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Coronavirus Live Thread Feb 10, 2020
Agenda free TV ^

Posted on 02/10/2020 2:11:28 PM PST by janetjanet998

There are currently 42,729 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1013 fatalities.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2019ncov; coronavirus; cvlivethread
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To: LilFarmer

Holy crap. We’d better hope these researchers screwed up the study somehow - after all, it is data based modeling as opposed to only data. If R0 for #coronavirus #COVID-19 value is between 4.7 and 6.6, even just in “early epidemic” conditions, it will be VERY hard to keep this bug contained.


341 posted on 02/11/2020 5:03:21 PM PST by Paul R. (The Lib / Socialist goal: Total control of nothing left worth controlling.)
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To: janetjanet998

That is not exactly good news...


342 posted on 02/11/2020 5:05:38 PM PST by Paul R. (The Lib / Socialist goal: Total control of nothing left worth controlling.)
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To: Think free or die

Around here, that is an opportunity. ;-)


343 posted on 02/11/2020 5:06:46 PM PST by Paul R. (The Lib / Socialist goal: Total control of nothing left worth controlling.)
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Posted a new Thread.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3815664/posts


344 posted on 02/11/2020 5:13:54 PM PST by Vermont Lt
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To: EarlyBird

Deep State Doomsday Weapon with a Sweet and Sour flare.


345 posted on 02/11/2020 8:09:56 PM PST by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not a ppear that way.)
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To: EarlyBird; null and void

Is this possible?

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/


346 posted on 02/11/2020 8:19:07 PM PST by GOPJ ( http://www.tinyurl.com/cvirusmap https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/usmap.htm)
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To: Levy78

Indian slum residents don’t travel to China.


347 posted on 02/11/2020 8:23:13 PM PST by Triple (Socialism denies people the right to the fruits of their labor, and is as abhorrent as slavery)
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To: sockmonkey

Should have never been sent back in the first place.
‘The needs of the many, out weigh the needs of the few.’


348 posted on 02/11/2020 10:14:42 PM PST by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not a ppear that way.)
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To: Jane Long

we had terrific almost-spring weather last week. This weekend we joined the rest of the nation - high winds, and a cold rain. I actually enjoyed tho, since most of the weather here is hot, sun, hotter, sunnier, really hot, really sunny. :)


349 posted on 02/12/2020 12:27:10 AM PST by blueplum ( ("...this moment is your moment: it belongs to you... " President Donald J. Trump, Jan 20, 2017))
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To: 444Flyer

I’ve seen what it takes to get a nucleic acid detection test going. It would take time to get the infrastructure in place to consistently run tests according to accepted standards. Honestly, getting such a lab up and running in two weeks sounds like a miracle. You need qualified equipment (has to be qualified “in place”), validated protocols (that is, you have to show reproducibility in results using the same samples, with different equipment and different operators over different days), and the personnel have to be trained. The chemistry of the test may be variable depending on your reagent suppliers.

Though the general public is used to hearing about these kinds of tests, it is NOT trivial to set them up!


350 posted on 02/12/2020 6:00:31 AM PST by microgeek42
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To: microgeek42

It sounds incredibly complex!


351 posted on 02/12/2020 6:41:02 AM PST by 444Flyer (John 3 Revelation 20 Joshua 24:15 Pick a side..)
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To: Black Agnes

The developments on the Diamond Princess may give us a really good look (at the sacrifice of the people on this ship, who seem to be getting infected FROM being on this ship at this point). The terrifying stat is that 4 of the original group (presumably, as something like 120 more were just identified as positive in the last few days) - are in the ICU. That is a terrible, terrible stat. So the 20% => severe cases may end up fleshing out in this group, just like in Wuhan. That would bode really poorly for the US health care system.

No American news outlet I’ve seen has even reported about the people in the ICU. Don’t they read the Japan Times??

It’s a really important stat, why it’s buried is mind boggling.


352 posted on 02/12/2020 10:44:34 AM PST by nerdgirl
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To: nerdgirl

That’s disturbing.

I wonder how many Americans, on that cruise, will end up in the ICU.


353 posted on 02/12/2020 11:14:30 AM PST by Black Agnes
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To: ETCM

Take good care! You probably already heard about the 2nd case out of the base.


354 posted on 02/12/2020 5:21:23 PM PST by 444Flyer (John 3 Revelation 20 Joshua 24:15 Pick a side..)
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To: polymuser

Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rates are not constant; they can vary between populations and over time, depending on the interplay between the causative agent of disease, the host, and the environment as well as available treatments and quality of patient care.


So, um... yes.

355 posted on 02/13/2020 2:44:45 PM PST by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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To: scouter

I read dang goodly!

“...case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among ALL individuals DIAGNOSED with the disease over a certain period of time.”

Nowhere are the “non-recovered” eliminated, as you do. You can make your own name for your own math, that’s fine, be creative, but your formula is not the CFR formula


356 posted on 02/14/2020 6:36:29 AM PST by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: scouter

Well, maybe a term other than Case Fatality Rate (which formally has an understood meaning of cases/deaths) could be used?

Maybe Resolved Fatality Rate? That reflects a denominator using resolved cases — they either died or recovered.

With CFR, TIME is the factor that makes it a smaller percentage, the time between infection and resolution. CFR would equal RFR only after the disease has run its course and all cases are resolved — they died or survived.

My 2 cents.


357 posted on 02/14/2020 6:42:13 AM PST by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: polymuser
I hear what you're saying, but I did specifically say CFR Over the Course of the Disease, which implicitly means eliminating those who still have the disease, and specifies the time frame for the calculation. But your point is well taken.
358 posted on 02/14/2020 7:18:26 AM PST by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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To: scouter

OK.

For your term “Over the Course of the Disease”, yes.

For the definition’s term “Over a certain period of time”, no.

Also, since the disease has not yet run it’s course, your method cannot yet be applied.


359 posted on 02/14/2020 7:45:51 AM PST by polymuser (It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and so few by deceit. Noel Coward)
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To: Black Agnes
Good question. They've kept this number pretty hush hush, almost NO articles even mention it, just the original Japan Times one that mentioned ventillators, and none of the follow ups. Now there are 9 listed as serious, critical for Japan here Worldometers.info - wonder if the additional 5 are cruisers or not?
360 posted on 02/14/2020 5:21:06 PM PST by nerdgirl
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