Posted on 04/21/2016 5:33:24 AM PDT by dennisw
But it’s probably not enough as he tries to secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before reaching the GOP convention in Cleveland. The most likely scenario will have Trump getting about 1,185 delegates. Here’s why.
New York marks a crucial geographic segue in the race, as the calendar turns away from the Ted Cruz-friendly interior and into Trump’s mid-Atlantic wheelhouse. With 156 bound delegates at stake next Tuesday, the test for Cruz and John Kasich will be how many they can pick off.
You can start by penciling in 39 delegates for Trump as the likely statewide winner in Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland. Exceeding the 50 percent mark in Connecticut would mean another 13 delegates that would otherwise be split among the field.
And Trump can expect to win about half of Rhode Island’s 19 proportionally allotted delegates. The rest will be awarded to the respective winners of each congressional district.
The best delegate-poaching opportunity for Kasich comes in the affluent Maryland suburbs of Washington, DC, where polls show Trump dead last behind Cruz. Winning three or four districts between the Beltway and the Connecticut Gold Coast would be a big success. The best news for Trump opponents is that the single biggest trove of delegates will be the 54 unbound Pennsylvanians elected independently of candidate affiliation or obligation. While many have pledged to support the winner of the state or their district, all would be in play in Cleveland, a wrinkle that complicates Trump’s path.
The Mountain West has been inhospitable terrain. The Pacific Northwest states split their delegates proportionally. And even West Virginia, in the heart of Trump’s Appalachian sweet spot, has a delegate system so complicated that he may come away shortchanged.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
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_________THE FULL BREAKDOWN IS AT THE SOURCE__________
Good!
The full breakdown may well be in Cleveland.
After watching his performance on the Today show this morning, I believe it is possible he doesn’t make 1237.
Voting for President in a particular state has National implications. As such, these primaries should be identical in each state. Enough of these sates with complicated delegate nonsense.
What did he do?
Where’s the big headline that say’s “Cruz likely to 300-400+ delegates short of Nomination?”
???
Silly. I have him at 1170 WITHOUT Indiana, without a single delegate from MT, NM (which is polling big in his direction right now), NE, SD, and very, very low splits in OR and WA.
He will get 1200, and more than likely closer to 1300.
But dream on, little Cruzer, dream on.
The author’s 1185 is something of a low-end estimate. Even at that, there are still 132 uncommitted delegates. If Trump gets a proportional share of those, he is in on the first ballot.
Gee, I guess you will be voting for Cruz because of this performance, right? Do you still have your cruz statue on your dash?
This guy can’t do basic math.
Trump has 103 with MD, PA (being generous to the anti-Trump side), MD, DE. 103-his 57=1283 . . .
WITHOUT a single one of Carson’s, Paul’s, or any of the unbound Virgin Islands delegates (another 30). Give him half of those for . . . 1298.
Or, close enough to my 1300 estimate.
Cruz got skunked in NY, and may very well come in dead last in the next 5 primaries. By this time next week Cruz will be about 400 delegates behind Trump, well over 2 MILLION popular votes behind, and 20 states or more behind.
If he doesn’t, he is mathematically eliminated.
So much for conservative principles of a Federal Republic.
The founders weep.
I didn’t see the whole thing, but I saw him support pervs (Jenner) using bathrooms of the opposite sex and wants to change RNC platform on abortion to include rape and incest. But what I thought was interesting is when a woman whose family has been here illegally for 25 years asked if he’d deport them, he almost said they’d be fine, then he went into the “they have to leave” thing. To me, it looked like he has no intention of deporting, but I’d have to watch it again.
Everybody in the media is wishing for a wild wide open convention, but it isn’t going to happen. Even if Trump is “52” short after CA, he has more than a month to convince that many uncommitted delegates which will be easy. I think eventually, he will strike a deal with Kasich who he will pick as VP>
Anything for Trump.
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