Ukraine crunch coming: Zelensky on the rocks?

Now, again, Zelensky has made demands of Ukraine’s army, this time over his favorite hobby horse, Bakhmut while also insisting on the need to defend Avdiivka. Again the top leadership saw these two objectives as traps that would consume increasingly scarce manpower and equipment.

The fighting continues in both places, although the Russians have taken control of a strategic slag pile in Avdiivka which gives them unobstructed fire control over the city and a direct path to the massive coke plant that dominates the city’s skyline.

In Bakhmut the Ukrainians made some initial gains to the south of the city (in the north they were stopped outright), but now the Russians are getting ready to push them back. In general the prognosis is twofold: The Russians will continue to successfully push back Ukrainian forces and Ukraine will continue to lose manpower essential for its strategic reserve.

Zelensky obviously knows he could be replaced and fears that a deal might be made between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. That may explain why Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service (SBU) attempted to kill Oleg Tsaryov, a former Ukrainian legislator who US intelligence said was being groomed to replace Zelensky last year when Russian forces attempted a takeover of Kiev.

Tsaryov was shot twice and was found unconscious in Yalta. Ukraine says he is a traitor and he is on a list of other traitors. There have been a number of assassinations carried out by Ukraine’s SBU targeting Zelensky opponents.

The timing of the shooting of Tsaryov, an obviously high value target, suggests that Zelensky in anxious to liquidate potential challengers. Inside Ukraine he is also clamping down, arresting opponents such as Ihor Kolomoisky, a Ukrainian billionaire and banker, on charges of fraud.

If the military situation continues to deteriorate and the US Congress walks back at least some of Ukraine’s money, Zelensky’s tenure may have reached an end point. Zelensky could be on the rocks.

Your ridiculous theory is dumb.

Russia failed in all ways when they attacked, their intelligence misled them and their military planners and forces failed them, while the Ukrainians shocked the world with their tenacity and effectiveness.

The West and Ukraine are bleeding Russia dry and depleting what had been incredibly vast stores of weapons, equipment, and ammo, even their Air Force and Navy are suffering huge irreplaceable losses, and their Army is depleted of its decades of quality build-up.

All being done while the West is writing off old goods and rebuilding with new stocks, are watching and learning as the Russians fight the Ukranians, and all without losing a man.

NATO is getting better with new martial awareness, unity, military budgets and spending, and new weapons production and contracts, and this also applies to our other allies in the Pacific, NATO has grown with new members and another 830 miles of Russian border, and Western weapons are taking international market share while Russian weapons fall into disfavor.

5.5 months.

Ukraine won’t end as a nation and it was NEVER Russia’s objective to take all of Ukraine. Nor did Russia use their big stuff may that be nukes or conventional. It was always a limited conflict for Russia. What will happen over the next 5.5 months?

1.) A deal gets worked out.

2.) Most probable, the war simply fizzles out. That avoids politicians to get dirty hands. Ukraine and especially negotiating a deal where you can’t hide the reality anymore that you lost is politically toxic. So our leaders will simply wean Ukraine off of money and equipment over time.

***Once the gravy train from the West starts to get throttled, Ukraine has no choice.***

***(((Ukraine did not achieve their military objective which was to prevent Russia from seizing the Eastern areas))): https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 Things are static.

Ukraine lost 18% of it’s landmass. They lost a major steel mill and port city as well as the most significant industrial area in all of Ukraine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industry_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Ukraine_economy.jpg

***(((Ukraine is not part of NATO, nor will they be for the foreseeable future and this was the cause and political objective of this war.)))

When you FAIL at meeting your military and political objectives, you fail in the bigger picture.

But there is more-

Their population (living in Ukraine) is now at around 28 million, down from 41, and many will not return staying where they fled to (US, Western Europe). Long term this will be exacerbated by a birthrate that fell off as well: https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/ukraine-worries-about-population-loss-if-refugees-never-return/7177631.html The birthrate is now at 1.16 per woman (that’s a disaster): https://www.dw.com/en/why-ukraines-birth-rate-drop-amid-russian-war-is-concerning/a-67009602

Ukraine will not be part of the EU, the EU won’t want this basket case. Ukraine is now what you call a “liability.” That was sadly something which slipped out of Ukraine’s hands as a consequence of this war.

Ukraine is significantly in debt: https://www.ceicdata.com/datapage/charts/ipc_ukraine_government-debt—of-nominal-gdp/?type=area&from=2020-03-01&to=2022-12-01&lang=en

Ukraine’s GDP has shrunk by more than 37% since wars begin: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iEuQo44NrgV0/v2/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/-1x-1.png

Their currency has devalued: https://g.co/kgs/Drbmau (look at the 5 year view)

They suffer from high inflation of ~27%: https://d39raawggeifpx.cloudfront.net/styles/16_9_desktop/s3/articleimages/Ukraine_inflation_y_y_6.png

A severely damaged infrastructure, tens of thousands of invalids for a generation and with areas that are heavily mined, they will carry a heavy burden.

They have internal instability at this point and frankly even though no one says anything (must support Ukraine), everyone is concerned about what’s going on at this point: attempting to assassinate a Ukrainian legislator and potential rival of Mr. Z., corruption, jailing journalists, banning opposition parties, shutting down radio stations...

You’re trying to be sarcastic, but Ukraine already is finished.

They lost in every respect (did not achieve their political or military objectives).

The ONLY argument you have is imaginary casualty reports and some hope that a new Western weapon can change the tide but even the later won’t matter anymore.

This last offensive was it, Ukraine blew their wad since nearly 2/3rds of that counter offensive was with Western equipment and the West simply isn’t going to continue this. As the money and equipment gets throttled, things will just sort of become static and fizzle out. Ukraine cannot even pay for their own public servants and retirements. They depend on Western resources in money, weapons, intel, logistics, even people in a round about way (all the mercenaries) to keep this war going.

Ukraine is like a dead copse that still makes some gurgling sounds and twitches for a little while, and you see that to be victory.

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