Posted on 09/14/2018 4:06:24 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
The NY Times and Siena College are polling the "tossup" Midterm districts.
Of the polling done in September so far, 7 REPs are leading, 3 DEMs are leading and 1 tied race out of 11 districts polled (DECENT RESULTS FOR REPUBLICANS!)
5 more districts are being polled right now. Results can be viewed in Real Time. Republicans are leading in 3 of the 5.
What is shocking to me is the very low response rate. For example, in Colorado 6, there have been 489 responses out of 26,456 phone calls. That is less than 2% taking the poll. How can that be accurate?
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
BTW, sometimes the poll is halted for a time period. It will sometimes say "Continues soon" until it resumes.
crib notes for those of us who don’t want to click onto the NYSlimes??
ping
In very simple terms, it can't. A sample of 1,000 can accurately reflect the entire country, if a substantial majority of those contacted respond. A sample can even represent the entire country well when only a small minority responds - if those who respond are consistent from one election to the next. That's what we used to have.
These past three years, we have had a rabid left growing increasingly volatile, violent, and vindictive. Those willing to respond in that environment are no longer a predictable or consistent group. The bottom line for polling this year is simple. We don't know.
Q: Does the NY Times SUCK?
A: YES!
(Poll results based on one response)
They all routinely oversample democRATS to skew it to the democRATS
CNNs poll two days ago was D+10 in the results yet it was D+10 in the sample.
For House seats, district polling is the only way they can have any accuracy. Nationwide polling does not work.
Polling seems to be halted according to time zone, and limiting calls from mid afternoon to ~11pm.
I think it’s worth looking at.
These are competitive races (tossups) the polling is being done from the voters list like the campaigns do.
And, they show that the REPUBs are in surprisingly good shape compared to these national “generic” polls showing a double digit lead.
Democrats would have to win half these races to take the House, and right now, by these polls, they are not doing that.
11 Races Polled so far in September
Colorado 6 Denver Suburbs
51% Crow (D)
40% Coffman (R)
9% Undecided
Wisconsin 1 Southeastern Wisconsin
50% Steil (R)
44% Bryce (D)
6% Undecided
Texas 23 South Texas
51% Hurd (R)
43% Ortiz Jones (D)
7% Undecided
Virginia 7 Richmond suburbs
47% Brat (R)
43% Spanberger (D)
9% Undecided
West Virginia 3 Coal Country
48% Miller (R)
40% Ojeda (D)
12% Undecided
Minnesota 8 Iron Range
44% Radinovich (D)
43% Stauber (R)
13% Undecided
Minnesota 3 Minneapolis suburbs
51% Phillips (D)
42% Paulsen (R)
7% Undecided
Kentucky 6 Lexington area
47% Barr (R)
46% McGrath (D)
7% Undecided
Illinois 6 Chicago suburbs
45% Roskam (R)
44% Casten (D)
11% Undecided
Illinois 12 Downstate Illinois
44% Bost (R)
43% Kelly (D)
13% Undecided
California 48 Orange County
45% Rohrabacher (R)
45% Rouda (D)
10% Undecided
“they show that the REPUBs are in surprisingly good shape”
Agreed. There are several 1 point races, but given the “generic” numbers, results are good.
re: response rates of 1-2 percent
even the campaigns supposedly have response rates of around 10 percent, which they get from doing callback after callback.
Also, look at the variance in results for different turnout assumptions, as well as the issue polling
Things could still go south but I think this looks quite optimistic for Repubs
“variance in results for different turnout assumptions”
Some races have better Rep results with Higher turnout.
Lets hope conservatives get off their butts and vote.
Add 5 points to each poll for r’s.
thanks..
Conservatives arent responding to pollsters questions.
Given the low response rates, mid-term polls are way off.
No wonder CNN crowed the Democrats regained the House.
Oh, joy!
We may well see small Democrat gains in the House (single digit range) and a gain of a few Senate seats by Republicans.
Guess why CNNs Steve King looked so giddy? Thats why!
Democrats an stay home. Theyve already won and the fake news media is pounding the message home.
Yup.
They told people Hillary had it in the bag and theyre conveying the same assurances to the Rats this year.
The election is over. All thats left is to count the votes.
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