Posted on 07/08/2020 9:27:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
On June 26, Dr. Anthony Fauci announced it's "unlikely" that a COVID-19 vaccine with 70-75% efficacy taken by two-thirds of Americans can provide herd immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.
His statement has since stirred discussion about America's anti-vaccine movement.
A crucial question remains unanswered, however: Is COVID-19 even subject to herd immunity? From universities to sports teams, top experts are still debating this issue.
While the world anxiously awaits a vaccine, the length and durability of the protective immunity it would provide is far more in doubt than one might think.
A new study from China shows that antibodies can disappear in two to three months. The study further found that immunity is shorter for asymptomatic patients than symptomatic ones: The less symptomatic a person is, the weaker the immune response and antibody strength. "Young people who have mild disease or asymptomatic disease, their antibodies may never rise very high," said Sankar Swaminathan, chief of infectious diseases at the University of Utah. "We don't even know if those antibodies are protective."
How does herd immunity work?
Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease -- either through prior illness or vaccination -- so that contagion from person to person is unlikely.
According to Johns Hopkins, 70%-90% of the population (230-300 million Americans) needs to develop protective antibodies to COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity.
Approximately 2.74 million Americans have tested positive for the coronavirus, over 130,000 of which have died (case fatality of 4.74%). By contrast, the case fatality of the flu in the U.S. is roughly 0.1%.
Absent the existence of a COVID-19 vaccine, any reasonable extrapolation of the data -- even at half the current case fatality rate, means we will see a seven-figure body count that exceeds 5 million deaths
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Isn’t H1N1 from the Spanish Flu from 100 years ago still around?
That's really disheartening. I was hoping herd immunity would be achievable closer to 60 or 65%.
Yes, it’s included as part of the annual Influenza vaccine.
yep... got it in January (diagnosed in the hospital, H1n1) sickest i’ve ever been and I’m a young guy relative to avg FR age!!
No one knows anything. Time will tell.
There seems to be disagreement with JHU’s assertions here:
“Today, our national HIT(Herd Immunity Threshold) is roughly 15%, which means we are almost done, no matter what any Governor does.”
“The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%
This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above(attached) looks the way it looks.”
https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/
And here(charts, numbers, discussion):
https://wmbriggs.com/post/31431/
JHU is all-in and all aboard the Money Train.
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/about
We trust them as far as we can throw them, which is not at all.
Democrats rejoice.
Why anyone with a brain in their head would listen to anything this Fauci idiot says is beyond me.
people have always faced these things.....and always will.....
Well, if you look at the numbers (even though we know they are not accurate), in the United States some 40 million people have been tested and positive cases number 3,009,611, or just 7.73% of these tested, and this is not nationwide; there are hotspots. Of total cases, just 131,594 have died. That is 4.3%. Half have been elderly. The total population of the United States is a little over 328.2 million, and thus the total cases are just 0.91% and deaths are just .04% of the population.
Makes
No
Sense
King Tut is a young guy relative to avg FR age!
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ vs. cents
That’s not how herd immunity works... it isn’t dependent on a vaccine.
Of course it is. So is the plague, polio, small pox...
You can reach herd immunity without a vaccine, once enough people have exposed.
Depending on how contagious the disease is, 50 - 90% of the population need exposed before it goes away, which it will all by its own once we reach that point. As thousands of times before in the history of mankind (viruses existed before the US media and politics discovered them), this virus will simply disappear once the paths of transmission are closed regardless of what protective measures we take which merely “delayed” the inevitable without a viable vaccine.
So people, Let’s get this through our heads. It’s no longer “flatten the curve!”. It is now “We must never completely lift lockdowns or we will all die!”
If this is the guy you're looking to you might want to reconsider.
"Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it looks."
That's intentionally deceptive. HIT has nothing to do with death rate, only infections, which are increasing.
It is not unusual for persons who have a weak or shortened course of a virus to not fully develop antibodies. It is the same with needing boosters for vaccines. I have come to be skeptical about experts who announce their small scale controlled studies should be applied wholesale to the general population despite any empirical evidence that contradicts it.
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