Posted on 11/05/2018 2:26:44 PM PST by Kaslin
This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make.
Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?
Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.
Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.
Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.
Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.
I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.
Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.
I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.
Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.
Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.
Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.
Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING.
The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected. The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.
And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?
That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.
Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.
In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?
No way Jose.
I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.
I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again
Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.
And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America.
#REDSTORM
I’m sure a lot of people believe that and are tired of it as well. There are a lot of things driving turnout. The petulance of the Marxists is a biggie.
My predictions for overall results tomorrow follows the “World Series theory”. This year, it was the RED Sox over Dodger BLUE in a hard-fought but decisive victory.
Yeah, I know both team represent deep blue areas of the country, but that’s irrelevant, IMHO.
There’s now quite good alignment between the FiveThirtyEight model and race ratings put out by @CookPolitical @InsideElections and @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball. All point toward a modal range of D’s gaining like 28-42 seats. R majority still possible. Higher D gains also possible.
If you really want to dig in, I think we and Sabato are toward the higher end of that range, Inside Elections toward the lower end, Cook in the middle, but those are pretty small differences.
Our model (and other people’s models) also tends to show a longer and fatter D tail than the experts. We’d pretty happily bet on a D gain of 43+ seats **if given 3:1 odds**, for instance, and I’m not sure that they would. But, again, those are pretty minor disagreements.
There’s also pretty strong agreement among the various probabilistic forecasters on odds of a D House majority:
@ORACLE_of_Blair: 75%
@gelliottmorris: 79%
538 Lite / Classic / Deluxe: 80% / 87% / 85%
@TheEconomist: 86%
@YouGovUS: 89%
Optimus/@DecisionDeskHQ: 95%
My point is just—nobody is really going out on a limb. Or if we are, it’s the same limb. People working independently from one another, looking at the district-by-district map in rigorous ways, are coming up with pretty similar answers to one another, much more so than in 2016.
And in the Senate, there’s even more alignment, so much so that it’s barely even worth this tweet. All the models show GOP chances at about ~85%. There are some disagreements over IN and MO, but all agree Democrats have a tough (but not impossible) map.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059508049663139840
Posted for reference, I did not read this ZZZzzzzzz.
Just one problem, Mr. Odds Maker ... President Trump is not on the ballot.
As I predicted Months ago, few pollsters were willing to call any Senate races as flip GOP. They have so many Toss Ups or Dem gain. RCP with no Toss Ups gave GOP +1 Does tie go to GOP challengers?... er, um no!
The major problem with this guy’s “analysis” is that President Trump is not on the ballot.
Go GOP RedStorm!
I have always thought the 2012 election was stolen. Rmney was way up in Ohio and virtually tied in many states.
[ Election is ALL about Trump ]
Yes it is because the Democrats are ALWAYS in “Destruction Mode”. They will do more destruction if they get in office in greater numbers. They’re already doing a lot of destruction and disruption.
Any word on Silver’s predictions?
“When you factor #Walkaway, BLEXIT, and low EV dem numbers, a resulting aggregate 3-6% reduction in dem votes could be the difference in winning or loosing in MANY races tomorrow.”
Wouldn’t it be perfect if big loses for dems tomorrow were tied to a dem turnout that voted ‘R’?
Meanwhile, our “great” governor from the great state of Ohio, is talking about running in 2020 as an independent. “we will wait and see”. my guess is that he wants to see how voter turnout goes tomorrow. Trump owns Ohio! not a chance Johnny!
So, when we lose the House - which I will guarantee we will lose, then you will blame Trump. Isn’t that your game?
From his lips to God’s ears.
Can we please cut the bullsh*t here?
Let me slam you with the reality:
The GOP must win 85 PERCENT of 40 house seats. Got that EIGHTY FIVE PERCENT!
We already lost 3 seats in PA, due to redistricting alone!
I wish you dimwits would get real, and stop blowing smoke up your own asses!
What the hell are you talking about MY GAME
Is it wise or foolish to believe the same massively biased pollsters who gave Clinton a 90% chance in 2016?
Tomorrow night we will know who the dimwit is.
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