Posted on 10/30/2018 7:10:08 PM PDT by Ravi
See Comments if interested...
10/30/2018: D-41,813 (46.0%); R-28,849 (31.8%); I-19,619 (21.6%)
11/01/2016: D-52,511 (45.4%); R-35,119 (30.4%); I-27,614 (23.8%)
These are equivalent points in the election cycles of both years. Compared to 2016, D up 0.6%, R up 1.4% and I down 2.2%. Blum won relatively comfortably in 2016 by 7.6%. Unless I'm missing something, he's doing better than 2016. This is a seat the Dems absolutely need to flip the house I believe. Again these are BALLOT RETURNS.
FYI.
It is not clear how those numbers are to be interpreted, they look like the Demons have a substantial lead.
If you are right, you could make 5 times your money with a bet. Its 20-80 against him.
I’m too chicken.
Put another away, compared to this exact same time in 2016, D votes are down 10.5k ballots, Rs are down 6.3k ballots (net 4.2k vs 2016 at this point) and R won 2016 by 7% in 2016. Note, in Iowa, Dems tend to win the early vote and Rs on election day.
Hmm worth looking at for sure.
Those numbers make sense.
Not really. They always lead early voting in Iowa usually by even larger margins.
Yeah same here
We know that he won by 7 points in 2016 with EV numbers worse than the ones he has this year. That is fairly compelling.
I believe Blum is plagued by a mini-fraud/scandal. He did not, I guess, list a company he had formed during the campaign year on required documents. Company had to do with removing/erasing/washing/bleachbit negative violation information from ones company website.
I would think it would spell defeat, unless a democrapper. Maybe he will weather the storm?
There may have been some redistributing, not sure but thought I had heard that
There may have been some redistributing, not sure but thought I had heard that
Typical Midwestern voting profile. I will vote on election day because they might lose/alter/mutilate my absentee ballot.
Thanks Ravi. Looks really good.
Ds ALWAYS vote absentee heavily in IA, unlike Rs who vote heavy in OH and FL.
These are terrific numbers. For Rs to be UP comparatively in a district Ds need? Great news.
I know you were asking about Montana. I have their county ballot returns in a spreadsheet format. The only way to look at this is compare Red County Returns (Yellowstone, Flathead, Lewis&Clark, Cascade, Ravalli) with Blue County Returns (Missoula, Gallatin, Silver Bow, Glacier).
I used 2016 election data to determine red and blue counties.
No deep dive here but at a superficial surface glance it does appear that the “Red” counties are turning in their ballots at a faster pace than the “Blue” counties. Particularly Gallatin, Glacier and to a lesser extent Missoula are underperforming relative to their “red” counterparts in terms of turning in their ballots.
I linked the state website and you can open the spreadsheet and look for yourself (last updated last night 10/29). Click absentee counts by county.
https://sosmt.gov/elections/results/
hey does anyone know what this means when a betting site posts this when I try to bet on a certain political race—
“The Bet to win exceeds the maximum allowed for the bet type in event 2018 US House of Representatives Election - Majority Outcome.
Thanks. Good work.
No you have to look at what happened in the whole last election. At this point in 2016 the dems has 11000 more ballots in and still list on Election Day
It implies that the dems feel down. Looks to be a seat are hold
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