Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Our Defeat In Afghanistan Is Only The Beginning
The Federalist ^ | September 2, 2021 | John Daniel Davidson

Posted on 09/02/2021 7:28:39 AM PDT by Heartlander

Our Defeat In Afghanistan Is Only The Beginning

As the post-9/11 chapter closes, a new one begins, marked above all by the end of American deterrence and the eclipse of American power.

Our total defeat and ignominious, disastrous withdrawal in Afghanistan, after 20 years of war and nation-building, closes a chapter on post-9/11 America — and opens another.

What comes next is to some extent uncertain, but you don’t need to be a grand strategist to see the broad outlines of what is already taking shape.

First and most obvious, Afghanistan will revert to being a terrorist haven. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, by its very nature, will not keep to itself, the erstwhile assurances of Taliban officials notwithstanding. Every committed jihadist on earth who can get to Afghanistan is headed that way now or making plans to do so.

Our military leaders have already admitted as much. Two weeks ago, well before the suicide bombing attacks that took the lives of 13 American soldiers and scores of Afghans, the Pentagon told U.S. senators that the collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban takeover means terrorist groups will reconstitute in Afghanistan more quickly than was previously estimated.

On an August 15 phone call with top Biden officials and senators from both parties, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said the previous assessment, back in June, was that there was a “medium” risk that terrorist groups would form in Afghanistan within two years of the U.S. withdrawal. Asked if he believed that timeline would have to be moved up in light of recent events, Milley reportedly responded, “Yes.”

In practical terms, this means in the years to come we’re almost certainly going to see a resurgence of Islamist terrorism worldwide, and likely another attack on American soil. Why? Because for al-Qaeda, and for jihadists the world over, the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan is a vindication of 9/11, a strategic victory. After 20 hard years, they won and we lost.

Osama bin Laden predicted something like this would happen. Not long after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, bin Laden issued a “letter to the American people,” in which he declared that, like the Soviet invasion of an earlier generation, the Americans would eventually leave in defeat:

If the Americans refuse to listen to our advice and the goodness, guidance and righteousness that we call them to, then be aware that you will lose this Crusade Bush began, just like the other previous Crusades in which you were humiliated by the hands of the Mujahideen, fleeing to your home in great silence and disgrace. If the Americans do not respond, then their fate will be that of the Soviets who fled from Afghanistan to deal with their military defeat, political breakup, ideological downfall, and economic bankruptcy.

Bin Laden and those who planned 9/11 recognized the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan for the strategic error it has proven to be. All of them understood the collapse of the Soviet Union as a direct consequence of the USSR’s failed invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, and credited the mujahadeen with the collapse of the communist superpower. It might take time, but the same would happen to the United States should it be foolish and arrogant enough to invade and occupy the country. And we were.

For all that, a Soviet-style collapse of the United States won’t happen. But our humiliation in Afghanistan will have global reverberations. The military power of the United States was the last institution of public life Americans really trusted, and it was the foundation of other nations’ trust in us — or fear of us.

Our adversaries will react accordingly. China, above all, will understand our defeat in Afghanistan as the end of American deterrence and a chance to press its irredentist agenda in Taiwan and the South China Sea. Moscow and Tehran will come to similar conclusions, as will Pyongyang.

Indeed, over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that North Korea has resumed operation of its plutonium-producing reactor at Yongbyon, which had been inactive since December 2018. The operation of the reactor has apparently coincided with signs that North Korea has also begun to separate plutonium from spent fuel previously removed from the reactor.

For our allies, the end of American deterrence will likely prompt a strategic recalibration. Why would Taiwan, which this week issued a dire warning that China’s armed forces could “paralyze” Taiwan’s defenses, put its faith in an alliance with the United States? Why would Ukraine or Poland?

As we learn more in the coming weeks and months about the fecklessness and deceit of the Biden administration’s Afghanistan withdrawal — including Biden’s appalling conversation with then-President Ashraf Ghani, urging him to “project a different picture” of the fight against the Taliban, “whether it is true or not” — every nation in the world will take note of what our promises are worth.

Some of these developments will take decades to mature, but others will move rapidly. By the end of Biden’s term, assuming he’s able to see it through, we might well long for the days when all we had to worry about was our humiliation in Afghanistan. We’ll certainly come to see the events of the past few weeks in a stark new light: as the beginning of a dark chapter in world history, marked above all by the eclipse of American power and influence in an increasingly dangerous world.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 911; afghanwithdrawal; alqaeda; china; isis; islamterrorism; osamabinladen; taiwan

1 posted on 09/02/2021 7:28:39 AM PDT by Heartlander
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Heartlander
"a Soviet-style collapse of the United States won’t happen"

I'd say the odds are better than 50/50.

2 posted on 09/02/2021 7:30:23 AM PDT by fruser1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

The military power of the United States was the last institution of public life Americans really trusted, and it was the foundation of other nations’ trust in us — or fear of us.

_____________________________________________________

Trust in the military was eroded quite some time ago. It just took Conservatives longer to see it. Not until the rise of Woke leadership, did the average Conservative see just how dangerous a large, politically-driven miliary could be.

Furthermore, it’s been used as a tool for the Corporatists/Globalists for quite some time, while using “national security” “or “national interests” as the buzzword to scare/con your typical citizen into supporting it.


3 posted on 09/02/2021 7:32:44 AM PDT by Bishop_Malachi (Liberal Socialism - A philosophy which advocates spreading a low standard of living equally.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

China could roll in and occupy the entire west coast, and this regime would nothing do to counter them.


4 posted on 09/02/2021 7:43:52 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Enough. Divide the country.. now. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

The next battle is for Europe. They defeated the West in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now they are going on the offence.

When the Taliban armies show up on the borders of the EU, I don’t expect them to give much more resistance than the Afghan Army did.


5 posted on 09/02/2021 7:47:10 AM PDT by Renfrew
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fruser1

We are going to end up like Russia - a hollowed out, economic disaster with a superpower-level military.


6 posted on 09/02/2021 7:49:45 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

This war had become a sideshow. The leaders were incompetent and more focused on their careers than on winning. The citizens were indifferent to the suffering of the Soldiers and the Afghan civilians.

Some wanted the sideshow to stop because of the damage it was causing us.

Others wanted it stopped so that there would be more government money to buy votes with.


7 posted on 09/02/2021 7:55:48 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer”)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

“Oh, yeah— well we GOT osama bin laden— cause obamaumao said so and they “proved it” to congress and all”.

but they dumped the “body” at sea, took so called DNA samples that have yet (and will never be) verified to the public,

and we have an active legal, represented true whistleblower in one Alan Harrow Parrot (former head falconer to the House of Saud), who provided recorded telephone conversations with former Cong. Curt Weldon (R-PA) and joebama bidens attorney and “fixer” for the biden crime family.

Recordings affirming that OBL has been protected in the mtns of IRAN under their protection. That the US, beginning with GW Bush paid billions in protection money to Iran and others... for the agreement that OBL and al-qaeda would not attack the US. That the cash payment made to Iran by obamaumao— was a large payment for just this purpose, made under the guise of 1.) a supposed Hague Court settlement on non-fulfillment of an arms deal made with the Shah Pahlavi, 2.) in the context of a “sweetener” of the Iran Nuclear Deal, which has NOT been honored in any way.

And NOW we have the further payment in MILITARY hardware left to the TALIBAN (which IS al-Qaeda without question)—of $ 89.2 billion in US equipment LEFT in Afghanistan.

ALL- part of the continuing paying off of islamofascists by the US, and the globalists are all smiling. When we could and should wipe them out, and do it now.


8 posted on 09/02/2021 8:03:17 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

Terrorists won at 9/11 causing huge death counts and destruction only to have Biden hand now hand over another victory in giving Afghanistan over to those very terrorists.


9 posted on 09/02/2021 8:03:36 AM PDT by caww ( )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

We’ll be speaking Mandarin or Dari this time next year.


10 posted on 09/02/2021 8:07:43 AM PDT by bgill (.Which came first, the vax or the virus?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

Thanks for that John.

Not a solutions guy are you?

Dig a hole John. Lay in it. Ask a friend to bury you alive.

I’ll help.


11 posted on 09/02/2021 8:16:04 AM PDT by Eddie01
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander; central_va
More evidence of President Biden’s war on reality is found in this line in the president’s speech: “We’ll continue to speak out for the basic rights of Afghan people, especially women and girls.”

kiryandil: “The Servpro MSM™ will clean up this Afghan mess “like it never even happened!”

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/3991003/posts?page=18#18

#18 posted on 9/1/2021, 8:18:57 AM by central_va

12 posted on 09/02/2021 8:42:36 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (If I wanted to live in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK, China, Cuba, Chicago/NYC! I'd move there )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

Does anyone think we couldn’t have thoroughly routed the Taliban if we had really taken the gloves off?

Does anyone think we couldn’t invade Afghanistan next week and make it our 51st state if we really wanted to?

That’s why the refrain that we’ve been defeated and humiliated and lost our powers of deterrence rings a little hollow to me.

That “victory parade” by the Taliban reminded me of flies buzzing around a dung pile left by some large animal that had moved on to another field.

The Afghanistan fiasco just highlights what everyone already knows, which is that the United States is a peculiar kind of superpower. We have zero imperialist ambitions and are conflicted about everything — always worried about appearances and collateral damage, always stymied by our internal dialog, always pulling our punches, always fighting with one hand tied behind our back.


13 posted on 09/02/2021 8:54:17 AM PDT by Yardstick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Yardstick

“always pulling our punches, always fighting with one hand tied behind our back.”

Tell that to the City Fathers of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

L


14 posted on 09/02/2021 8:56:49 AM PDT by Lurker (Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is. )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Lurker

I mean in the post WWII era of course.


15 posted on 09/02/2021 8:58:00 AM PDT by Yardstick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA
If we went to war with China, we would lose as spectacularly as the French did when they lost to the Germans in 1940. And for all the same reasons.

Read William Shirer’s “Collapse of the Third Republic.” Everything that rotted out the French from the inside in the 1930s has been at work in America since the election of 0bama.

16 posted on 09/02/2021 9:35:41 AM PDT by henkster ("We can always fool the foreigner" - Chinese Proverb)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Renfrew

Western civilization is dead, a spent force. The next great bloodletting will be between the Chicoms and Islam, and they will be fighting over our carcass.


17 posted on 09/02/2021 9:37:39 AM PDT by henkster ("We can always fool the foreigner" - Chinese Proverb)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

Clicked on a map of the area yesterday. I admit I didn’t realize how close geographically Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are to each other - they all have common borders with each other.
One state already has nukes, one is only weeks away. The third has $82B in new, top-notch weaponry.
They share a common religion - barbaric, anti-Christian, anti-Western, expansionist.
I dread the thought, but what if they join forces? Maybe they already have…


18 posted on 09/02/2021 10:04:59 AM PDT by ZOOKER (Until further notice the /s is implied...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fruser1

What is next? Societal, economic, cultural collapse. Complete disintegration. Texas and other states won’t choose to secede, it will be the only option, the only way forward.


19 posted on 09/02/2021 8:22:54 PM PDT by One4Life (It's all about control )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Heartlander

The Woke, Leftist Prime Minister had locked down the whole country due to the first COVID case in months. She is a big time Gun grabber.
——————————-
ISIS-inspired ‘terrorist’ Killed After Stabbing Six In New Zealand, Say Authorities
New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern said that she had been “personally briefed on the man in the past but there had been no legal reason for him to be detained.”

August 3, 2021

ISIS-inspired Islamic extremist who stabbed six people in what is being called a ‘terrorist attack’ at a supermarket in Auckland, New Zealand, was shot dead by the police on Friday, 3 September 2021. “This afternoon, a violent extremist undertook a terrorist attack on innocent New Zealanders in the New Lynn countdown in Auckland,” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told the presser. The Sri Lankan national, she said, was on a terror watch list and had managed to carry out a “hateful” assault on innocent civilians. The terrorist on the watchlist of the government’s “multiple agencies” was shot dead within the first 60 seconds after he entered a shopping mall in suburban Auckland, seized a knife from a display, and went on a stabbing spree, Ardern said.
The neutralized assaulter was inspired by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorist group also known Arabic acronym Daesh that primarily operates in western Iraq and eastern Syria but has infiltrated Afghanistan after the US military drawdown. According to a statement by the New Zealand police on the scene, the attacker had been a “person of interest” since 2016 for the law enforcement authorities but the assailant was pursued and killed. The police told Associated Press that they had been surveilling the assailant around the clock before he unleashed a frenzied knife assault on at least six, now critically wounded. At least three shoppers, who sustained injuries, were rushed to the Auckland hospitals. Two others, meanwhile, were in a stable condition, the police said.

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/isis-inspired-terrorist-killed-after-stabbing-six-in-new-zealand-say-authorities.html


20 posted on 09/03/2021 5:51:35 AM PDT by KeyLargo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson