[E. Pluribus Unum]

Climate is influenced by an infinite number of variables.

Climate “models” incorporate a tiny fraction of those variables.

Unless you incorporate every single variable your model will fail by a greater and greater margin as you extend your timeline.

[JPJones]

“Unless you incorporate every single variable your model will fail by a greater and greater margin as you extend your timeline.”

Which is impossible with climate because it’s a non-linear coupled chaotic system.

IOW nobody can predict the future.

[Spok]

It’s also made more complicated by politicization and rabid hysteria.

[kosciusko51]

Oh, it is worse than that. Even if they understood all of the phenomena that affect weather (which they don’t), and had a model that incorporate all of these phenomena (which none do), it still wouldn’t work.

Based on chaos theory, if one uses the same model I described above, but with slightly different starting conditions, the long-term results will be drastically different. The level of accuracy that you would need for an reliable 10-year prediction is well beyond the measuring precision currently available.

[arthurus]

The prologue to Eden in the East which is about a whole nother subject has a ddiscussion of all the orbital phases and cycles of the earth and how they affect climate.

[zeugma]

Unless you incorporate every single variable your model will fail by a greater and greater margin as you extend your timeline.

Even that won't help. Chaos theory put all thought of large-scale climate prediction and/or control firmly into the realm of science fiction. The key term is "sensitive dependence upon initial conditions". You don't hear much about the 'butterfly effect' any more, because it makes 'climatologists' look like fools.