Posted on 02/29/2020 10:33:56 AM PST by blam
One week ago, ahead of today’s Chinese data release which would for the first time capture the devastation from the coronavirus pandemic, we wrote that “to those who have been following our series of high-frequency, daily indicators of China’s economy, it will probably not come as a surprise that the world’s second biggest economy has ground to a halt, its GDP set to post the first negative print in modern history. To everyone else who is just now catching up, we have some news: it’s going to be bad.”
Specifically, we said that ahead of official Chinese economic data which will soon start capturing the period when the coronavirus crippled the country’s economy, Nomura’s Chief China economist Ting Lu pointed out that China’s Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI), which gauges momentum in the country’s high-tech industries and is closely correlated with official manufacturing PMI, slumped to 29.9 in February (from 50.1 in January!), its lowest-print on record, which was a “pure reflection of the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.”
What would this mean for the closely followed China manufacturing PMI? As Nomura added, "even adjusting for seasonality and expected progress in business resumption in the coming week, we estimate the official manufacturing PMI could drop to a range of 30-40 in Feb."
In retrospect, it turns out that Nomura's dire forecast was optimistic, because moments ago China's National Statistics Bureau reported the latest, February PMIs and they were absolutely catastrophic:
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at sgtreport.com ...
blam, thanks for posting.
Perhaps that will motivate us to start manufacturing things in the USA again, especially critical components.
I hope PDJT can stay ahead of it. If anyone can, he can IMO
But, but, the dems were making so much money from China.
Rapid decoupling from China is a good thing!
If we could deal with WW2 and the manufacturing adjustments we should be able to deal with this. The evil, stupid globalists just have to get out of the way...which is a tall order.
Just a flu, nothing to see here...Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
Perhaps that will motivate us to start manufacturing things in the USA again, especially critical components.
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Like drugs we need & surgical masks/supplies ....for starters. Trump is SO right to untangle us from China - it’s a matter of National Security.
This episode of War Room: Pandemic illustrates the point & is worth listening to .... if you don’t have time for the whole thing, the guy you really want to hear comes in about 21:45 .... more than eye-opening:
https://pandemic.warroom.org/ep-15-practical-preparedness/
Steve Bannon, Jack Maxey, and Dr. Steven Hatfill are joined by Rosemary Gibson to discuss medicine supply chains and preventative medical gear preparedness as a matter of national importance as the coronavirus continues to spread.
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The first part has Rosemary Gibson, who wrote the book “China Rx” ....
“Several decades ago, penicillin, vitamin C, and many other prescription and over-the-counter products were manufactured in the United States. But with the rise of globalization, antibiotics, antidepressants, birth control pills, blood pressure medicines, cancer drugs, among many others are made in China and sold in the United States.”
Oh-Oh...this isn’t good.
“I hope PDJT can stay ahead of it. If anyone can, he can IMO.”
President Trump just visited India, and they will be an excellent ally and a top choice to replace the ChiComs.
Apparently, he is opening the doors to Viet Nam to replace the Philippines to be our future military and economic base in that area of Asia.
Not entirely surprising, given the fact that more than half the workforce was furloughed for the better part of a month. I’m beginning to think that the Chinese leadership’s panic was possibly triggered by the effects of the swine flu on swine herds. Maybe they thought this coronavirus would have a similar impact on humans.
What they probably missed was that pigs bred for meat are monocultures - they are (incestuously) bred for a high meat to bone ratio, feed to meat ratio, etc, etc. Disease resistance for a good number of plants and animals bred for human consumption is very low. Whereas humans aren’t monocultures. It’s generally natural selection that decides what humans get to pass on their genes. And a good chunk of that natural selection consists of resistance to diseases that Mother Nature throws up randomly.
Rapid decoupling from China is a good thing!
Like having a rotten/decaying painful tooth removed quickly, instead of applying useless topical treatments.
Speeding up the decoupling of the US from China will definitely be the silver lining.
You’ve got that right.
Imagine if that other person had been president right now.
I wouldn’t be stocking up to ride out a month or 6 weeks of quarantine. I’d be stocking up to ride out an ELE.
I have never understood why ANY nation would not seek to be self-sufficient. Some nations like South Korea and Taiwan, self-sufficiency is an express national goal.
For some it is just not possible. But it should be easy to achieve for a nation like ours, with large amounts of resources, power and labor.
But we decided to become slaves of China. And now we have become a nation full of “homeless,” druggies, crazies, sexual perverts and illegal aliens.
That’s what I was thinking - furloughed workers.
Exactly. However, between all the government regulations, bureaucracy,taxes, unions and douchebaggery in general, it’s no wonder so many countries have off shored. We need to drastically overhaul this mess.
The concern here is not so much that China has been significantly impacted but that there will be “knock on” effects that ripple into the US economy. The shipping containers coming into our ports are only one third full indicating that a lot of products and manufacturing goods that US companies need to make and sell their own products are delayed.
If they sell out of their inventory quickly it could mean they will not have anything to sell this summer and their revenues will slump. If this happens they would have to lay off people which then cuts into the consumer confidence levels and people pull back on spending. This becomes a self fulfilling spiral that can lead to a recession.
If US consumers panic because they think there will be shortages it could suck up the inventory very quickly just like people do with gasoline when they think the supply is at risk because of natural disasters.
The lesson from this is exactly what President Trump was trying to do with the China Trade Deal. The underlying message to US manufacturers is that we can’t risk being so dependent on China to feed our economic pipeline. We fixed this problem with oil supplies by expanding our fracking so that now disruptions to the Middle East supply no longer panic our financial markets and risk armed conflict.
We need to bring back our own manufacturing to this country so that we limit our vulnerability to foreign disruptions for whatever reason. If China gets back on line quickly none of this will necessarily happen but our markets are predicting they won’t make it at this point.
My veterinarian said this morning the test animals from the Wuhan lab were being sold at the animal market. Makes sense.
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