Posted on 04/14/2020 7:59:14 AM PDT by Kaslin
If the American public stays home en masse even after public officials lift stay-at-home orders, the ‘re-opened’ economy will look nearly as morose as the current one.
If we reopen it, will they come? That paraphrase of the signature line from “Field of Dreams” illustrates a dilemma facing the Trump administration, along with state and local leaders, as they contemplate when and how to reopen elements of the economy shut down by the coronavirus pandemic.
Just because the Trump administration gives word that individuals and businesses can reopen doesn’t mean that most, or even any, of them will do so.
A dozen years ago, former Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) caused a minor uproar during the middle of the 2008 presidential campaign when he characterized the nation as in a “mental recession.” His remarks drew outrage, but they accurately describe one of the two predicaments the American economy faces: Both the coronavirus and the fear caused by the virus.
Even as the nation’s leaders work to resolve the first problem, they also must work diligently to resolve the second. When restarting economic activity, all Americans have a voice: They can spend, or not spend, money as they please. If the American public stays home en masse even after public officials lift stay-at-home orders, the “re-opened” economy will look nearly as morose as the current one.
Polling shows a surprising level of support for most of the actions taken to curb the virus, even at the expense of the nation’s economy. A Fox News poll taken last week showed that 80 percent of Americans support “a national stay-at-home order for everyone except essential workers.” That comes despite the fact that 50 percent of Americans said they, or someone in their household, had lost a job or had hours reduced because of the virus and related shutdowns.
Why do an overwhelming majority of Americans support such a drastic shutdown of the nation’s economy? The polling shows that, as of April 4-7, most Americans fear the virus:
The American people do worry about the virus’ potential to cause a recession (91 percent are very or somewhat concerned), and inflict economic hardship on their families (79 percent very or somewhat concerned). But the survey shows that, at least as of last week, they fear the virus more than they fear the economic consequences of the virus. Perhaps for this reason, a 47 percent plurality believe President Trump has not taken the virus seriously enough, whereas only 4 percent believe he has overreacted to the pandemic.
Some might believe the American people have in fact overreacted to the coronavirus. They of course have their right to hold those beliefs. But trivializing people’s fears—as opposed to reasoning with them in a way that puts them at ease—won’t encourage people to begin resuming their normal lives, and will likely keep the economy stuck in neutral (or sliding further backwards).
Despite the lack of focus on the topic to date, the messaging component of reopening the economy seems critically important to its success—as important as getting the timing right of the reopening. The administration needs to approach the American people where they are—anxious about the virus’ spread—and offer clear explanations not just for what they are doing, but why:
This advice applies not just to President Trump, but to governors and other policy makers as well. For instance, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases said Friday that he envisioned a “real degree of normality” by around the time of this fall’s elections. His statement seemed somewhat surprising, given prior comments by Fauci and others about a possible “second wave” of coronavirus infections hitting this fall.
In an evolving response to a pandemic, facts and circumstances can change rapidly, as scientists learn more about the virus, and humans’ responses to it. But whenever scientists change their models, or political leaders alter their guidance and recommendations, both must explain to the public why they have done so. Only transparent data, communications, and explanations can ensure the public buy-in necessary to bring the economy back to life at the appropriate time.
With the current pandemic, policymakers need to work the problem—both of them. They must break down the component parts associated with reopening our economic and civic institutions: the conditions that must be met prior to a reopening, the sequencing behind such an effort, and so forth.
But they also must explain openly, clearly, and repeatedly to the American people how and why they are doing so. Doing the former without the latter could result in more confusion, uncertainty, and continued economic stagnation.
The fact that Jim Lovell, the commander of the fateful Apollo 13 mission, survived to write about that experience 50 years on this past weekend speaks to the power of American ingenuity in solving problems, overcoming obstacles, and saving lives. Here’s hoping we see a reprise of that ingenuity for the coronavirus.
Thanks China
More precisely, the American government.
I think the economy recovers just fine, but movies and restaurants will take awhile. Sports attendance has been off past few years and will not bounce back to pre-virus levels and the ticket prices are way too high.
My parents avoid crowds because of the Polio scare of the 1930s. We will have a lot more germ-a-phobes now, but everyone’s hygiene will improve and that is a good thing.
One of three things needs to happen:
1. A vaccine
2. A cure
3. Deaths stop
Americans’ fears are being fueled by the “stay home” orders. The only way to start combating the fear is to start reversing the orders.
When we reach the time of an “all clear” being given out, by Trump and/or state governors, what will happen?
Will many people be afraid to go out to restaurants, shopping malls, concerts, sports events, or any other public places where people are crowded together???
Will people be gun shy about going to ball games with 40,000 people in a stadium?
Will people be gun shy to go to restaurants and bars where people are tightly packed in on busy nights?
Will people not want to go to the movies, same reasoning as other places ?
Will these sectors of the economy suffer anyway, because so many of their former customers lost their jobs because of the economic slowdown, and people put off non essential spending, even if they aren’t spooked about crowded places, will they still not go back to former routines of going places and spending money?
1. A vaccine, like the flu
2. A cure, like cancer
3. Deaths stop, like living
Did anyone read this FR article last night? Death rate is .1 very similar to common flu.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/13/study-coronavirus-fatality-rate-lower-than-expected-close-to-flus-0-1/
Good luck with this! A fair number of American “men” (and I use that term loosely) have turned into pu$$ies!
Generally, blue state liberals will remain hidden under beds.
Red states will race forward.
Watch what happens in SoDakota. Gov. Noem is going heavy with HCQ in her little hotspot at the meat packing plant and will provide a valuable lesson.
For all intents and purposes we have a cure. 1/2 of all US deaths occur in nursing homes, fyi
Please credit Percy Shelley here.
The article is right. The economy was shutting down on it's own due to fears. The lock downs just got us all on the same page.
The economy won't recover until people feel safe. So don[t try to reopen until the cases are down. It will fail, and it will cases increasing, further extending the necessary lock downs.
The liberal MSM will milk the Wuhan Cooties for all it’s worth, will wring that rag dry before moving on to more Trump impeachment nonsense.
A quick in office swab, like the flu swab is now.
Medication prescribed BEFORE you get sick enough to need hospitalization.
Medication prescribed so that even people who don’t get sick enough to need a hospital aren’t out of commission for 3 weeks or longer as happened to someone we know. Slept for 2 weeks, in excruciating pain for another week and then 2 MORE weeks of quarantine waiting for a negative test. That’s FIVE WEEKS home from work. Need a med that will shorten that duration drastically.
Yes, of course, Percy Bysshe Shelley wrote the un-edited version of that. I knew I forgot something...
Democrats have nothing to offer but fear (envy, murder of innocents, perversions....).
It went thru months ago...
We need to open everything no restrictions of an kind...
Well maybe restrictions in senior citizens living quarters and nursing homes
Your in charge or what you do not some IYI government official..
Please affirm that the poem relates to the present day situation as the Democrats plan begins to unfold. Thanks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.