bttt
If it turns out that very few (or no) lupus patients have COVID, then HCQ is protective.
The question becomes then, “At how low a dose?” Instead of 200 mg or 400 mg, can we drink 60 mg of quinine in 3 glasses of tonic water and get some protection?
A second question is, “Are they immune, or do they catch the virus, but slow it down so much that they build antibodies?”
Then a third question would be, “What low dose level of quinine/HCQ is protective, and is it protective in the sense that it provides immunity only while taken, or does it allow one to build resistance by getting a mild, asympotmatic case with low viral load?”
Is HCQ used to fight malaria in Africa? If so, could that be a reason why the numbers out of Africa are so low?
i watched this on Dr Oz the other day- the first time i ever watched his show. The doctor from NY Sinai who treats the lupus patients said something very interesting when asked about the potential shortage of hydroxy- he said the drug stays active in you 2-3 months after you’ve taken it, hence he was not concerned about a shortage for his lupus patients...
Good.
Now maybe the NPCs will wake up.
The headline is bogus. Hydroxychloroquine’s more serious side effect is extending the QT interval. If you are lucky (/s) enough to have a long QT to start, prolonging it further is dangerous, possibly fatal.
Dr Duggirala (Silicon Valley MD @csentropy) tweeted:
“For the life of me, I can’t understand the absolute ignorance in the press about Plaquenil. That applies to doctors as well. I cannot emphasize enough the safety of Plaquenil. We rheumatologists literally don’t think twice about prescribing it. Over 90% of patients with lupus are on it.” — A brilliant rheumatologist friend.
Plaquenil is tradename of HCQ.
Interesting statements.
If Dr. Oz says it, my default position would be it’s not true, but anything is possible.
I was given hyrdoxychloroquine by the Army before a planned 3 week deployment to Afghanistan as a preventive measure to prevent me getting Malaria. It was standard procedure for all troops going to Afghanistan and Iraq. It was given under the name Mefloquine. The trip ended up being canceled two weeks before our departure after the bombing of the US Embassy in Kabul in 2007 and it was decided that a pair of Army historians to visit their subordinate Military History Detachments was not a priority.
MUST WATCH VIDEO!
Dr. Zelenko update! Inspiring! Watch the WHOLE THING! Full of nuggets spread throughout. Also Dr. Karladine Graves with additional info and perspective.
There’s not many people here who get into mathematics very much, but for the few who do, I want to run this by you to see if you disagree:
The article states that some outfit called Share Care has already looked at 9 million health records and identified 14,000 lupus patients on hydroxychloroquine. They say that’s a “tiny biopsy” of America. I want to take issue with “tiny”; it could be “huge.” The numbers:
We have over 450,000 cases in a country of about 325 million people. 450,000/325,000,000 = .001385, or about .14% of us have been confirmed cases. That means that 99.86% have not been so identified, or .9986 of the population.
That means that if you pick one person at random, there is a .9986 out of 1.0000 chance he isn’t a confirmed case, i.e., a 99.86% probability. Now, if you pick a second person out of the population, the odds that both are non-cases is .9986x.9986, or .9972 (a 99.72% chance). Picking three healthy people, the odds are .9986x.9986x.9986=.9958 (99.58%) That calculation is just .9986 cubed or to the 3rd power. Here are some more numbers, really the odds of not getting a person with a confirmed case after n tries:
1 person — .9986
2 people — .9972
3 people — .9958
4 — .9944
5 — .9930 (still over a 99% chance of all healthy. Step it up some now
10 people — .9861 (If you have a” y to the x” key on your calculator, use it with x=10. So .9986 y to the 10 = .9861
20 people — .9724 (Still more than a 97% chance of no cases, but it’s getting interesting, right?)
50 people — .9323
100 people — .8693 (Hmm, 13% chance of a confirmed case)
200 people — .7556
500 people — .4963 (Okay, slightly better than 50% of finding one)
1,000 people — .2464
2,000 people — .0607 (Going down pretty fast now, right?)
4,000 people — .0037 (Whoa!, less than half a percent chance of no cases with 10,000 picks to go?)
5,000 people — .0009 (That’s just under 1/10 of one percent)
7,000 people — .000055 (under 1/100 of one percent; put another way a 99.9945% chance of having a confirmed case by now.
14,000 people — .000000003 chance of no cases (not going to happen, in other words)
Conclusions:
1. The numbers in the article are reported wrong (high probability)
2. The people gathering the numbers have been missing cases (also probable)
3. However, if true as reported, it is a near certainty that long-term hydroxychloroquine use protects against Covid-19.
4. Or my math approach to the probabilities is wrong (decent chance, so please explain if you think so)