Posted on 09/22/2016 4:52:10 AM PDT by Kaslin
Donald Trump-mentum is steam-rolling Hillary Clinton across the country.
The third-party candidates are dragging down her already bedraggled chances. Her coughing fits, her unsure (or rather non-existent) relationship with facts, truth, and anything else pertaining to reality have harmed her already marred image.
Clinton could be heading to the Big House before she sets foot in the White House.
I must admit, I didn’t think the brash populism of the NYC real estate mogul would be enough. He kicked political correctness in the teeth, and he savaged assured the widespread silent majority (now shouting for leadership) that he would stop illegal immigration, bad trade deals, and unsure national security.
He has brushed up his public act. Still unimpeded, but more on message. He talks about conservative Supreme Court Justice (in fact he rolled out an impressive list of SCOTUS nominees). He wants to repeal the free-speech muzzling Johnson Amendment. He talks to people who don’t look like him, and goes to states that Republicans have written off as possibilities for the last 30 years.
And he’s not Hillary.
Of course he’s gaining ground!
I didn't know what to expect after the Republican National Convention. Yes, the polling during the RNC Media bump placed Pennsylvania ever so slightly in the Trump column, and FiveThirtyEight advertised the Republican nominee with a 55 percent chance of winning the Presidency.
Then came Hillary Clinton’s week in the sunlight—protected from the heat of imposing scrutiny. The fawning, marginalized media went to work suppressing Bernie dissenters, propping up the sick old lady (who was pretending to be healthy), and playing up the implausible narrative that all is well with the Democratic Party—despite all the booing and walking out. Clinton was grabbing all the attention, and the Democratic Party candidate (despite lying, cheating, and stealing) was the nominee.
For three weeks, she was going to be the next President.
One month later...
She is losing Ohio.
Colorado is not the sure thing that the Democratic Party thought it would be.
Florida, Iowa and even Georgia are jelling into distinct hues of red for Election Day. Republicans have been achieving notable successes at the state and local level, all of which is strengthening their brand, broadening their base, boosting their influence.
Iowa has more Republican than Democratic voters, and the registration gap is narrowing faster than ever. US Senator Chuck Grassley took the lead on fighting illegal immigration, including sanctuary city policies. Grassley recently praised the campaign chairmen in each of the state’s 99 counties! He is now double-digits ahead of her Democratic challenger. Iowa is a Republican state by and large.
Grassley has the grassroots, and they are going to grow into an epic victory, and pull the Hawkeye State into Trump's column, too. This trend goes double for Rob Portman of Ohio, which will help Trump big time.
The one-month swing toward the Donald is not lost on FiveThirtyEight, either.
The latest FiveThirtyEight map depicts more swing states as pink instead of baby blue. Just this week, Nevada has caught a light pink hue, too! This growing up-ticket swing will surely help Joe Heck with his steady-yet-still-close bid to replace Harry Reid in the Senate.
With North Carolina and Florida gently snuggled into the Trump column, what does Donald have? 265 Electoral votes.
If the polling in Maine remains consistent, then Trump could pick up one more electoral vote, since Maine apportions their electoral votes based on proportional representation (one for each House district, and two votes to the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote).
My current analysis on the Electoral College outcomes for Election 2016:
Trump will carry away all five electoral votes in Nebraska (Congressional apportionment a la Maine notwithstanding).
Trump wins that extra electoral vote. He might scoop three of the four votes in the Pine Tree State. After all, Ted Cruz won the primary caucuses, indicating a decisively conservative undercurrent.
Now Trump needs four more electoral votes to win.
The latest polling shows up him ahead by four points in Colorado.
He wins the Colorful state, he gets an off-color win easy. If Trump wins New Hampshire, which was tilting his way before, then he lands right on 270. The Granite State might present his best path to victory, but so could Colorado. George W. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000, but he won Colorado in 2000 and 2004.
Also, Trump is scoring higher in Colorado, since Hillary Clinton let her guard down long ago in that state. Besides, the state delegates are more energized and organized, there. Trump should invest more time, resources, and face-to-face campaign interaction in Colorado.
But now he has the time to take on bigger challenges in other "solid blue" or "sold out Democratic" states like Virginia, Michigan (where he was tied) or even Wisconsin (which also has a GOP trifecta).
This is Trump's campaign to lose, and Hillary Clinton is all but handing it to him at this point.
Ted Cruz probably doesn’t post on FR. If he does, I bet this is depressing news.
Colorado could be a good target for the old “Democrats vote on Wednesday” ploy.
George Will, Cokie Roberts, and their ilk are conspicuously silent these days.
Guess they got steamrolled somewhere along the line...or schlonged.
I wish people out there would stop talking about Georgia being some kind of question in this. It is not. My state will go comfortably for Trump. There aren’t enough people in Atlanta or Macon or even southern Georgia to overcome the rest. Hillary win here just ain’t gonna happen.
“Ted Cruz probably doesn’t post on FR. If he does, I bet this is depressing news.”
As well to any remaining #nevertrump TDS FReaks here.
are CNN et al still promoting Gary Johnson and Stein? It was so obvious that those people would hurt, not help, Hillary. Can't believe they thought those people would hurt Trump. Shows how delusional they all are.
BTW Ted Cruz thanked Donald Trump via Twitter that he keeps the internet free. As reported by Fox and Friends earlier this morning
“The latest polling shows up him ahead by four points in Colorado. “
If this is true, and Trump wins ANY state in New England, then it’s OVER for Hitlery.
Ted Cruz will endorse Trump tomorrow.
Somehow he needs to get Pa in his column. Not easy, but if he can make inroads in the Philly suburbs, he can win it. He needs to start spending some money in Philadelphia.
The democrats in Colorado are not monolithic. They are a combination of Denver/Boulder progressives, and blue collar latinos in southern Colorado. Trump can win the southern part of the state, centered around Pueblo. He needs to campaign in Pueblo, not just Colorago Springs. If he peels away the south from the demoscrats, he wins the state.
Is the author putting Ohio into the Trump column? It wasn’t clear in the article.
No need for Trump supporters to worry about Ohio. Ohio is definitely in Trump’s column.
Even Romney won Georgia by 8 points. I agree with you. Georgia is going to Trump and probably by double digits. It’s time to stop talking about it as a battleground state. Never was.
Lots of ads for both Trump and the witch out here in SW Pennsylvania. Neither is giving up on it. I’ve seen a grand total of two Hillary signs in our entire city. You can see at least 10 Trump signs just walking your dog around our neighborhood.
All this is national media fantasy fueled by Atlanta Journal Constitution heavily biased polls. They are doing their best, like the have always done, to push-poll elections in favor of the Democrat, and they lose.
You'd think the bow tie boy would be eating just a little crow by now, wouldn't you?
There are a group of rapid Cruz haters here that are bound and determined to make absolutely sure that the Cruzites or ex Cruzites don’t vote for Trump.
They’re doing a bang up job.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.