Scientists: Without vaccine, we'll never reach herd immunity for COVID-19

If you had a dime for every individual viron In your body, you could pay off the national debt.

Smallpox and polio didn’t disappear because enough people were exposed. They disappeared because vaccines basically wiped them out.

Smallpox had been around for 2,300 years. You think it’s a coincidence that after 2,300 years of killing hundreds of millions of human beings around the world, smallpox just suddenly hit the surrender button 9 years in to a worldwide mass vaccination effort?

There’s nothing inevitable about everyone becoming infected by a virus in the wild. With a safe and effective vaccine, you can end it way before that.

SCIENCE!!

Could someone post the article from yesterday arguing that herd immunity is achieved at about 17% due to 80%-ish of the population already being by default immune primarily due to lifelong exposure to various other coronaviruses? (that's not a scientific paraphrase of the article, but hopefully close enough for someone who read it to remember where to find it.)

Thanks!

Typical ABC news b.s.

These epidemiologists ( various links in article) show why HIT ( herd immunity threshold) may be reached with about 20% infected, since it is looking like 70% of us of more are already naturally immune based on exposure to previous coronaviruses. Or for as yet undetermined readons. However, it does explain the models.

That is why NYC and other large cities are not showing an epidemic of serious illness. They peaked. The huge population now being tested shows exposure...not illness. And largely among the young whose risk of severity was always lower. That cycle that NY is past, is now repeating in other states. But with better treatment, help from the natural environment of summer, better treatments....and smarter Governors.

https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/

FauXi will declare all clear when the EC vote is taken...or stolen

There’s no vaccine for Ebola, yet, either, right?

“ A vaccine against >200 different viruses from at least 4 different families? That would take a lot of effort and money and it would have to change drastically every single year.”
I left off the sarcasm tag! Yes, vaccine for flu is idiocy!

Coronaviruses aren’t all the same. That label really just refers to a general structure and says nothing about the antigens or behavior. For instance, HIV is a coronavirus. Are you saying if I get SARS-CoV-2, I’m now immune to HIV? Because I’m pretty sure I’m not.

The only other species to share the Sarbecovirus subgenus with SARS-CoV-2 is SARS-CoV (AKA 2003 SARS, about 9,000 people in the entire world infected). Sharing the Betacoronavirus genus are MERS-CoV (MERS (about 1,000 cases in the world) and HKU1 (under 100 cases in the world). Nothing else in the genus infects humans.

In other words, when we look at things that are at least somewhat similar to SARS-CoV-2, we’re looking at around 10,000 people out of 7,000,000,000 who would have had a previous infection with any chance at providing any immunity.

There is, actually: https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/first-fda-approved-vaccine-prevention-ebola-virus-disease-marking-critical-milestone-public-health

Did you read the article and the links?

They do not KNOW yet what MAY have triggered T cells that may protect 70% or more of the population from covid infection, But it is a theory of why about 20% of a population may contract the infection and 80% not, as on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Which is why the virus infections decline in populations that reach 20% infection/exposure

It fits the models of peak and decline drawn from recent outbreaks. Which are the same for lockdown vs nonlockdown strategies

All of this is good news if time proves Farr, Leavitt et al correct
Not good news for vaccine investors

One of the best kept secrets around is BHT short for butylated hydroxy toluene.

It has been around for the better part of thirty years or more, has been approved as a food additive by the FDA as safe for human consumption in small quantities and using common sense. Without going into all the details which would fill many pages some of the benefits are difficult to ignore even so pharmaceutical as well as the medical profession does their best to do so. As a prophylactic it would serve its purpose very well until the right vaccine comes along, without any undesirable side effects, besides being inexpensive and is safer than alcohol consumption, use of tobacco or many other unhealthy eating habits, including many prescription dugs with many undesirable side effects.

Some of the reasons are that that there is no money to be made by pharmaceutical companies as patents related to BHT ran out long time ago and in order to have it approved for medical application it would require an immeasurable amounts of human tests with expenditures in the millions of Dollars which most likely will never be recovered.

On the other hand many doctors may know about it but will refrain from suggesting it as recommending anything which is not approved by the FDA would leave them wide open to lawsuits, as it is pretty well known that one of the American dreams is, to fall on your neighbors property and then sue them for what ever they can get.

Over the years enough information about BHT has surfaced that if used in small quantities to achieve a particular result, such as from 100 mg to about 1g (one gram or 1000mg) and in most cases 250mg to 450mg may do a nice job for some of the things suggested, it may be less harmful than an equivalent amount of Aspirins. Again do your own research and use common sense which appears to be in short supply these days. Should you decide to try don’t go overboard with it, as more is not always better.

Even so if you still apprehensive or hesitant, use it only when one of those nasty viruses appears on the scene and use it as a prophylactic in a small quantity perhaps up to 450 mg and once the danger subside stop taking it. The catch is that in order to do its job BHT works better before you get sick, as BHT will NOT REPAIR ANY DAMAGE which may already have been done by an infectious disease such as the corona virus. Even so if taken afterwards BHT will still continue to disable lipid covered viruses, but to repair any damage already caused may require different medications.

One suggested way of taking BHt is to dissolve the quantity you intend to take first in oil as BHT is only soluble in either oil or alcohol, but alcohol is nor recommended to consume along with BHT. One way of doing it is to dissolve 18 grams or 277 grains, if you happen to have a powder scale, of BHT in 200 milliliters of olive oil in a small glass bottle. The heat it up slightly in a microwave for maybe 35 seconds and then shake it a few times. A teaspoon of this substance, depending on its size will give you approx. 450 mg of BHT which in most cases should do the trick.

So why to take BHT on the firs place? It has been long known that BHT will damage the lipid layer or cover from LIPID COVERED viruses and the coronavirus happens to be just such a virus and by doing so will prevent such a virus from attaching itself and do its dirty work.

The Principal Benefits of BHT

In order of importance, supplementing with BHT can help with:

Reduce and prevent viral infections such as herpes, thus terminating their outbreaks. Also BHT is effective against many different human and animal viruses including CMV (cytomegalovirus),9 pseudorabies,10 genital herpes,11HIV,12 and some strains of influenza.13
These are just a few but not all of the viruses that have a lipid envelope and may be treated by BHT include herpes simplex I, herpes simplex II, herpes zoster, CMV, West Nile virus, HIV virus, influenza virus, hepatitis B and C viruses, avian flu influenza virus and the SARS virus. However, BHT has not been clinically tested to treat and address these infections individually, and there probably never will be as no money can be made. It may be of interest to note that a patent number US4350707 has been taken out on the inactivation of LIPID COATED viruses with BHT approximately 30 years ago, and in the meantime this patent has expired.

The CORONAVIRUS is also a lipid covered virus and BHT affects the lipid covering and in turn prevents the virus from attaching itself and do its damage. Now keep in mind that very few things in life are perfect and this holds true for vaccines as well. So when everything comes down to being cut and dried, do you prefer risking being infected with a nasty virus with all kinds of unpredictable side effects or take a chance with some substance which overall has a very good safety record.

Besides most viruses will mutate over time, and from what I just have read they certainly do, and by the time someone may come up with the proper vaccine it may no longer match the virus which is currently making its round. But BHT doesn’t care if such a virus mutates or not. As long as such a virus has a lipid coating it will damage it and disable such a virus.
One of my hunches is, of course it is only speculation and is based on common sense. As BHT interferes with a Lipid covered virus and deactivates it, some viruses may sneak by and there will also be a given amount of viruses which have been deactivated and no longer are able to cause any harm. However whatever remains in form of deactivated viruses or some which may have snuck by may be just enough to wake up our immune system to fight the real life virus should you become infected.
Basically this how immunization generally works, by injecting a deactivated virus then hope our immune system responds to it and begins to fight the real thing by means of antibodies it has developed in he mean time. I for one and I am quite sure there are many others, have been using BHT off and on for the past thirty years whenever one of these flu like viruses made their rounds and so far had very good luck with it.
If you are interested enough you may want to watch this short movie clip on YopuTube………
BHT and Coronavirus | LIFE EXTENSION BOOK RESEARCH ...
www.youtube.com › watch
And by he way and for what it is worth...
To date, there has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine made, due to the nature of the virus. Additionally, past attempts to create a coronavirus vaccine have ONLY RESULTED IN LEAVING THE VACCINATED PERSON WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF SERIOUS ILLNESS AND DEATH WHEN LATER EXPOSED TO ANOTHER STRAIN OF THE VIRUS.

You miss the point-

The plague, small pox... none of these diseases killed everyone, and they all came and then left once a high enough percentage of the population had been exposed.

***Herd immunity is a reality and works even without a vaccine.***

The plague for example killed about 1/3 of the population in Europe in it’s worst wave, and small pox killed many native Indians, but never did these diseases kill everyone.

As to vaccines. They work in some cases but have gotten far more credit than they deserve (over sold in modern times by the push to get people vaccinated by government and the medical establishment). Many of the most lethal diseases out there have been eradicated or reduced because of modern sanitation, plumbing and refrigeration NOT vaccines.

https://www.cdc.gov/plague/maps/index.html

These diseases still exist. People are not vaccinated but they do not spread because of the conditions we have created. Which brings up an interesting inverse correlation that exists between the lethality of a disease and its ease of spreading (how contagious).

But you do what most people do, give vaccines the credit for what your plumber, refrigerator, pest control, food inspector, sewer, Army Corps of Engineers, trash man and dump have accomplished for you: a massive reduction in diseases.

In some cases vaccines were highly effective, such as with polio or small pox, the latter which you mention, but today these examples are used where they are not applicable, i.e. vaccines with a marginal effectiveness such as the seasonal flu. Not all vaccines are very effective. Likewise, arguments/ideas like herd immunity will be used when selling vaccines, but will seldom be mentioned now since it does not fit the narrative. Everyone will twist this corona virus into what they want it to be.

However, none of that changes the fact that once enough people are exposed, this virus will go away, all by its own. Even without a vaccine once 50 - 90% of the population has been exposed, the disease disappears because the paths of transmission no closed. Without a vaccine in hand, when we created a mass (blanket for all) social distancing policy and shut everything down, ***we only delayed the inevitable.*** The logical solution would have been to isolate a small at high risk population and let the disease run its course (the opposite of what we did). Once the disease passes then those at risk are safe and can come out. Sweden had it right-

Yeah... and I have technically been vaccinated against anthrax (for real).

The problem with many vaccines is that they do not work practically. LOL

1. They often do not offer life long protection (short duration).

2. Some like the early forms of anthrax vaccines I received (the old 5 shot series) have serious side effects.

3. Many vaccines only have a “probability” of being effective, i.e. that your immune system actually begins providing the desired protection.

4. There are ~320,000 viruses that affect mammals, and many such as the flu alone is about 1,000 various viruses. They basically just guess what virus it will be and give you the vaccine, and they often guess wrong. With the flu they guess wrong about 30% of the time.

5. Often when the vaccine is administered, it’s to late, i.e. the person has already been exposed and will get it anyway.

There are many variables.

I know this is America and we believe in a technological solution to everything. We don’t want to fix ourselves or actually deal with the problems at hand and would rather just throw money at every problem. And of course there is always a politician and business offering a magic pill, may it be scanners at airports after 9-11, hardening our facilities after HRC sat on her hands in Benghazi, more computers and textbooks as our schools fail, pills for fat people that eat bad and don’t exercise (most diabetes, high blood pressure, cholesterol gout and gird)... America has ALWAYS had a snake oil salesman offering a solution. Reality don’t work like that and of course we still have Islamic terrorism right here in the US even with our idiotic body scanners at airports, the schools didn’t get any better even with massive spending on computers and new textbooks, and ultimately the obese will still fall apart and eventually end up with much more severe medical problems. The same is true with vaccines. Yes, they are good, they have a purpose and they can help, but they are no “magical fix.”

Case fatality of 4.74%???

Bwahaha. The MSM are both shameless and idiotic.

Smallpox didn't just go away. It came year after year for 2,300 years. Sometimes it killed millions at a time, sometimes tens of millions. In its last 100 years, smallpox killed an estimated 500 million human beings. It didn't kill everyone on Earth, but it wiped out huge swaths of people. Polio didn't kill everyone on Earth, but year after year outbreaks left many people dead and many more crippled for life; most of them children. It absolutely terrorized parents for generation after generation. You think a parent who's lost a child to polio cared that other kids lived? You think someone who is crippled for life is thanking their lucky stars?

If the plumber and the food inspector and the trash man were all that were needed to eradicate disease, we wouldn't have any diseases anymore. Yet here we are, still dealing with diseases, including new ones like SARS-CoV-2 that's killing over 130,000 Americans. What we need is a constant herd immunity to help contain outbreaks. The quickest and least painful way to achieve herd immunity is with safe and effective vaccines that are widely deployed.

Each of these diseases was brought to its knees at very different times. All of those times just happen to be directly after widespread vaccine use. You really think every single disease we vaccinate against just decided to surrender at that exact moment for no other reason? Smallpox decided after 2,300 years to just disappear from the entire Earth for no reason, unrelated to the massive worldwide effort to vaccinate everyone against it?

What an amazing coincidence! That after 2,300 years killing hundreds of millions of human beings, smallpox vanished from the face of the Earth after a 9 year smallpox eradication effort using mass vaccination!

"1. They often do not offer life long protection (short duration)."

So you mean I have to get another 2-second shot one or more years later to massively lower my risk of death? Oh well suddenly it doesn't seem worth it! /s

"2. Some like the early forms of anthrax vaccines I received (the old 5 shot series) have serious side effects."

Side effects from vaccines are less than one in a million. Literally, that's it. The vaccine injury compensation fund will pay out anyone who can provide a reasonable accusation of harm from a vaccine. There is no need to prove you were actually injured. There is no need to have a medically sound trail of evidence. You simply make a reasonable claim of injury and they pay you a 6-figure payout. And even with that insanely low bar and huge payday, they pay out about 1 time per million vaccination shots.

"3. Many vaccines only have a “probability” of being effective, i.e. that your immune system actually begins providing the desired protection."

And many are at or near 100% effective. Still, take the Influenza vaccine: on a good year it'll be 50% effective, thanks to the fast mutation rates of the viruses involved. That's still 50% fewer people who have to get infected before herd immunity is achieved. And that's ~50% fewer deaths. Considering Influenza kills 37,000 people per year on average in the US, that little shot is saving tens of thousands of lives in the US each year. For a 2-second shot your insurance covers 100%.

"We don’t want to fix ourselves or actually deal with the problems at hand and would rather just throw money at every problem."

Vaccines ARE fixing ourselves and actually dealing with the problem at hand. Vaccines are why parents in the US today aren't terrified of polio crippling or killing their kids. They're why millions of us are still alive instead of dead from smallpox. They're why we no longer have huge hospital wings filled with iron lungs. You get a handful of shots and your life expectancy suddenly spikes way up. Seems like a darn good deal to me.

“Literally,” that’s not the case. Take it from someone that got the anthrax vaccine and had a reaction, me, personally.

Not all vaccines are the same.

The small pox vaccine which is very safe, been around a long time:

“In the 1960s, serious adverse events associated with smallpox vaccination in the United States included death (1/million vaccinations), progressive vaccinia (1.5/million vaccinations), eczema vaccinatum (39/million vaccinations), postvaccinial encephalitis (12/million vaccinations), and generalized vaccinia (241/million vaccinations).20 Adverse events were approximately ten times more common among those vaccinated for the first time compared to revaccinees.20 Fatality rates were also four times higher for primary vaccinees compared to revaccinees.21” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1069029/

There is about 1 death in a million, but the rate of people having adverse reactions to this is by an order of magnitude (200 times) larger than you claim.

Some vaccines work very well, have a low incidence of adverse reaction, but not every vaccine is like that and today some folks use a broad brush to paint all vaccines as effective and low risk.

Let’s use the flu vaccine for example. There is a 30% chance they guess it wrong, i.e. do not mass produce and immunize against the strains that are actually spreading. Then the vaccine only has a 40 - 60% chance of being effective, i.e. your body actually making the antibodies.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm (40 - 60% does not include the 30% probability of guessing it wrong all together).

So while the flu vaccine has few adverse reactions, it is not very effective and the flu even if you get it, is generally not very lethal (also over played by the MSM and pro-vaccination crowd).

On the other hand, small pox has about a 95% chance of being effective (much higher than the flu). Finally, the flu vaccine only lasts a limited time and often people get it to late. So how effective is the flu vaccine? Not very. How effective was the polio vaccine? Extremely high.

https://www.iep.utm.edu/fallacy/#LackofProportion

https://www.iep.utm.edu/fallacy/#HastyGeneralization

https://www.iep.utm.edu/fallacy/#Oversimplification

Rhetoric alone is no argument.

In reality, the best approach is one tailored to someones travels, career, age, sex, race, pre-existing medical conditions, and sexual behaviors. For example, my daughter is with a boy she met in high school. They will marry soon and it’s the only boy she’s ever been with and she’s the only girl he’s ever been with. What is the logical reason you can give me for them getting an HPV vaccine as was mandated by the state of Texas a few years ago under Rick Perry: https://www.cdc.gov/std/hpv/stdfact-hpv-vaccine-young-women.htm

Will they get HPV by swimming in a lake? Tripping and falling? Someone sneezing in their face?

The broad brush approach simply does not make sense, and much of the “standard of care” in the US amounts to horrible conveyor belt health care. We have today created exactly the system we once made fun of in socialized health care systems and not surprisingly, the results are the same. But of course we are the best, number one, bla bla bla...

Not all vaccines make sense for various reasons.

The human condition is complex with a lot of variables.

The nature of government run health care, which America has (NIH with its “standard of care,” CDC, FDA, DEA... involvement in healthcare) has created the one size fits all solution.

Some vaccines are very effective.

Some diseases are very lethal or debilitating.

Some vaccines have a low rate of adverse reaction.

Some diseases are highly contagious.

You are applying a broad brush, pretending all vaccines are highly effective, all vaccines have low side effects, and that all diseases are lethal and unavoidable without a vaccine.

Unfortunately, even though your reasoning uses a vaccine with a low rate of adverse side effects when convenient as an example, uses other and more more effective vaccine as an example when convenient, and then uses very deadly diseases when convenient, the reality is you don’t get to pick and choose the combination. Your argument falls apart somewhat with the flu vaccine and near entirely with a mandatory requirement for HPV (behavioral based illness that is entirely avoidable) vaccine. The argument you make is sort of like this: cars are perfect and will cure all our transportation issues because they are safe (Volvo), efficient (Leaf), perform well and are practical (Mercedes AMG SUV), are cheap (Yaris), use up little space (Smart) and can tow or carry a lot (F350). Now, show me the car that has all these attributes in one? That’s what you’re doing with vaccines and arguing that they are all perfect and a fix to everything.

Then when someone points out that vaccines while beneficial also have their down sides and limitations, you argue they are anti-vaccine.

Absurd and a waste of time. Argue with someone that can understand your colorful charts.