Climate change with a cough.
Posted on 03/16/2020 4:05:45 PM PDT by winoneforthegipper
Summary The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission. Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option
(Excerpt) Read more at imperial.ac.uk ...
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Pages 6 and 7 of the report are a hoot.
So is comparing the US healthcare system with the NHS.
Climate change with a cough.
No
“1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic”
The Spanish Flu. For God’s sake, enough with the political correctness. It was the Spanish Flu Epidemic. Period.
I don’t think a modern economy can survive 18 months of the kind of ‘Social Distancing’ that is being forced upon us today.
It can’t. And you better believe plenty of people are overjoyed at the prospect.
we need herd immunity....I realize it will make people like me sick, maybe die, but I can’t in good conscience have this world deteriorate anymore for my children or grandchildren...
And there’s no shark in the bay, everyone go swimming. /s
What this paper truly addresses is their apology to their country.
See post #11
Yeah. Hopefully a mitigation remedy and a vaccine are quickly realized.
There are always sharks in the bay genius.
Yes we need herd immunity. I certainly don’t want to see you become ill, or heaven forbid, die. Keeping those who would relish a complete collapse of the US economy from ever getting near the White House and Congress will do a lot to make the world a better place for your children and grandchildren.
“The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound...”
This needs to be corrected... Let’s see.
The ginned-up, media driven, hysterical global impact of COVID-19 has been ridiculous...
That’s better.
The treat is very real.
With mitigation/social distancing: Around 10-20,000 deaths (same as flu or fewer), but the disease will persist until the end of the year 2020.
The take away is the extreme isolation.
*Climate change with a cough*.
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