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A Princeton University polling expert who said he would eat a bug if Donald Trump got more than 240 electoral votes has followed through on his promise. Sam Wang, of the Princeton Election Consortium, made good on his Twitter word on CNN Saturday. He ate from a can of gourmet-style crickets and added in some honey. …

Tomorrow, New York votes, a critical race in the Republican primary campaign. Above is a final snapshot, based on polls and voting patterns to date. This calculation gives a median Trump outcome of 1265 pledged delegates (interquartile range or IQR, 1210 to 1305 delegates). The probability of getting 1237 or above is is 64%. This represents very little change from last week. Below are some technical notes, as well as state-by-state snapshots. I have updated my methods (details documented here) slightly. For the first time, I now specify the states for which there are no polls. Most notably, I handicap...

[Note: this  is a work in progress. I'm basically seeking comment as I develop a November predictive model. Please give your feedback... -Sam]I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than today’s PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities –...