Posted on 04/14/2020 7:59:14 AM PDT by Kaslin
If the American public stays home en masse even after public officials lift stay-at-home orders, the ‘re-opened’ economy will look nearly as morose as the current one.
If we reopen it, will they come? That paraphrase of the signature line from “Field of Dreams” illustrates a dilemma facing the Trump administration, along with state and local leaders, as they contemplate when and how to reopen elements of the economy shut down by the coronavirus pandemic.
Just because the Trump administration gives word that individuals and businesses can reopen doesn’t mean that most, or even any, of them will do so.
A dozen years ago, former Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) caused a minor uproar during the middle of the 2008 presidential campaign when he characterized the nation as in a “mental recession.” His remarks drew outrage, but they accurately describe one of the two predicaments the American economy faces: Both the coronavirus and the fear caused by the virus.
Even as the nation’s leaders work to resolve the first problem, they also must work diligently to resolve the second. When restarting economic activity, all Americans have a voice: They can spend, or not spend, money as they please. If the American public stays home en masse even after public officials lift stay-at-home orders, the “re-opened” economy will look nearly as morose as the current one.
Polling shows a surprising level of support for most of the actions taken to curb the virus, even at the expense of the nation’s economy. A Fox News poll taken last week showed that 80 percent of Americans support “a national stay-at-home order for everyone except essential workers.” That comes despite the fact that 50 percent of Americans said they, or someone in their household, had lost a job or had hours reduced because of the virus and related shutdowns.
Why do an overwhelming majority of Americans support such a drastic shutdown of the nation’s economy? The polling shows that, as of April 4-7, most Americans fear the virus:
The American people do worry about the virus’ potential to cause a recession (91 percent are very or somewhat concerned), and inflict economic hardship on their families (79 percent very or somewhat concerned). But the survey shows that, at least as of last week, they fear the virus more than they fear the economic consequences of the virus. Perhaps for this reason, a 47 percent plurality believe President Trump has not taken the virus seriously enough, whereas only 4 percent believe he has overreacted to the pandemic.
Some might believe the American people have in fact overreacted to the coronavirus. They of course have their right to hold those beliefs. But trivializing people’s fears—as opposed to reasoning with them in a way that puts them at ease—won’t encourage people to begin resuming their normal lives, and will likely keep the economy stuck in neutral (or sliding further backwards).
Despite the lack of focus on the topic to date, the messaging component of reopening the economy seems critically important to its success—as important as getting the timing right of the reopening. The administration needs to approach the American people where they are—anxious about the virus’ spread—and offer clear explanations not just for what they are doing, but why:
This advice applies not just to President Trump, but to governors and other policy makers as well. For instance, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases said Friday that he envisioned a “real degree of normality” by around the time of this fall’s elections. His statement seemed somewhat surprising, given prior comments by Fauci and others about a possible “second wave” of coronavirus infections hitting this fall.
In an evolving response to a pandemic, facts and circumstances can change rapidly, as scientists learn more about the virus, and humans’ responses to it. But whenever scientists change their models, or political leaders alter their guidance and recommendations, both must explain to the public why they have done so. Only transparent data, communications, and explanations can ensure the public buy-in necessary to bring the economy back to life at the appropriate time.
With the current pandemic, policymakers need to work the problem—both of them. They must break down the component parts associated with reopening our economic and civic institutions: the conditions that must be met prior to a reopening, the sequencing behind such an effort, and so forth.
But they also must explain openly, clearly, and repeatedly to the American people how and why they are doing so. Doing the former without the latter could result in more confusion, uncertainty, and continued economic stagnation.
The fact that Jim Lovell, the commander of the fateful Apollo 13 mission, survived to write about that experience 50 years on this past weekend speaks to the power of American ingenuity in solving problems, overcoming obstacles, and saving lives. Here’s hoping we see a reprise of that ingenuity for the coronavirus.
“Will people be gun shy about going to ball games with 40,000 people in a stadium?”
If people don’t want to come out to the ball park, nobody’s gonna stop ‘em.
Um, cases are coming down; curves are flattening! We also have effective meds to fight this. Unfortunately, as long as we have limp wristed “guys” like you, the fear will never go away!
BTW, why don’t you go and spout your drivel to Americans who’ve lost their businesses and jobs! I’ll wager you’ve lost nothing but sleep due to your nonstop handwringing.
You are an embarrassment to men everywhere! I pity your girlfriend or wife!
I forsee years of people out in public bitching and fighting with each other because someone gets too close or coughs wrong or No mask etc.
And many old people will just not go out as much out of fear, leading to a decline in health.
Pitiful.
Any vaccine appearing on the near horizon will be a half-assed face saving move by the public health bureaucrats. This will end when people start to realize that the average American has a 0.0017% chance of dying from this.
.....
Yep! And I’m still more concerned about catching influenza!
One of three things needs to happen:
1. A vaccine
2. A cure
3. Deaths stop
____
I think its more granular than that...
1. ease of testing - i.e. @ Walgreen’s/CVS
2. ease of getting meds - i.e. teledoc
3. perhaps comfortably with masks for a time til there is a vaccine.
Oh, after a month of a taste of totalitarian control the fears of the Chinese Flu virus are fading, and fading quickly as more and more data come in. The “tsunami” of recovery is still a ways out to sea (just a typical wave over deep ocean), but it is slowly accelerating toward the shore and will build in magnitude quickly should there be further delays and particularly if there is significant resistance to starting and implementing America’s social and economic recovery. (Please indulge my love of analogy — particularly visual analogies — with the tsunami reference). Although weakened by events over the past month my optimism has returned and is strong! Please join in ... it’s quite refreshing!
We don’t know if there will ever be a vaccine.
Tony Fauci has been seeking an AIDS vaccine for over thirty years without success. It’s not the sort of thing you can just magically pull out of your posterior.
18 months would be a record shattering time, and frankly I’d have concerns that it was really half-assed and rushed to market to save face.
Yes, it does. Very much so.
No kidding.
I pointed out to my grandson yesterday at Wal-Mart regarding the able bodied men wearing masks. He agreed. And yes,I used that same word!
There is constant ongoing development of various flu vaccines. The problem seems to be determining which flu variant to target.
For the record, Rush doesn’t know that a flu shot is actually a vaccine.
Whoever he may be.
Bill Gates appreciates your support of his vaccine push.
Vaccine: NEVER FOR ME
No kidding.
I pointed out to my grandson yesterday at Wal-Mart regarding the able bodied men wearing masks. He agreed. And yes,I used that same word!
....
Yeah, it’s a pathetic sight to behold! If I acted like this, my wife would slap the sh*t out of me, then promptly divorce my butt!
Glad your Grandson has men in his life showing him how a real man conducts himself!
I noticed a major uptick in drivers heading to work this morning.
People are figuring this out for themselves.
Oh I think people ‘want’ to be back at work and will do so when their place of business opens. The desire to return has clearly been seen and heard by people within communities with fewer cases of Covid....which are most areas throughout my state of Pa....... exceptions would be the areas in and surrounding Philadelphia and Montgomery County who have 50% plus cases and deaths of the entire state.
Given the vast variety of flu strains it is difficult to develop one to provide immunity in any given season. As I understand it, it boils down to an enlightened guess.
However with covid, a vaccine to target a precise, known bug, has better odds of efficacy. I cite polio and small pox as precisely targeted disease.
Any way, like the man says, we’ll see
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