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Calm Down, Despite Media Hype Covid19 numbers are Dropping Fast
The Franklin County Journal ^ | 21 Aug 2020 | Dwight D. Weidman

Posted on 08/21/2020 7:24:53 PM PDT by Ikemeister

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To: crusty old prospector

How does that even come into your mind?


61 posted on 08/21/2020 9:35:10 PM PDT by coaster123 (Distrust every person under sixty, every institution over eight.)
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To: central_va

Thought so.


62 posted on 08/21/2020 9:35:28 PM PDT by coaster123 (Distrust every person under sixty, every institution over eight.)
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To: coaster123

You wear a mask to bed. You fear death. Admit it.


63 posted on 08/21/2020 9:35:59 PM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: JBourne

Are you okay? Should someone call an ambulance for you?


64 posted on 08/21/2020 10:02:44 PM PDT by gogeo (It isn't just time to open America up again: It's time to be America again.)
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To: crusty old prospector

I think you may be right. There is something strange about all of this.

I wash my hands so much that I can’t remember the last time I got a cold.

You work in an oil field?

Now that is one manly job. ;)


65 posted on 08/21/2020 10:08:03 PM PDT by proud American in Canada (In these trying times, "Give Me Liberty or Give me Death!")
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To: All

O’Donnell’s laws of masking ...

Leftists wear masks, insist on others wearing them, force them to wear masks to enter their places of business or be in their presence socially.

The hidden reason for this is to hide their faces for shame at not recognizing that Trump was right and they were wrong.

Their insistence that others wear a mask is meant to humiliate and silence dissent.

It is now a political symbol that means “Trump and all other populists out, globalist agenda in.”

It has almost nothing to do with the spread of the coronavirus which is going to happen anyway.


66 posted on 08/21/2020 10:09:39 PM PDT by Peter ODonnell (Pray for health, economic recovery, and justice.)
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To: gas_dr; JBourne

LOL!

Yes, let’s ghetto it up! ;)

With my sincerest apologies to anyone who was offended by my comment.


67 posted on 08/21/2020 10:10:40 PM PDT by proud American in Canada (In these trying times, "Give Me Liberty or Give me Death!")
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To: Monty22002

Election years are the worst around here.

Many flame wars.


68 posted on 08/21/2020 10:12:58 PM PDT by proud American in Canada (In these trying times, "Give Me Liberty or Give me Death!")
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To: Ikemeister

They’ve been dropping since the end of June. This whole ‘’pandemic’’ has been the biggest BULLSH!T ever perpetrated on the American public.

Day after day in the hospital I work in I see normalcy has
returned as far as doing elective surgery again, physical therapy is being done again, all the sections of our ER are back to normal, including minor treatment( that doesn’t mean kids, just routine, non-life threatening stuff).


69 posted on 08/21/2020 10:26:35 PM PDT by jmacusa (If we're all equal how is diversity our strength?)
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To: JBourne

Not on your life. Liberals go apoplectic when you use it on them.

Also chad. It insinuates a white spoiled rich frat trust fund kid.
And not the rioting kind...

Liberals lose their crap over that one


70 posted on 08/21/2020 10:42:46 PM PDT by DrewsMum
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To: coaster123

My aunt says that to every cowardly man she encounters. It’s pretty hilarious


71 posted on 08/21/2020 10:54:44 PM PDT by DrewsMum
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To: crusty old prospector

It’s analyzing most people are coming to the flubros truth ....


72 posted on 08/21/2020 11:07:53 PM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America: INCLUDING THEIR LIBERTIES)
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To: Ikemeister

It’s not really valid to compare total case and death counts from an ongoing pandemic to one which has long since completed. That would be like saying on July 17th 1969 that Apollo 11 was a failure because nobody had walked on the moon. They were still in flight. You can’t judge the outcome of something that is still in progress. The case counts and death counts for COVID-19 are incomplete at this time, and also very preliminary. Two years after the end of the pandemic we can accurately compare the outcomes, but we don’t know what the outcome is yet for COVID-19.

We could look at the R0 values and the CFR/IFR numbers, but even that requires the use of preliminary data for COVID-19 and estimates based on incomplete data for the 1918 flu pandemic. If we’re to do so anyway, we’ll see that the R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated between 2.2 and 3.8. For the 1918 Spanish flu, R in the summer is estimated to have been 2-5.4 and in the fall it fell to 1.2-1.6. The latter wave was far more deadly for Spanish flu, but also spread far less effectively than SARS-CoV-2.

The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is currently 3.5% (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries take deaths divided by cases for CFR), but that’s falling as testing increases and we catch more cases with mild or no symptoms present. The infection fatality rate (rate of death independent of missed cases) is estimated between 0.64 and 0.66%. The CFR for Spanish flu 1918’s summer wave was 0.35%, then 2.3% in the fall and 1.7% that following winter. The sum is 1.7% (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2674012/).

If we were to judge based on those numbers, SARS-CoV-2 spreads faster than the latter two waves of the 1918 Spanish flu and kills more often (based on CFR). However, two things are key here: 1) we’re missing a lot of cases. Not only here, but especially globally. So that CFR is known to be quite high relative to what it actually is in reality (again, IFR estimated at 0.65%, vs CFR at 3.4%). And 2) what we didn’t have in 1918 were the tools to rapidly combat the disease. We have treatments which are improving case outcomes and we’ll soon likely have one or more vaccines available which should quickly bring the pandemic to an end before it can fully do its damage.

In the US, about 8.4% of the population has been infected so far (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ calculated taking the total deaths divided by the current best estimate IFR). By the most wildly optimistic estimate, the herd immunity threshold lies somewhere in the neighborhood of 43%. The R0 range suggests it should be somewhere between 55% and 74%. So our absolute worse case scenario (highest R0, no vaccine ever developed, no further improvement of treatments) puts us on track for a result that’s about 75% of what Spanish flu did (0.4884% population loss from COVID-19 vs 0.6553% from 1918 Spanish flu based on 675,000 US deaths from here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm and 103 million US population in 1918 from here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2740912/). Actual numbers would likely be lower (probably closer to ~64% of the death rate for 1918’s Spanish flu based on 65% HIT and 0.65% IFR), since what we looked at was the absolute worst-case scenario for COVID-19.

That’s a fair comparison, based on the information we have available today, of what a final outcome for each would look like without modern medicine. However, thanks to modern medicine, we’re improving outcomes for many patients being treated and we’re very close to a vaccine that should halt the pandemic altogether. So we need not worry. We can thank President Trump for his leadership in creating the regulatory and economic environment that’s bringing us the fastest vaccine in human history while still having it go through all the normal phase 1, phase 2, and phase 3 human clinical trials to ensure it is both safe and effective.


73 posted on 08/22/2020 1:01:25 AM PDT by 2aProtectsTheRest
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To: proud American in Canada

I Wear My Face Mask in the Car
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DDXG-dHugc

To the tune of I Wear Sunglasses at Night.

Hilarious.


74 posted on 08/22/2020 1:50:19 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Ikemeister

Simple solution to the pandemic,,,,Make HCQ and Azithromycin OTC drugs so anyone who develops a cough and/or fever can go the nearest drug store and self medicate with the drugs along with Zinc Sulfate with correct dosage within 48 hours of symptoms and pandemic over.,,,,,instead of waiting a few days to get tested and 5 days for the results,,,,if over 60 years of age,,,,you’re dead.


75 posted on 08/22/2020 3:16:13 AM PDT by chopperk (L)
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To: Ikemeister

Simple solution to the pandemic,,,,Make HCQ and Azithromycin OTC drugs so anyone who develops a cough and/or fever can go the nearest drug store and self medicate with the drugs along with Zinc Sulfate with correct dosage within 48 hours of symptoms and pandemic over.,,,,,instead of waiting a few days to get tested and 5 days for the results,,,,if over 60 years of age,,,,you’re dead.


76 posted on 08/22/2020 3:17:33 AM PDT by chopperk (L)
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To: JBourne
A black Karen is a Shaniqua. 😄
77 posted on 08/22/2020 3:37:00 AM PDT by Disambiguator
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To: JBourne

‘please stop, the “Karen” reference is an over done teenage meme...’

please desist; the Karen reference on this particular forum is perfectly understood in its proper perspective...


78 posted on 08/22/2020 4:10:00 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: jeffersondem

‘Democrats want to scare people and control them. Covid allows that.’

yes, but at some point, probably after a decent interval after the election, the narrative about covid will have to change, otherwise the Biden economy will be undermined...look for the media coverage to covid to shift to positive stuff like declining deaths, declining cases, and uplifting popular confidence...


79 posted on 08/22/2020 4:35:41 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: jeffersondem
See my post #8 up-thread.
80 posted on 08/22/2020 4:52:16 AM PDT by jurroppi1 (The Left doesn't have ideas, it has cliches. H/T Flick Lives)
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