Posted on 02/10/2020 2:11:28 PM PST by janetjanet998
Holy crap. We’d better hope these researchers screwed up the study somehow - after all, it is data based modeling as opposed to only data. If R0 for #coronavirus #COVID-19 value is between 4.7 and 6.6, even just in “early epidemic” conditions, it will be VERY hard to keep this bug contained.
That is not exactly good news...
Around here, that is an opportunity. ;-)
Deep State Doomsday Weapon with a Sweet and Sour flare.
Is this possible?
https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/
Indian slum residents don’t travel to China.
Should have never been sent back in the first place.
‘The needs of the many, out weigh the needs of the few.’
we had terrific almost-spring weather last week. This weekend we joined the rest of the nation - high winds, and a cold rain. I actually enjoyed tho, since most of the weather here is hot, sun, hotter, sunnier, really hot, really sunny. :)
I’ve seen what it takes to get a nucleic acid detection test going. It would take time to get the infrastructure in place to consistently run tests according to accepted standards. Honestly, getting such a lab up and running in two weeks sounds like a miracle. You need qualified equipment (has to be qualified “in place”), validated protocols (that is, you have to show reproducibility in results using the same samples, with different equipment and different operators over different days), and the personnel have to be trained. The chemistry of the test may be variable depending on your reagent suppliers.
Though the general public is used to hearing about these kinds of tests, it is NOT trivial to set them up!
It sounds incredibly complex!
The developments on the Diamond Princess may give us a really good look (at the sacrifice of the people on this ship, who seem to be getting infected FROM being on this ship at this point). The terrifying stat is that 4 of the original group (presumably, as something like 120 more were just identified as positive in the last few days) - are in the ICU. That is a terrible, terrible stat. So the 20% => severe cases may end up fleshing out in this group, just like in Wuhan. That would bode really poorly for the US health care system.
No American news outlet I’ve seen has even reported about the people in the ICU. Don’t they read the Japan Times??
It’s a really important stat, why it’s buried is mind boggling.
That’s disturbing.
I wonder how many Americans, on that cruise, will end up in the ICU.
Take good care! You probably already heard about the 2nd case out of the base.
Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.
Case fatality rates are not constant; they can vary between populations and over time, depending on the interplay between the causative agent of disease, the host, and the environment as well as available treatments and quality of patient care.
So, um... yes.
I read dang goodly!
“...case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among ALL individuals DIAGNOSED with the disease over a certain period of time.”
Nowhere are the “non-recovered” eliminated, as you do. You can make your own name for your own math, that’s fine, be creative, but your formula is not the CFR formula
Well, maybe a term other than Case Fatality Rate (which formally has an understood meaning of cases/deaths) could be used?
Maybe Resolved Fatality Rate? That reflects a denominator using resolved cases — they either died or recovered.
With CFR, TIME is the factor that makes it a smaller percentage, the time between infection and resolution. CFR would equal RFR only after the disease has run its course and all cases are resolved — they died or survived.
My 2 cents.
OK.
For your term “Over the Course of the Disease”, yes.
For the definition’s term “Over a certain period of time”, no.
Also, since the disease has not yet run it’s course, your method cannot yet be applied.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.