Posted on 08/27/2019 9:51:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A growing share of U.S. business economists think a recession is unlikely before 2021.
In a report on Monday, 38% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2020. That's down from 42% in a survey taken in February.
Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while roughly a third of respondents foresee one hitting in 2021.
One reason fewer economists expect a recession next year—the Federal Reserve's move last month to dial back interest rates for the first time since 2008. Many forecasters and investors predict the central bank will further ease monetary policy over the rest of the year.
President Donald Trump has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy, saying on Sunday, "I don't think we're having a recession." A strong economy is key to the Republican president's 2020 reelection prospects.
Economists polled by NABE have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
I made a typo in the title. I meant to say: ‘Only 2% expect it in 2019’. I have asked the moderator to correct it. My apologies.
So 2/3 don’t and it’s almost September already.
Talk about burying the lead:
“fewer economists expect a recession next year”
That is the real change - the rest is the spin.
Making bad news out of good, to fit the Left’s narrative/support the Democratic Party’s prospects.
And the 42% was in february, long before the inverted yield curve came up. Of course, this a survey of economists, which is like a herd of cats chasing catnip.
66% of economists do NOT expect a recession by 2021!!!!!
I work in employee benefits.
Hearing lately from business owners they are either not doing any new hiring, buying equipment or adding on until they find out who wins the next election.
90%+ of my business owners are conservative and they dread a Sanders or Warren presidency.
Hope this does not cause a premature recession.
Can’t really happen in 2019 now. You need two quarters of negative growth.
The purpose of Economic Forecasting is to make Astrology appear to be Real Science.
So, 66% don’t....................
We had 15-20 years of underperforming economics... even at 3% growth per year, we have a LOT of PENT UP GROWTH before we hit the next business down turn.
Earliest a serious recession is likely to hit, without some sort of black swan trigger event, is probably 2022... more likely a few years after that. May have a small contraction here and there, but a serious recession? Hard to believe it will happen prior to 2024/5.
Just too many years of ANEMIC economics pent up to seriously slow down in just a few years.
I work for a 30bil a year company and they are expanding like mad.
“I work for a 30bil a year company and they are expanding like mad.”
Most of my clients are 2-100 employees and don’t have the cash flow or can make up for a bad business decision like the large corporations which can attract investor money. $30 billion co’s have lobbyist who have politicians in their back pocket who will make a new law change to offset company losses.
A $100k bad decision with many of clients will put them out of business.
Our company utilizes all the smaller companies.
Your point is well taken.
It would be virtually impossible to squeeze into what remains of 2019 the consecutive quarters of negative growth to record a recession for the year.
But will the Deep State try to tank the economy on Trump in 2020? Yes, quite likely, considering how well it worked to get Obama in in 2008.
An honest media without an agenda would report it that way.
One day, they’ll be right.
And now, the other headline:
Most economists do not see a decision as being imminent. A bare plurality saysbit is possible within two years.
66% of Economists Do Not Expect a Recession in 2021, and 98% Do Not Expect One in 2019
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