Posted on 06/28/2016 1:04:34 PM PDT by Kaslin
Dear Trump supporters,
A recent ABC/Washington Post poll of “registered voters” purports to show that Donald Trump lags 12 points behind Hillary Clinton in a national head-to-head contest. In case you’re inclined to accept this at face value—don’t.
First, this poll does indeed purport to gauge preferences nationally. Ultimately, what’s going to matter is how the candidates fare in the battleground states. For example, a Pew Poll from just last week showed Trump beating Clinton by two points in North Carolina (a state that Barack Obama won in 2008).
Secondly, it is June. The election isn’t until November.
Thirdly, this poll focuses on how “registered voters,” not likely voters, say they would vote if the election was held today. There are lots more registered voters than there are people who will actually come out to vote.
Fourthly, as the pollsters themselves admit, this poll is heavily stacked in favor of Democrats: the latter constitute 37% of registered voters while only 27% of Republicans count for the same.
Fifthly, ABC and the Post acknowledge that had they used the same party division numbers that they used in their poll from last month, Clinton would be up a full one-third less (8%) than this poll shows her leading now.
Sixthly (and isn’t this interesting?), a Wall Street/NBC News—a poll, that is, taken at the same time as the ABC/Post poll—shows Clinton with a five point lead in a national head-to-head matchup (46%-41%). However, when third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are thrown into the mix, Clinton and Trump are in a virtual dead-heat with 39% and 38%, respectively.
The ABC/Post poll questioned 836 registered voters. The Wall Street/NBC poll questioned 1,000 such voters.
Both surveys were conducted during the week of June 19-23, a week during which Trump fired his campaign manager. And Trump’s had a bad June. Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who conducted the Journal poll with Democrat Fred Yang, summed up their findings well: “Donald Trump has had the worst month one can imagine, but Clinton’s negatives are so high the net impact on the ballot is almost invisible.” Yang added: “The fact that Donald Trump had a really bad period and he went down just a few points indicates that it will be difficult for either candidate to break out given the hard-set division in the electorate.”
In other words, contrary to what ABC and the Washington Post would have us think, Clinton does not have a 12 point lead over Trump. This election isn’t close to coinciding with the impression that they’re working so hard at conveying.
Think about this: There are two polls of registered voters taken in the same period of time by well-known media outlets. The one proclaims that the Democratic nominee leads the Republican by twelve points. The other declares that her lead is only five points, but even then notes that with the third party candidates thrown into the mix, the two are tied!
And by the way, the NBC poll shows Trump leading Clinton with the much coveted “independent” vote by double digits.
Seventh, other than as a mechanism by which to manipulate voters into voting for those candidates that the pollsters and media favor, and other than as a means by which pollsters can earn a living and the media can increase their profits, there is absolutely no reason why anyone needs to learn five months in advance how a select sample of people claim they would vote in a hypothetical contest.
Five months is an eternity in politics—and these pollsters and “journalists” know it.
Eighthly, Trump brought millions of otherwise disenchanted people back into politics, and he garnered more votes in the GOP primaries than did any other Republican in American history. And yet now we are expected to believe that millions more have turned against him?!
This is crucial: Not only Trump, but his supporters, have not only been demonized by both the Democrat-friendly media and Republican NeverTrumpers; they have been the objects of physical intimidation and assault. It has become dangerous to be a Trump supporter. There is no such danger to being an Obama, a Clinton, or a Sanders supporter, for Republicans generally and Trump supporters specifically just don’t unleash violence upon those of their fellow Americans with whom they disagree. It doesn’t happen.
But as for left-wing thugs—not “protesters,” but cowardly, criminal punk-thugs—violence is the air that they breathe. And they’ve been visiting this violence upon attendees at Trump rallies and anyone else who they suspect of being a Trump backer.
It’s not at all implausible to think that many are fearful of expressing publicly their support for the Republican nominee. They may not necessarily fear being beaten up. But they most definitely fear for their livelihood, reputation, and property, for they know that once they admit that Donald Trump is their man, their opponents will seek to brand them as “racists” and “fascists.”
Finally, the polls found that Trump is losing to Clinton because while 90% of Democrats back their nominee, only 77% of Republicans are backing theirs.
The GOP NeverTrumpers, the very same folks who chastised Trump for his initial refusal last August to pledge to support the GOP nominee, could now imperil his victory because of their refusal to do the same.
If so; if their fantasy comes true and Trump loses, they should be mindful that the millions who back Trump will not forget. NeverTrump could very well give way to NeverGOP—and the neocon establishment Republicans will lose power for a generation.
Given the facts documented in today’s Committee Report, the GOP’ers who are Hillary enablers-by-default may want to consider whether, when their 3 o’clock call goes out, her “Experienced Highness” will come to their rescue
I fell for this nonsense and apologize to all if I seemed a concern troll.
I’m just a worrier.
Four way is a tie for them.
We can win this.
Please, if you hate making calls or knocking on doors, donate 10 or 20. Make sure friends are registered, AND they actually vote.
Military people get your ballots in early!!
The dems are going to use every trick and break every law to win.
I wish Trump would put into action NOW some way to adjust the voting count system.
In 2010, Independents comprised 24% of the electorate. By 2014 it was 42%, and was leaning strongly anti-establishment and mostly conservative.
Independents will put Donald Trump over the top.
Nice analysis, the face of American politics is about to change for the best. Kiss the GOPe goodbye.
BTW, I tweet this to him often,
DONT WAIT TILL AFTER ELECTION TO CRY FRAUD!! GET THE VOTING SYSTEM INVESTIGATED AND FIXED NOW!!
I’m sure nobody sees it lol
There are also many white working class Democrats who are not at all happy they’re being ignored by their own party. It’s possible Trump could get 10 to 20% of their votes in Rust Belt battleground states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Reagan democrats redux. They and the Perotistas are the demographics that sank (by no vote) Romney in 2012, and for good reason.
Hillary gets crushed and loses with a historic margin, taking every down ballot candidate with her
then, she gets indicted and arrested for treason and murder of our people in Benghazi
Obama is diagnosed with an incurable, fast-moving sexually transmitted disease that renders him unable to speak
Michelle O finally comes out as Michael Robinson
President Trump engineers a breathtaking series of trade deals that completely clears the national debt in his second term of office
“Finally, the polls found that Trump is losing to Clinton because while 90% of Democrats back their nominee, only 77% of Republicans are backing theirs.
The GOP NeverTrumpers, the very same folks who chastised Trump for his initial refusal last August to pledge to support the GOP nominee, could now imperil his victory because of their refusal to do the same. “
The SAME type of Establishment Elitist Jerks who helped kill Barry Goldwater and gave us Lyndon B, Johnson and the Viet Nam catastrophy.
I view polls as an annoyance that slant towards media bias. I pay no attention to them. Come election evening when the media are forced to announce a TRiUMPh things will be right in this world.
The polls should be ignored until Trump has been formally nominated.
I say this is a good thing. The lazy dope smokers will read the fake polls and not vote for the beast!
not worried.......
Polls that give that arrogant pos occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave a 55 percent approval rating should also be ignored. His real approval rating is most likely only 15 percent
And President Trump repeals a bunch of onerous regulations thereby helping America become energy independent through an all-of-the-above approach.
The GOPer’s need to realize that Hillary LACKS leadership skills and experience.
Got to remember that folks are going to lie to the poll folks so they can be left alone.
And how about all the freeloaders go home and decide to fix their own countries. And the muzzies decide they’re better off in their corner of the world.
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