Posted on 01/20/2022 6:49:53 AM PST by Kaslin
Many Republicans are giddy over a Gallup poll released this week that found a 14-percentage point shift in the nation from majority Democratic support to majority Republican support during the past year. Understandably so; this marks the largest Republican advantage in over 25 years. The last time Republican support was this high was in 1995, after the Republicans, led by my father, Newt Gingrich, won the House of Representatives for the first time since 1952.
But Gallup's findings don't mean that Republicans hold all the cards. The reality is that independents will have a massive impact on the elections' outcomes this fall. Currently, 42% of voters identify as independent.
Let's look at the data: In the first quarter of 2021, Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents were 49% of voters; in the fourth quarter of 2021, they had dropped to 42% (13 polls taken by Gallup of 12,416 people throughout 2021, sampling error +/- 1 point). At the same time, Republicans and Republican-leaning voters increased from 40% to 47% of all voters. Think of it as a -7 for Democrats to a +7 for Republicans, or a 14-point shift in how the electorate is leaning.
Again, these fourth-quarter numbers represent the largest Republican advantage in a generation. This is great news for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) as it will energize their candidates and their campaigns.
The Republicans could still overreach and underperform what they could achieve over the long term. But, if they carry out a well-planned strategy, they could not only win the midterm elections but they could change the country's political dynamics for decades to come.
Some Republicans around the country are pointing to these recent poll results as an indication of how the midterm elections will turn out (a sweep for Republicans). But nota bene: There is an eternity until the midterms, and the shift in the parties is due more to the shift in independent leanings than to any shift in party identification. Additionally, the December 2021 monthly data "showed the two parties about even," according to Gallup, with "46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Democratic/Democratic leaning."
Since 1991, when Gallup began measuring party leanings, Democrats have held the advantage over Republicans. "Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 1992 and 1999," according to Gallup, "and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009."
While Democrats have dominated during the period of measurement, "the GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991." The goal of the GOP should not be to just win the midterms but to win the midterms and set the stage to be the majority party for decades to come.
This will require the Republicans to pull independents into their fold. "Overall in 2021, an average of 29% of Americans identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 42% as independents. Roughly equal proportions of independents leaned to the Democratic Party (17%) and to the Republican Party (16%)."
This goal cannot be achieved by vilifying the other side nor by browbeating them based on their past lackluster performance. Bringing independents into the tent will require much more from the Republican Party and Republican candidates. Remember, the last time the Republicans held this type of advantage was after they took over the House of Representatives in 1994.
They were able to win because they had an overwhelmingly positive message. They laid out the Contract with America, which contained clearly defined issues that voters cared about, and those voters responded positively. A positive message, a focus on real issues and a quality candidate -- a winning combination.
While many candidates are running to former President Donald Trump for an endorsement, my recommendation is that no candidate should base their campaign on anyone's endorsement. Voters want to help the candidate who lays out a vision of a brighter future for themselves and their families. The focus should be on the voters, not other politicians.
It's easy to say, "Well, Biden's just so bad, there is no way we can lose." Whether in sports, business or politics, if your strategy depends on having a terrible opponent, you're not competing at the highest level -- and the American people deserve the best. Independents are currently in the drivers' seats and they're likely to remain that way. Republicans would be wise to give them the focus they deserve.
Is Newt’s daughter a RINO? Sounds almost like one.
The GOP is experiencing irrational exuberance.
Independents are falling away from Joe Biden because of Joe Biden.
Not because anyone is really offering them a realistic alternative.
At this point ‘of the names on the leader board, “none of the above’ is quite possibly their choice.
Former Trump fan here.
His latest ramblings…like his interview yesterday with Mark Levin….almost unbearable to try to follow.
Wrong, Jackie. It’s who counts the votes, just like two Uncle Joes took note of.
In other words, be moderate? No thanks.
They were able to win because they had an overwhelmingly positive message. They laid out the Contract with America, which contained clearly defined issues that voters cared about, and those voters responded positively. A positive message, a focus on real issues and a quality candidate — a winning combination.
While many candidates are running to former President Donald Trump for an endorsement, my recommendation is that no candidate should base their campaign on anyone’s endorsement. Voters want to help the candidate who lays out a vision of a brighter future for themselves and their families. The focus should be on the voters, not other politicians.
We should all have a clear picture in our minds of what we want, NOT what we don’t want.
Hint:
Our Founding Fathers had a clear picture in their mind.
Exactly what are you calling “ramblings”?
Trump ran on policies . . .policies that actually worked. The Lef/Dims/Media ran solely on “Not Trump” and won.
Worked for Youngkin. There's a certain set of repubs and independents that still loathe Trump. Not everywhere but in some places like suburbia. A deep red place, sure, go for a Trump endorsement. Swing place, might want to not talk about Trump even if he endorses you.
This article’s spin is absurd. Whenever the left wins they claim the victory as a mandate for leftist policies. Who can blame them? It is a mandate. However, when the right wins the Grimer Wormtongues seem to have better access to keyboards and microphones. They claim that the win was formed by liberals, that it’s actually a mandate for liberalism.
It’s horse puckey. It should be ignored.
And name calling and put downs which is what turned some people off.
No, they did not win.
The totally rambling unfocused Trump I really tried to listen to, but couldn’t
Yeah, he’s got a thousand grievances with biden and the Democrats
We all do
But man, lets stop beating dead ponies and lets focus on 2022 and beyond
Pick the most compelling reforms needed and go forth boldly
No, just sound moderate and calm and don't be crude or sound angry. Then when elected, go to town like Youngkin and DeSantis.
Then Hillary should have won in 2016. Right?
So Hillary’s name-calling and put-downs is somehow better? How about Brandon’s?
That’s not how they got in.
So nothing, then. You’re making it up.
NOT EXCITED and RINO’s gaining a majority in the House or Senate. Just think, a majority of Mitt Romneys. Doesn’t that sound exciting.....(vomit).
Discard my thoughts at will
If the GOP treats them with the same disdain, I think they lose the WH again
Registered independent here
Left GOP because of attitudes like yours
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