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Calm Down, Despite Media Hype Covid19 numbers are Dropping Fast
The Franklin County Journal ^ | 21 Aug 2020 | Dwight D. Weidman

Posted on 08/21/2020 7:24:53 PM PDT by Ikemeister

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To: ifinnegan

Also the data in the uptick wasn’t reported in chronological order ... so it was manufactured as well.


121 posted on 08/23/2020 4:17:45 AM PDT by willyd (I for one welcome our NSA overlords)
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To: TigersEye

So I’ve been looking at covid numbers comparing deaths in this country to other countries.

Naturally one would think “How can other countries’ death rates be SO MUCH LOWER than the U.S.?” Then the conclusion is “They must be treating it differently than we do here.” A google search for how covid is treated in other countries yields NOTHING new since May. I find this very odd.

Also, almost every freaking week, I read a headline or article about “Doctors seeing good results with treatment X.” Then, crickets. A few weeks later digging around shows the “FDA won’t approve the use of treatment X without more evidence.” There is at least one “swamp monster” who is pulling the strings of the FDA to work against Trump. For sure.


122 posted on 08/23/2020 7:26:55 AM PDT by a real Sheila (Love my golden retrievers!)
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To: Ikemeister

Covid 19 may not be as deadly but you can’t just use numbers, Our healthcare system is better, we have better treatments to fight disease, information travels faster so migiation strategies work better. This isn’t 1918.


123 posted on 08/23/2020 8:32:44 AM PDT by Almondjoy
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To: palmer
Methane and other molecules are 100 times smaller than the virus. And masks are not to stop viruses but droplets at least 100 times larger than the virus.

Your confusion about the sizes of particulate can be excused because about 90% of the info available even on the size of coronavirus particulate is complete garbage. Coronavirus particuate is approximately 10 times smaller than particles found in cigarette smoke.

The droplet argument is a good example of the nonsense being spread. Around 95% of the masks people wear these days are not even designed to keep out large dust particles. They do collect droplets when someone sneezes, but as those droplets evaporate in the mask they are aerosolized and blown out in smaller sized droplets during the act of breathing. These are much smaller than the droplets coming out of a sneezing persons mouth so they float around longer and are more easily inhaled by other people.

Even the Washington Compost cites a study showing that most masks are completely ineffective and bandannas, “neck gators” and masks with exhalation valves are worse than wearing no mask at all.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/mask-test-duke-covid/2020/08/10/4f2bb888-db18-11ea-b205-ff838e15a9a6_story.html

124 posted on 08/23/2020 9:26:41 AM PDT by fireman15
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To: willyd

“Also the data in the uptick wasn’t reported in chronological order ... so it was manufactured as well.”

Amazing.

Really, that does rise to the level of hoax.


125 posted on 08/23/2020 11:08:52 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: fireman15
Coronavirus particuate is approximately 10 times smaller than particles found in cigarette smoke.

https://www.afssociety.org/cigarette-smoke-size-distribution-and-effects-on-filters/ i.e. 0.1 to 0.3 microns. SARS2 virus is 60 to 140 nm or 0.05 to 0.14 microns. So no, that's not really correct.

Even the Washington Compost cites a study showing that most masks are completely ineffective and bandannas,

No disagreement. For most people in most normal situations a mask is useless. Some cloth masks can be worse than useless. A properly fitted N-95 mask is useful but doesn't stop virus output because of the valve. A surgical mask can be better than nothing, but has to be thrown away. Sneezing inside a mask is obviously going to make that mask much less effective. Few people do that though.

126 posted on 08/23/2020 11:24:45 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: a real Sheila
Take a look at this post.

If you take NY and NJ out of the numbers for the U.S. our death rate wouldn't look so bad. Two severely mismanaged states pull our numbers down significantly.

127 posted on 08/23/2020 12:51:14 PM PDT by TigersEye (Wear Your Mask-Stay In Your Home-Do What You're Told-Vote Democrat)
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To: jurroppi1; Ikemeister

I just saw the commercial again it was for stay safe Minnesota. The statement was there’s no returning to normal.


128 posted on 08/23/2020 8:21:36 PM PDT by jurroppi1 (The Left doesn't have ideas, it has cliches. H/T Flick Lives)
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To: palmer

Thank you for taking the time to look it up and including the link. Cigarette smoke contains particles that are typically between .1 micron and 1 micron in diameter.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0095852260900374#:~:text=From%20these%20measurements%20it%20was,between%200.2%20and%200.25%20micron.

The article you found refers to “median particle size” of cigarette smoke. You did not provide a source for “median particle size” of coronavirus particles just the range in sizes. The statement made did not refer to median particulate size either. You are making an apples to oranges comparison.

The numbers that would seem to be an apples to apples comparison would be .1 micron to 1 micron vs .05 microns to .14 microns. Those numbers do not actually prove that the statement that I repeated from another source “Coronavirus particuate is approximately 10 times smaller than particles found in cigarette smoke” is false. Do we typically find particles in cigarette smoke that are 1 micron or larger? Yes. 1 micron is 20 times larger than .05 microns and over 7 times larger than .14 microns. Obviously there are molecules and particles within cigarette smoke that are much smaller than 1 micron but this does not invalidate the statement made... not that it actually matters. The face coverings and dust masks people typically wear are not useful for filtering cigarette smoke or coronavirus particulate.

The argument that they contain the droplets from a sneezing person might have some validity if the covering or mask does not have an exhilation valve which actually increases the velocity of the expelled droplets. But if the covering is not changed immediately after an infected person coughs or sneezes they merely act as a seive and as the mucus or flem particles dry the coronavirus particulate is released over a longer period of time and unlike the droplets will remain suspended in the air for an extended period of time. I think the source for the Washington Compost story covers this as do others. This is one of the reasons why bandanas, and similar coverings have been shown to be worse than no face covering at all.


129 posted on 08/24/2020 8:32:44 AM PDT by fireman15
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To: fireman15
I think you are considering a small subset of cigarette smoke, above 0.2 microns to push a point. But the point itself is irrelevant. Nobody caress if masks filter cigarette smoke or not.

Likewise nobody cares if non-N95 masks filter virus particles or not. They don't. Only properly fitted N-95 masks filter virus particles. Masks are used to to stop droplets.

he argument that they contain the droplets from a sneezing person might have some validity if the covering or mask does not have an exhilation valve which actually increases the velocity of the expelled droplets.

That's not my argument either although I inadvertantly adopted it. 99.9% of the usefulness of a mask in the real world is to stop droplets from the vocal cords. People who cough or sneeze into a mask should not be in public at all. The vocal cord droplets are about 1 micron and up: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z/figures/2

Granted a cloth mask will do very little to stop 1 micron droplets. A surgical mask should stop quite a few of them. Yes, you are correct about N-95 output valves making things worse. Those should not be used in public, only in hospitals or situations with COVID patients.

130 posted on 08/24/2020 10:51:37 AM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: palmer
I do not think that we actually disagree on anything that has any substantial impact on anything. As far as the ratio of particles in cigarette smoke over .2 microns... I had never seen a study previously that made any analysis of the percentage of particles that were more than a certain diameter, but one would expect that the smoke from other types of fires would tend to have larger particles than cigarettes.

My nonscientific 25 years of experience crawling around in various types of fires would indicate that smoke gets into absolutely everything. Despite wearing protective clothing that one might think would stop it, everything stinks after you have been in a house fire including your underwear and your skin. That would indicate that the particles are smaller than one might believe and that dust masks and even N95 type masks are worthless in smoke, that is one of the reasons why we wear Self Contained Breathing Apparatus and not some type of filter mask.

131 posted on 08/24/2020 5:02:25 PM PDT by fireman15
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To: fireman15
From your link: sizes ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 micron, peaked between 0.2 and 0.25 micron. which baaically agrees with what I said. Also keep in mind that you are smelling the volatile hydrocarbons in the smoke which are about 0.001 micron or so.

It's the same argument I hear a lot: if I can smell something, then I can be infected by a virus. It assumes I am smelling droplets of something. But that's not correct, I can smell molecules which are 1000 times smaller than any droplet.

even N95 type masks are worthless in smoke

Due to the volatile molecules, not the particles. You will die in a burning house with an N95 mask, no doubt about that. Here's how: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2396464/ Bottom line: various gases can kill you (100 times smaller than the virus) and particles containing acids and other toxins. Some of those particles would be stopped by some masks although the article doesn't go into that.

132 posted on 08/24/2020 6:49:00 PM PDT by palmer (Democracy Dies Six Ways from Sunday)
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To: palmer
The exchange between us started when I commented on your statement from post 94, “Methane and other molecules are 100 times smaller than the virus. And masks are not to stop viruses but droplets at least 100 times larger than the virus.”

Parts of this statement are not completely accurate, but I have done a poor job trying to explain why... it really does not matter, and I do not have the energy to go into it again. So I started my post by saying that I did not believe we disagreed on anything of substance. I wasn't making an argument, I was trying to add validity to your points as a conciliatory gesture. I am sorry that my post was not clear enough to make this obvious to you.

I was a the senior officer in charge of a big city Hazmat team for many years. We drilled with teams from the military, other municipalities, and had instructors with various backgrounds from all over the country teaching continuing education. Myself and most of the members of my team had more than just a few college level classes in chemistry and biology, in some cases they had degrees, and a lot of experience working in labs and in industrial facilities before joining our team.

This entire mask fiasco from my point of view and my previous co-workers point of view is the most ridiculous nonsense that we have ever witnessed in our lifetimes. My wife is a retired nurse and department head with decades of hands on clinical experience... she feels the same way. We are so offended by all the nonsense that it is sometimes difficult to engage in a rational conversation about it. The situation (not you) reminds me of when people ask my wife for her advice because they are feeling poorly. Sometimes she finds that they are eating a diet consisting of almost nothing other than bacon and hamburger. She spent years teaching nutrition and exercise classes and set up and ran "fat boy" programs at some of our local military bases. When she tells people who approached her for advice that their diet may have helped them to lose some weight but that their diets are not healthy or sustainable, she always gets a ration of crap back in return. This crap is always peppered with quotes from various diet guru books, videos and websites. These days she doesn't even bother trying to refute them because it is a futile waste of her time.

133 posted on 08/25/2020 8:15:04 AM PDT by fireman15
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To: palmer
The smoke residue that permeates our gear, our clothing , our underwear and our skin and leaves visible stains, is mostly soot which is made up largely of particulate which is much larger than coronavirus particulate. It still gets into everything.

But smoke residue is also a witches brew of largely unknown chemical compounds depending on what was burning. We had incredibly expensive equipment including mass spectrometers that could gather mountains of raw data from samples we collected that is then analyzed with powerful computers and software to try and determine what the samples were actually made up of. But even knowing what substances were involved in the fire, something like smoke residue is typically so diverse that all we could really determine without waisting weeks or months were probabilities that we had various percentages of certain chemicals that we were actually looking for to begin with. Everything can be thrown off if some unknown substance was present.

I do not necessarily agree or disagree with your conclusions concerning smoke but your reasoning as stated is vastly oversimplified and may or may not have a great deal of validity in any argument. And that is the problem with Hazmat and so many other fields such as this... the more you dig, the more uncertainty you often introduce. So it all comes back to the application of "common sense", something which completely disappears as soon as any type of political influence is introduced.

Sorry to ramble.

134 posted on 08/25/2020 8:50:04 AM PDT by fireman15
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