Russian forces likely seized Bakhmut center, threaten supply lines

NY Post ^ | 04/07/2023 | Olivia Land

[for-q-clinton]

poor writing. What he is trying to say is the supply route to Bakhmut is being threatened. And without it the soldiers in Bakhmut are at great risk for no strategic gain at this point.

[delta7]

Words are just words. I prefer to look and compare the maps, both Russian MOD, Ukie zmOD, and Western. Both are close, the only problem with the western maps is they “ lag”, ie, the western maps failed to show the fall of Soledar for 5-7 days.

Dima on You Tube - the Military Summary Channel is best, using both maps, BUT he monitors in theatre channels, news, reports , video, they confirm much- all that the west ignores.

As stated , we can see Bakmut is all but steamrolled, Avidivka next, high Russian priority to stop the Ukie artillery that has shelled Donetsk since 2015.

Live video from the Russian social sites now show a huge increase of “ Odessa Next” banners popping up all across the Federation….no loss of resolve from the Russian population, no matter what the corrupted western MSM will have you believe.

Russia does rightly view this war as a war with NATO and the West. That fact alone points to Russia accomplishing its goals, bankrupting the collective West, dividing and bleeding them White.

[higgmeister]

Rationalization is alive and well, living in a Neocon’s brain.

[Mariner]

“it will need NATO”

Anyone who thinks NATO will show up in the Pacific when the SHTF is smoking crack.

They won’t. In spite of treaty.

None of them, excepting those who accidentally get caught there.

It will be the US, Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Australia.

[FlyingEagle]

Zeepers not gonna like it.

[ansel12]

It depends on what you think war with Red China would be, a local war, or a massive war between Communist China and its allies against Western Civilization, the Philippines, Taiwan Australia, Japan, and possibly other Asian countries like Vietnam, and involving India and Pakistan.

War with Red China just might be an all-encompassing war fought until some major world issues are settled and China is set back for generations.

[ansel12]

By the way, the way you cut out that artificial quote makes it sound like I said something that I didn’t.

The actual statement was “”However or whoever or whenever the West fights China, it will need NATO and the American military better prepared, and better armed, with a reinvigorated weapons-producing West and greater awareness and unity on military issues, and a lessened Russian threat.””

[BroJoeK]

ansel12: "Some of the posters seem to be terribly upset at both running low on our military weapons and replacing those military weapons."

Agreed. My impression is they argue like typical Democrats, which is to say, they'll throw whatever cr*p they can scoop up against the wall, just to see what sticks.
So, in this example, if we send Ukraine our old stuff, then "OMG, we're running out of weapons & ammo".
Then, when we ramp up to build more, OMG, we'll never catch up, all is lost, we're doomed, run for the hills!".
Like modern day Denethors,

" 'Soon all shall be burned.
The West has failed.
It shall all go up in a great fire, and all shall be ended.'
In the film and in the book, he [Denethor] encourages Pippin to piss off and die in whatever way seems best to him."

[BroJoeK]

delta7: "Words are just words.
I prefer to look and compare the maps, both Russian MOD, Ukie zmOD, and Western.
Both are close, the only problem with the western maps is they “ lag”, ie, the western maps failed to show the fall of Soledar for 5-7 days."

I'd be near certain you'd see that same "lag" on the Russian side when it came to their retreats from Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson.
But I'm not certain that the exact position of trench lines, which don't change much in weeks or months, is all that critical.
What would be highly important are numbers -- of troops, weapons & casualties -- on both sides but, of course, we will never know those reliably until it becomes history, as opposed to current events.

delta7: "As stated , we can see Bakmut is all but steamrolled, Avidivka next, high Russian priority to stop the Ukie artillery that has shelled Donetsk since 2015."

It's curious, isn't it, how a propagandist will often use his own worst crimes to accuse his opponents of those very crimes?

"31 January 2017. An AFP reporter saw the separatists shell the town of [Avdiivka ] about 20,000 people with repeated rounds of Grad multiple rocket systems and artillery fire from the early morning.
'Right now, there is no power.
We have not resolved problems with heating homes, and the gas pipe has been shattered,' local Ukrainian army unit spokeswoman Olena Mokrynchuk told AFP [...]
The town's heating is provided by a coke plant that has been heavily damaged by the falling shells.
Plant director Musa Magomedov said it would be incredibly difficult to resume gas production were the factory's generators shut down.
That would leave Avdiivka without a source of local power and uncertainty about its future."

delta7: "Live video from the Russian social sites now show a huge increase of “ Odessa Next” banners popping up all across the Federation….no loss of resolve from the Russian population, no matter what the corrupted western MSM will have you believe."

So, let's see... if it's true that Russians are wildly enthusiastic about invading and destroying Ukraine, then is it untrue, right? that:

1. Circa 250,000 Russians have fled from Russia to avoid being drafted in Russia's military?

2. Russia is having to recruit prisoners to serve as cannon-fodder on the front lines in Ukraine?

3. Russia arrested a Wall Street Journal reporter for telling the truth about the sad state of Russia's economy?

4. Russia has lost circa 175,000 soldiers to death or injury, plus over 20,000 military vehicles, from planes & helicopters to tanks, APVs and artillery systems?

5. Something like 80% of Russia's available army is in or being cycled through Ukraine?

delta7: "Russia does rightly view this war as a war with NATO and the West.
That fact alone points to Russia accomplishing its goals, bankrupting the collective West, dividing and bleeding them White."

Oh, really? That's pretty amazing, when you consider that:

1. Russia's population is around 146 million, of whom roughly 100 million are actual Russians.
   Russia's GDP is most optimistically (meaning by PPP) put at $5 trillion.

2. The US population is circa 340 million, of whom nearly all are Americans.
   Our GDP is around $25 trillion, by either nominal or PPP.

3. The 28 member European Union population is around 450 million, of whom most all are Europeans.
   Europe's GDP is circa $21 trillion (PPP)

4. Our six Pacific Rim allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia and Canada) total about 370 million population, with GDPs totaling $16 trillion.

So let's add them up: Russia 146 million people, maybe $5 trillion GDP.

US and our allies: 1.152 billion people, $63 trillion in GDP.
So, we outnumber Russians eight to one in populations and twelve to one in GDPs.
So who, exactly, do you think is going to bleed whom dry?

Oh? So now you spring your BIG SURPRISE on us -- the Xi-snake's China will turn the balance of power in Russia's favor, right?

Well... Russia and China together have 1.558 billion people with $35 trillion in PPP GDP.
So, now it's a closer match, though US/Allies GDP is still 80% more than China/Russia according to PPP estimates.
If we go by nominal numbers, then we are three times the combined China/Russia GDP.

And if China/Russia do become dominant, then what will happen with other large countries which today try to remain neutral & friendly to all?

1. India 1.4 billion people, $ 11.7 trillion GDP
2. Indonesia 275 million people, $ 4.0 trillion GDP
3. Pakistan 236 million people, $ 1.5 trillion GDP
4. Mexico 129 million people, $2.9 trillion GDP
5. Turkey 85 million people, $3.3 trillion GDP

   Total of major "neutral" countries: 2.137 billion people, $23.4 trillion GDP.

Of those, India often supports Russia out of fear of China, but if China and Russia are allied, perhaps India will need new allies?

Plus there's this -- in addition to the US allies we'd expect to support Ukraine, there are at least ten others, perhaps surprising supporters of Ukraine, in alphabetical order:

1. Azerbaijan
2. Cambodia
3. Columbia
4. Iceland
5. Israel
6. Morocco
7. New Zealand
8. Pakistan
9. Sudan
10. Turkey

In that sense, arguably Ukraine is already a World War, even though there've been no battles yet outside the immediate theater of war.

This map shows how each country responded to the war in Ukraine.

[BroJoeK]

"Rationalization is alive and well, living in a Neocon’s brain."

Nonsense, and that's the best you've got?
You're going to throw names at me and call it a day?
You have no arguments, you have no facts, so all you can do is blast me with names?

You know, don't you, that's typical of Democrats.
Conservatives, Republicans usually try to make sense, present relevant facts, make logical arguments, usually try to avoid name-calling.

But who knows, maybe something about being pro-Russia brings out the worst in some people?

[higgmeister]

Read up the thread.   The arguments have been given but you have no ability to reason.   So yes, that's all I've got.

[wardaddy]

Your pal is wrong

Serious control of Bakhmut proper and it’s arteries of travel is pretty recent

Not from three months ago

As I understand it now from telegram orgs is that only sparse exposed open field escape to the due west is all that’s left to pockets of Uke resistance now

Muddy fields

I also read one channel claiming some safe passage to leave was offered to some youth platoons