Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare (UK)

Regardless of what kind of healthcare system (or any other system) you have big issue is capacity. There is a certain capacity to treat people of a certain problem, in this case COVID-19. It’s fatality rate being anything from 10 to 50 times the flu is in of itself not alarming.

The alarming aspects are that it is more transmissible than the flu (in both ease of catching it and spreading it). It’s a numbers game.

For example: every year on average in Australia approximately 3.5 million Australians (13.5% of the population) get the flu bad enough to require sick leave/treatment and of those about 3,500 die of it. The leading cause of death in Australia is heart disease with about 18,000 per year.

With COVID-19, very conservative numbers on hospitalisation in ICU/mortality rate of 10% and 1% respectively and a infection number the same as flu (3.5 million) gives you 350,000 requiring ICU and 35,000 dead.

For the record, Australia lost about 60,000 over 4 years in WW1 and 27,000 over 6 years in WW2. COVID-19 deaths would occur over a 6-9 month period. Even spreading it out evenly over a 12 month period (which it won’t be) that’s over 29,000 new ICU patients per month.

That number would strain the US health system just using Australia’s numbers. Multiply it by 12 to account for population differences.

Run the numbers. It isn’t the zombie apocalypse, but it’s not a nothing burger.

It can’t. And you better believe plenty of people are overjoyed at the prospect.

Anyone happy about tanking the economy is an idiot.

This pandemic has all the ingredients for a global economic depression.

A drastic reduction in the demand for goods and services, a drastic reduction in world trade, a drastic reduction in world travel.

If this economic slowdown extends for 6 months or more the worldwide economic output could be cut by maybe 20%.

The hospitality industry is for all intents and purposes shutdown. Tourist destinations are ghost towns.

The local mall just this year finished a huge entertainment complex with a brand-new bowling alley, laser tag and gigantic electronic game hall. That place was just ordered to be closed today. It might as well declare bankruptcy tomorrow.

Restaurants are not going to make it on carryout alone. Their wait staff is not going to make rent and car payments on unemployment alone.

I fully expect that domestic violence and suicide rates are going to skyrocket if this shutdown goes on more than a month.

My parents lived through the Great Depression and I heard their stories. I don’t want to live those stories myself.

I agree with you. In addition,

Addiction rates will go up.
Mental health services will be overwhelmed.
Euthanasia for the ill elderly will be seriously proposed for all states and as defacto medical policy.
Tax relief such as homestead exemption will be eliminated or scaled way back.
Stricter controls on currency.
A sudden need to grow the Federal government to meet future crisis.

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