Wargaming the Electoral College

PJ Media ^ | September 7, 2016 | Stephen Green Vodka Pundit

[Kaslin]

You've probably seen the above map already, or ones very much like it, showing Hillary Clinton's prohibitive lead in the Electoral College. In my previous Wargaming column from four weeks ago, Clinton's worst-case scenario gave her a squeaker 273-265. And that, I must reiterate, was her worst-case outcome as of just four weeks ago.

But then Donald Trump went to Mexico in what might prove to have been a game-changer. It is already at the very least a direction-changer -- if the massive new WaPo/SurveyMonkey poll is to be believed.

Let's look at the maps based on that poll of nearly 75,000 voters.

States with a solid 4-point or better lead.

First, a caveat. SurveyMonkey's poll is only of Registered Voters, and this close to Election Day you really want to start whittling your results down to likely voters. Here's what SurveyMonkey said about it:

This Washington Post-SurveyMonkey 50-state poll was conducted online Aug. 9 - Sept. 1 among 74,886 registered voters. The sample was drawn among the respondents who completed user-generated polls using SurveyMonkey’s platform during this period, and results are weighted to match demographic characteristics of registered voters in each state. No margins of sampling error are calculated, as this statistic is only applicable to randomly sampled surveys.

That aside, the sheer size of the sample plus SM's weighting method ought to be more than enough to lend credence to their numbers.

When I began the 2016 Wargaming series in July, I showed you Trump's "northern route" to 270, taking the fight through PA, OH, MI, WI, and MN. By August that route had appeared to have closed. But if we look at SurveyMonkey's results from the four-way race (GOP, Dem, Libertarian, Green) we see that that route may have re-opened.

In the map above, I've colored states where either Trump or Clinton has at least a four-point lead over the other. The results look much like they did two months ago, with Clinton comfortably above 200, and Trump uncomfortably well below 150.

But let's look a little deeper.

Leaners with a 3-point margin.

To get a feel for the leaners, I've taken the states where Clinton or Trump has a three-point lead, and colored them in a lighter shade of blue or red -- and shockingly, Texas and Colorado are still unshaded.

Gary Johnson seems to be sucking the life out of Clinton in Colorado, and out of Trump in Texas. He's also hurting Trump in Arizona and North Carolina, and putting the squeeze on Clinton in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Unsurprisingly, Nevada and PA are going blue in this map, and Florida remains as delightfully crazy and un-callable as ever.

But what about those elusive Likely Voters -- the voters who actually, you know, vote? It's a well-established political fact that pool of Likely Voters lean more Republican than the broader field of Registered Voters, typically by two to four points.

So what if I were to put my thumb of SurveyMonkey's scale, and spot Trump three points across the board?

Likely Voter Edge

BOOM.

Clinton has the same 218 Electoral College votes we saw on the initial SurveyMonkey map, but Trump has shot up to a slim lead of 239, if we include the new leaners. And that "northern route" I first mentioned two months ago is almost wide open, with Clinton retaining her lock only on Minnesota. Ohio, which no Republican has ever been elected without winning, now leans Trump. And MI, PA, and WI are up for grabs.

The only holdout out west is NV, and Florida -- as ever! -- remains as delightfully crazy and un-callable as ever.

Earlier today the Washington Post reported that "despite long odds," Trump was making his biggest media buy to date in Virginia. And indeed those odds are long, as VA hasn't budged from blue in weeks, and not even the surpassingly strong third-party runs of Johnson and Jill Stein are making a dent in Clinton's lead there.

Trump instead ought to look west to the Rocky Mountains, and north, north, north to the Rust Belt states which Democrats have taken for granted -- and run into the ground -- for decades.

(All maps created with 270toWin's iPad app, which is highly recommended. Perfect for fiddling with on the sofa while you watch the news. If you prefer to do your wargaming in a browser tab, the website is great, too.)

[blueyon]

great site..........thanks. Hope mine is right, Trump gets over 289 :)

[FamiliarFace]

Indiana has been Trump’s ever since Pence was announced. Don’t know why the first graph had it white. I’ve only seen one Hiilary sign anywhere I’ve been in the state. Hundreds of Trump signs. Not even close.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Must ... get... PA and FL.

[Redmen4ever]

Terrific post

Assuming Trump wins the red and pink shaded states PLUS ME-2 (1), then he only needs FL (29) (indicated to be a toss-up) to win (with 269 EVs and win in the House of Representatives). So, properly understood, the SM poll says, at this time, Trump’s a 50-50 proposition.

He can alternately win by taking 30 EVs from PA (20), MI (17), WI (10) and NV (6), each one of which is indicated to be a toss-up. So, Trump is better than a 50-50 proposition.

[upchuck]

Before the Electoral College, we need to minimize the RAT voter fraud on 11/8/16. That can be done by Trump winning by a large enough margin that it can’t be overcome by fraud.

I’m thinking it will take somewhere around 8-15 percent to do it.

[Nifster]

For starters the only poll out for Georgia is an AJC poll. For the record that group had Carter winning the governs hip and Nunn winning the senate seat. It polls in metro ATL and mostly in areas that vote Reed

[Reverend Wright]

I can see this thing ending up 269-269. Give Trump FL and that CD in Maine, and you are there.

Or PENN, New Hampshire and NV

or PA and WI

or VA, MI and ME2

or VA, WI, NV and ME2

or Trump loses CO but wins FL and WI

or -CO but wins FL, NH, NV

or -CO but wins PA, WI, NV, wins ME loses CD1 or... or

or MI, WI and NH

or Trump loses OH... there are many more plausible combos to 269-269

[WalterSkinner]

..right about 300 EVs for Trump is doable...

[Kaslin]

That is true

[BuffaloJack]

I live in the western part of New York State.
During the last election, it was pointed out that if every voter north and west of NY City voted Republican, NY City would still carry all the votes of the state for the Dems.
Thus, I have no meaningful vote.
I wish the Western part of NY State would secede and become a separate state.

[Angels27]

I am a poll watcher. This is how my current map shapes based on all the state polls out there right now. It is a dead heat.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

[Organic Panic]

Obama will fix that map.

[Monterrosa-24]

“...if every voter north and west of NY City voted Republican, NY City would still carry all the votes of the state for the Dems...”

I understand the difficulties of winning New York City from the days when William F. Buckley ran for mayor. But Trump may make some serious inroads into some of the city so that the Dem margin there is at least lessened.

[Impy]

I use Dave Leip’s atlas. They have the democrats appropriately colored with commie red.

[atc23]

Now we can see why hundreds of thousands of immigrants and rapefugees are absolutely essential to democrats. They are close, oh so close to wiping out the republican party for a very long time

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

I live in “that CD in Maine,” the 2nd Congressional District.

I went to a county fair last Thursday when it opened, and the GOP and the democrats each had a booth at the fair.

I saw several people walking around with TRUMP / PENCE yard signs they picked up at the Republican booth. No one was carrying a Hillary yard sign. Another guy was wearing a Trump T-shirt.

[Reverend Wright]

I’m not surprised.

the Emerson College poll out today had Trump ahead in ME2

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_3a0ffde46e4c48bb93f9acaa484b9a1f.pdf