Preliminary results showed that the coronavirus had infected about 3% of the Indiana's population, or 188,000 people.
"That 188,000 people represented about 11 times more people than conventional selective testing had identified in the state to that point," Menachemi says.
And 45% of the infected people reported having no symptoms at all.
For Menachemi and his team, it was like finally getting a glimpse of the entire coronavirus iceberg, instead of just the part above the water.
And the data allowed them to calculate something called the infection fatality rate — the odds that an infected person will die. Previously, scientists had relied on what's known as the case fatality rate, which calculates the odds that someone who develops symptoms will die.
Indiana's infection fatality rate turned out to be about 0.58%, or roughly one death for every 172 people who got infected.
And the results in Indiana are similar to those suggested by antibody studies in several other areas. In New York, for example, an antibody study indicated the state has an infection fatality rate around 0.5%.
Studies in Florida and California have suggested even lower fatality rates, but the results are less certain, Rivers says.
"They may have enrolled people who are more likely to have been infected than would be ideal," she says, which would lead to an overestimate of infections and an underestimate of the infection fatality rate.
An antibody study in Santa Clara County, Calif., used Facebook ads to find participants — a tactic unlikely to attract a random sample. Also antibody studies become less accurate when conducted in areas where the prevalence of infections is low.
I wonder if this is because the virus, at least in Indiana, may have mutated to a less deadly form.
Some epidemiologist should take this new information on the IFR rate, couple it with the various estimates of the R0 rate with and without distancing, and compare that to the initial spread data.
I’m surprised NPR published this.
Now I can cite this to my NPR loving co-workers. Thank you for posting.
“CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season1.”
This is the US 2018-2019 Flu statistics. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.
And not one store is shuttered or people confined to their homes. Imagine how many took flu shots.
Isn’t the CDC at .28?
I know at least 2 people who got deathly ill in late Jan early Feb ....before corona virus got fashionable...who may have had it but never got tested. There’s probably tens of thousands like that.
bkmk
The whole GREAT Crisis was trumpetted by NPR and the other leftist mouthpieces.
Maybe they figure that they best ‘change their tune’ before it becomes obvious how wrong they were.
.
Call me when you experts have a clue
So it took them this long to figure out what many people here in another conservative websites have realized since day one. If it was so deadly, we would have seen massive numbers of retail workers and people get infected from my being the grocery stores and big box stores back in March when everybody panicked. We never saw any of that.
Greatest medical hoax in history
Demorats and media hit hardest film at 11.
Well duh
IOWs it’s less deadly than the seasonal flu but possibly a bit more contagious.
In other shocking news; rumor has it there’s gambling at Rick’s.
Anybody know the death rate of seasonal flu?
Reminds me of another study: “IQ tests point to stupidity among democrats”.
We’re not all gonna die??!!
I want my money back. They PROMISED.
Good grief. The assumption that the death rate is of the order of .5% has been around for at least 2 months. I figured it out from the death rate and reported infection rates by just looking at the published data.
I reported that here at FR as did many others.
So .....President Trump was right