Posted on 08/20/2020 1:20:32 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Biden (D) 46.9, Trump (R) 46.5, Jorgensen (Libt) 3.7, Other 1.2, Undecided 1.7 (p. 3)
(Excerpt) Read more at drive.google.com ...
The state was not regularly polled in 2016. RealClearPolitics only tracked two statewide polls, and they gave Hillary a nearly 10 point lead. The internet polls (not tracked by RCP) were only slightly less favorable for Hillary.
In my estimation, the gap was nearly closed by a last minute collapse of support for Johnson, and by Trump winning the undecideds. There may also have been some silent support (or, poll bias).
With Minneapolis succumbing to chaos, we should do better this year.
There's also a Senate seat and several competitive House seats in play.
Turn out will be key; also: appealing to the relatively large number of Libt's, and to smaller numbers of Other's and Undecided's.
and yet there’s the stupid Libertarian...meh
Wonder if Kanye is gonna try for the ballot there?
I would argue...within Hennepin County (metro Minneapolis county) that the 2016 vote for Hillary (429k, 63-percent of the vote) will NOT occur this time around.
I don’t think it’ll go past 350k votes. Trump still loses in Minneapolis, but state-wide....there’s going to be well over 100k more votes for Trump this time around, and easily his state to win.
Same for St Paul (Ramsey County)...Hillary’s 177k 2016-votes won’t be met, and Trump probably picks up another 15k votes there.
Jorgensen (Libt) 3.7
If Trump wins Minnesota Jason Lewis we’ll come with him.
Not factored:
- Trump supporters hanging up
- Voter fraud on Election Day
It doesn’t matter who votes, but who counts the votes.
Flipping Minnesota would take some pressure off of Trump in Arizona which I’m a little concerned about. Picking up a Senate seat would be really nice too. Given that Doug Jones is a dead man walking in Alabama, winning one in Minnesota or in Michigan would make it very difficult for the Democrats to gain control over the Senate.
Polls are a worthless waste of time.
We need Kayne on the ballot as someone’s 3rd party candidate-if he got just 3% of the black vote that could be enough to tip some states-Blacks voted 93% against Trump so most would come from Biden
I’d love to see Minnesota flip and Jason Lewis flip the Senate and 3 houses.
‘Polls are a worthless waste of time.’
in one more month they are going to be quite accurate, as the pollsters start cleaning up their act and people start paying attention...
“”I’d love to see Minnesota flip and Jason Lewis flip the Senate and 3 houses.””””
President Trump can win here. People are really fed up with the democrats allowing everything to be destroyed.
Nice polling, just down .4%, so we might be up. What’s the party breakdown? Maybe some of the Libertarian/Others voters are really Trump supporters, who is not going to tell the pollsters that?
Had the election been a week later in 16 Trump would have carried MN... I fully expect him to win it this time
Any state he lost by less than 5 I expect him to win most if not all of them this time.
I expect him to win every state he won in 16 As well handily.
PA is my only concern due to mail in vote fraud. Not because he won’t win the state... but the mail in vote garbage is a huge risk for extreme fraud here.
I think Trump has a decent shot at New Hampshire as well. One reason! Colleges Virtual. Students will be at their parents home wherever that may be.
In one more month voting starts! September 4th North Carolina begins vote by mail for November election.
11% more women than men were surveyed.
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