 'optimistic' convention goes to a second ballot (RINO Rat!) –AP
Donald Trump is a visionary with talents our country needs –JewishTelegraphicAgency
Romney: 3-man race throws Trump the nomination –CNN
Pro-Trump 'Apprentice' stars go to war...after fellow contestants denounce The Donald as racist –DailyMail
Final New York polling results [Trump 57, Kasich 22, Cruz 20] –Gravis
Woo hoo!! Please keep those donations coming in, folks. [FReepathon] –Jim Robinson
Donald Trump Hailed as Hometown Hero in Staten Island –Time
Unreal – Paul Ryan Schedules Party Leadership Fundraiser at Home of Anti-Trump Super-PAC Donor –Sundance
Trump: If I win, I might oust RNC chairman –CNN
NBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll: Trump dominates NY — both upstate and downstate –HotAir
Why Trump may be costing Democrats millions for their convention –Politico
The Donald’s Diversity Deconstructed –AccuracyInAcademia
Ted Cruz is going to be mathematically eliminated from securing 1,237 delegates by next Tuesday –Fox
The Trump Chess Board –Scott Adams
45% of Americans pay no federal income tax –MarketWatch
Trump Soars in Latest CA, NY, CT, MD, PA Polls [California: Trump 49% Cruz 31% Kasich 16%] –Mish

[tenthirteen]

good call...seems that I read so much of this it’s getting more difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.