Posted on 07/08/2019 2:50:05 PM PDT by DoodleDawg
No reply, just like before. Personal attacks, no arguments.
Knock yourself out for that big doofus, Roy.
I’m just going to ignore you.
The problem is not Kobach, the problem is Kansas. Kansas and the Republican Party were born together and both existed because of the other. The original Kansas Republicans came from New England, most of them from Massachusetts. Since the beginning, Kansas Republicans were a different breed, they came to the prairie to set it on fire with the fervor of the abolition movement. Those who came to Kansas to farm were just looking for rich soil and a plow that could turn the sod. Plantation agriculture was never going to work in Kansas, so the New England abolitionists and the arriving farmers were natural partners. They kicked out the bushwackers and became the Free State and a solid Republican State.
When the Republican Party became conservative, most of the original abolitionist families left and became Democrats, but quite a few remained Republicans and are a force to be reckoned with. They hate Trump and they hate Kobach. Many voted for the Democrats in 2016 and more of them may well vote for the Democrats in 2020, especially if Kobach wins the Republican primary for the Senate seat.
The Democrats will only win Wyandotte, Douglas, Sedwick, and perhaps Johnson County. But that may be enough to win the state.
Oh, no, don’t do that ! Instead, please dazzle us with your expertise in these races. I’m just dying to see your erudite analysis based on decades of daily research.
See, I support my arguments with those pesky real facts and figures as cited throughout this thread and others. You scream insults and pejoratives. Who do you think has more credibility to be commenting here ? Do tell.
I touched on some of that earlier. I’m curious, however, on your statement here: “When the Republican Party became conservative, most of the original abolitionist families left and became Democrats.” What time frame are you referring to here ? Terms of “Liberal” and “Conservative” by 19th century standards are not how they are today.
Through the late 60’s, both parties had left and right wings. That changed in the 70’s. The South left the Democrat Party, but then the Democrat Party began to run conservatives out of their party. The Republicans were much slower to do that, but over time liberals weren’t welcome.
When I first came to Kansas in the late eighties, the Senators were Republicans, but the House was split between Democrat and Republican and the Governor was a Democrat.
When you were talking about abolitionists becoming Democrats, that was baffling to me, since that obviously wouldn’t have been an issue after Lincoln. I wouldn’t say the South left the Dem party in the ‘70s. It really didn’t happen downballot fully until the ‘90s through to this decade, depending upon the state.
I know the Kansas Democrats were, for a time, sort of a catch-all party. You had the example of Joan Finney, who had been a somewhat Conservative Republican and pro-lifer, leave the GOP in the 1970s because the party establishment refused to back her for office (Congress). The Dems were happy to have her despite not being a moonbat and she took advantage of the bad GOP year of 1974 to win the Treasurer position and served until her election as Governor in 1990. She defeated a useless one-term “Moderate” (liberal RINO) Governor in Mike Hayden (Hayden would later take crumbs from future Dem Governors), who was to her left.
Vern Miller, the Attorney General from 1971-75, was another center-right Democrat. He had been expected to win the 1974 Governor’s race, instead losing narrowly to State Senate President Robert Bennett (considered a “Moderate” RINO).
Only on rare occasions did the Dems manage to win the legislature (only the House), in 1976 and in 1990, in the past century (not since 1912 did they previously win the House and from 1913-1917 held the State Senate).
Kansas still has an unfortunately large number of left-wingers occupying Republican seats in the legislature. Baffling, if only because these people vote and act as if their districts are in the most ultraleft radicalized areas of the country. The most left-wing member of the State Senate, John Doll, for example, hails from western Garden City. He managed to bamboozle his constituents into defeating a Conservative incumbent in the GOP primary in 2016 and proceeded to vote like he lived in Havana or Pyongyang. He left the GOP to become an “Independent” (ran with Orman as his running mate in ‘18), but the district is still stuck with him until Jan 2021.
At the federal level, which you were alluding to, it is considered simply bizarre and alien to elect a Democrat to the Senate. The only reason one was elected to a special in 1930 and for a full-term in 1932, George McGill, was due to an unfortunately weak appointed incumbent and the Depression. They came close in 1974 when then-first term Senator Dole faced left-wing abortionist Bill Roy, a sophomore Congressman. Dole had to go nuclear on that explosive social issue to save his seat.
The Dems captured 2 out of then 5 House seats in the ‘80s. One was the 4th district when a young Dan Glickman upset Garner Shriver, a center-right incumbent in 1976. The other was Jim Slattery, who succeeded in taking an open GOP seat in 1982, a bad GOP year. Since the Dems had substantial majorities, the incumbents were well-funded and could appeal to their GOP-majority constituencies that they’d be in a better position to serve them and bring home the bacon (a chronic problem nationally since after the GOP lost the House in 1954, countless GOP districts being represented by Dems where they should not have been winning, and only a small amount of Dem-leaning areas represented by Republicans). Only in 1994, did Glickman and Slattery find themselves out of a job (Slattery losing badly in his run for Governor against the RINO Graves) and the GOP able to solidify their holds on nearly every statewide office and the legislature.
That would make no sense to me, which is why I didn't say it. What I said was abolitionist families. It was the descendants of the original abolitionists who left the Republican Party and became the hard core liberal Democrats of Lawrence, Topeka and Johnson County.
Baffling still. These were religious people, so embracing anti-Christian, indeed Satanic, politics today is about as far afield as you can get. Of course, even a direct descendant of Robert E. Lee (with the same name) is part of the deranged demonic left wanting his ancestor’s statues be pulled down. Sad to see such formerly respectable families and people (on both sides of the Civil War equation) become so debauched and degraded in the generations since.
Of course, in the case of Lawrence, it didn’t help matters as it followed the lead of the university (as sadly many university towns/cities have) in becoming anti-American and ultra-left. Something absolutely drastic must be done to put a stop to this Communo-Fascist hate and brainwashing on our campii and educational facilities. Nothing has been done since the Palmer Raids, and that was a century ago. Long, long overdue.
And Kobach has the far more recent baggage of Brownback administration. Write off Johnson County if you want. Kobach can't win without taking Johnson and Sedgwick because he isn't taking Wyandotte and Douglas. He didn't last time around and I don't see how he does it in 2020.
Kobach got creamed by Dennis Moore in 2004, a presidential election year.
Kris Kobach is the Roy Moore of Kansas - the one individual who is capable of losing a senate seat to a Democrat in a solid Red state. I don't see the Kansas GOP making the same mistake.
No, the problem in this case is Kobach.
For starters, I expect Trump will win by a wider margin in 2020 (at least in Kansas). Even if Kobach trails Trump, it is highly unlikely that the Republican nominee, whomever that may be, will lose a federal Senate race. That kind of ticket-splitting just doesn’t happen much anymore. Unless Gilligan-Sebelius gets in, they Dems don’t have a first-tier candidate to run, and KGS is no great shakes.
I’m not sure why you referenced Wyandotte, as it is the most Dem county in the state. Other than when Pat Roberts was effectively unopposed in 2002 (and the 2 nothingburger third-party candidates still got a whopping combined 43%), no Republican has won it with a Dem opponent since Bob Dole got his last term in 1992. Douglas lasted voted GOP for Senator in 2004 (when Brownback drew a desultory Dem opponent).
Ultimately, he doesn’t have to carry Johnson to win.
I’ve analyzed the Roy Moore race backwards and forwards, and you can read my extensive posts on the subject. Moore was a highly unusual situation where the Republican Party itself was actively working to defeat him AFTER he was nominated. Moore only lost once in any race where he was the nominee. He had already won twice statewide for Chief Justice before, even as “controversial” as he was.
As for Dennis Moore, he beat several credible opponents beginning in 1998. I’ll point to the fact that when Kobach ran in 2004, D. Moore outspent him almost 2-to-1 ($2.3 to $1.2 million). It is almost a given in such races that you can ascertain the winner based on $$. Now, if Kobach had the cash advantage and lost, that would be a different story.
Running someone again after a loss like that would be a dumb, needless risk.
I like the guy but I have to agree with the NRSC, he’s being a jerk by running.
yep
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