Posted on 04/14/2020 7:59:14 AM PDT by Kaslin
If the American public stays home en masse even after public officials lift stay-at-home orders, the ‘re-opened’ economy will look nearly as morose as the current one.
If we reopen it, will they come? That paraphrase of the signature line from “Field of Dreams” illustrates a dilemma facing the Trump administration, along with state and local leaders, as they contemplate when and how to reopen elements of the economy shut down by the coronavirus pandemic.
Just because the Trump administration gives word that individuals and businesses can reopen doesn’t mean that most, or even any, of them will do so.
A dozen years ago, former Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) caused a minor uproar during the middle of the 2008 presidential campaign when he characterized the nation as in a “mental recession.” His remarks drew outrage, but they accurately describe one of the two predicaments the American economy faces: Both the coronavirus and the fear caused by the virus.
Even as the nation’s leaders work to resolve the first problem, they also must work diligently to resolve the second. When restarting economic activity, all Americans have a voice: They can spend, or not spend, money as they please. If the American public stays home en masse even after public officials lift stay-at-home orders, the “re-opened” economy will look nearly as morose as the current one.
Polling shows a surprising level of support for most of the actions taken to curb the virus, even at the expense of the nation’s economy. A Fox News poll taken last week showed that 80 percent of Americans support “a national stay-at-home order for everyone except essential workers.” That comes despite the fact that 50 percent of Americans said they, or someone in their household, had lost a job or had hours reduced because of the virus and related shutdowns.
Why do an overwhelming majority of Americans support such a drastic shutdown of the nation’s economy? The polling shows that, as of April 4-7, most Americans fear the virus:
The American people do worry about the virus’ potential to cause a recession (91 percent are very or somewhat concerned), and inflict economic hardship on their families (79 percent very or somewhat concerned). But the survey shows that, at least as of last week, they fear the virus more than they fear the economic consequences of the virus. Perhaps for this reason, a 47 percent plurality believe President Trump has not taken the virus seriously enough, whereas only 4 percent believe he has overreacted to the pandemic.
Some might believe the American people have in fact overreacted to the coronavirus. They of course have their right to hold those beliefs. But trivializing people’s fears—as opposed to reasoning with them in a way that puts them at ease—won’t encourage people to begin resuming their normal lives, and will likely keep the economy stuck in neutral (or sliding further backwards).
Despite the lack of focus on the topic to date, the messaging component of reopening the economy seems critically important to its success—as important as getting the timing right of the reopening. The administration needs to approach the American people where they are—anxious about the virus’ spread—and offer clear explanations not just for what they are doing, but why:
This advice applies not just to President Trump, but to governors and other policy makers as well. For instance, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases said Friday that he envisioned a “real degree of normality” by around the time of this fall’s elections. His statement seemed somewhat surprising, given prior comments by Fauci and others about a possible “second wave” of coronavirus infections hitting this fall.
In an evolving response to a pandemic, facts and circumstances can change rapidly, as scientists learn more about the virus, and humans’ responses to it. But whenever scientists change their models, or political leaders alter their guidance and recommendations, both must explain to the public why they have done so. Only transparent data, communications, and explanations can ensure the public buy-in necessary to bring the economy back to life at the appropriate time.
With the current pandemic, policymakers need to work the problem—both of them. They must break down the component parts associated with reopening our economic and civic institutions: the conditions that must be met prior to a reopening, the sequencing behind such an effort, and so forth.
But they also must explain openly, clearly, and repeatedly to the American people how and why they are doing so. Doing the former without the latter could result in more confusion, uncertainty, and continued economic stagnation.
The fact that Jim Lovell, the commander of the fateful Apollo 13 mission, survived to write about that experience 50 years on this past weekend speaks to the power of American ingenuity in solving problems, overcoming obstacles, and saving lives. Here’s hoping we see a reprise of that ingenuity for the coronavirus.
I see a lot of guys young and old wearing masks.
Kind of sad.
In the 2017-2018 flu season approximately 80,000 people died of influenza! It can be said, these vaccines are very unreliable. I don’t waste my time with them.
Implied in you post is the fact that those receiving the shot died. That fact isn’t in evidence. Also, it is more likely that those who died did not get the shot.
I never get a flu shot. I take massive doses of D3
#OUAN Open up America Now!!
....”I noticed a major uptick in drivers heading to work this morning. People are figuring this out for themselves.”....
Same here, though questionable if they’re going to work they’re certainly moving about more. Lowe’s and Home Dept remain open here and folks are continuing to do home projects at this time. But even with this I think people are willing to risk the virus because they know the hospitals here are not overrun and few cases.....population 13,500.. 143 confirmed cases with just 11 hospitalized....4 deaths...
60K projected deaths divided by 350 million of us means a .00017% chance that the average person will die of this.
Flu vaccines are tricky because flu viruses mutate quite a lot.
Ahead of the upcoming flu season they take an educated guess on what the predominant strain(s) will look like.
As often as not they are wrong.
Hmmm....experts getting something wrong, where have we seen this before?
We should give the all clear on May 1st. Cruises and sports events will be last to return. (June 1st?)
As I’ve said before, I think people will determine themselves how and what they will do to protect themselves and weather this time as they take into consideration the degree of the risk for themselves and their families.
I choose to ‘shelter in place’ these past couple weeks as things began to perculate in my ‘state’. However my community hosptials were well prepared and few cases actually needing hospitalization. I think people are more comfortable that if they get this virus there are options for treatment and if needed hospital care.
I also think people living solo, especially the aged, are better off not taking a risk in this heightned state of the spread of covid.
I think it’ll be part of our flu shots by next year.
I’m actually his granny, but that was an awesome compliment! Lol. Thanks!
Everyone will react differently based on their personal experience.
If they know someone who got seriously ill due to the disease they will be very cautious.
If they don’t, they may well return to normal activities.
At the end of the day, the virus is not _real_ unless you have personal knowledge of its effects.
This America in 1941 would have had Japan and Germany slicing America in half turning it into a carcass.
If the Soviet Union knew then during the Cold War what the Chicoms know now,they very well may have tried a biological attack.
Maybe even Bin Laden would try such an attack with 1900 infected.
How many Americans realize that total Coronavirus deaths are still 20758 short of the 2019-2020 season flu deaths, which nobody is panicking about?
I’m actually his granny, but that was an awesome compliment! Lol. Thanks!
....
Crap! I had a 50-50 chance and I blew it! LOL!
You’re a good Grandma!:)
. . . and “the media” will drag that out as long as possible."To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”
To a journalcrat, everything either looks like a crisis, or too much prudence is being exercised to keep it from looking like a crisis.
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