Posted on 11/02/2016 6:56:43 AM PDT by GilGil
Trump now leads Clinton 47.8% to 42.4% in this national tracking poll. And remember the methodology of this poll – it is a 7-day rolling average with over 3,004 participants. Trump – in a single day – jumped up 9/10s of a percent, while Clinton fell 9/10ths of a percent – a huge one-day swing of 1.8% - and that’s on top of yesterday’s 1.7% swing. In fact, in the last 9 days, Trump has risen 4 full points, while Clinton has lost 2.7% - a 6.7% swing. Both candidates – Trump on the topside, and Clinton on the bottom side of this chart – are now well outside of the “95% confidence interval”. According to the University of Southern California researchers running the ongoing Understanding America Study: “Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.” But in addition, the closer such a surge to election day, the more sure of that result we can be. There is now little doubt that Donald Trump will win the popular vote nationwide.
Digging down into the numbers shows where the biggest surge lies. Trump now leads in all 3 age categories. With millennials, Trump now leads by 2.6%. Among the middle aged, Trump now leads by a whopping 5.2%.
But in the 65 and over group, Trump’s lead has now widened to 9.6%.
When sorted by education, Trump enjoys a huge 18.1% lead among those with a high school education or less. A landslide is defined as a 10-point lead.
Among those with some college, Trump leads by 12.3%.
(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...
The RCP average sure has tightened up - down to 1.7% for Cankles, which I still find dubious.
The electoral count has tightened up as well. Even without the so-called toss up states, HRC is barely over the 270 threshold. She was well over 300 as recently as yesterday.
Keep voting!
I have an MS and supported Trump as soon as he announced. HE IS THE MAN.
Trump will win by a landslide.
Dornsife has it pegged at D +8.
They’re way off like all the rest.
Trump is avalancheing with the rednecks.
Where do you find that? I have looked through their methods papers and I haven’t found anything about party affiliation, apart from previous voting behaviour.
Its the follow the herd mentality in the polling industry among other things.
They expect Hillary to do better than Obama. Real life data says she isn’t.
So-called scientific polls are a complete joke.
Corruption at the highest levels.
Lock them all up!
With us Hillbilly’s too!
Oh my, like the difference between lightning and the lightning bug. Flash polls almost certainly can’t be scientific. The old fashioned scientific kind took weeks to execute, sometimes. Maybe with modern technology this could be speeded, but bottom line is that readiness to make a personal visit to every selected pollee would be needed in the end. Gallup, etc. wouldn’t want to spring for that many plane tickets.
Newt said something interesting yesterday. He said if the race is “tied” that means Clinton’s huge lead in California and NY state had to be factored into the “tied” race. That means Trump in a landslide, coming from the other 48 states. Election shouldn’t be close.
Should translate to 4-6 million pop vote.
MS, huh?
Sounds serious.
Trump-lover from the beginning.
She isnt even close to 270. That is an assumption by the drive by media.
Trump/Pence by 311+
Newt is correct.
That will crush her and may even give us PA!
PA now a dead heat.
Even though, media wont say Trump won but that it was a protest vote against Hillary and Washington and doesn’t mean Trump has a mandate and it doesn’t really count as far as his policy ideas, watch
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