Posted on 01/06/2024 8:34:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind
American foreign policy experts have long argued that China has been laying the groundwork for a permanent rise as a major global power, and U.S. politicians (particularly on the Republican side) have certainly counted the ways in which China is clearly our No. 1 geopolitical foe.
However, China's ascendency isn't without its setbacks, and at times it seems possible that China is closer to declining than rising. Their economy hasn't recovered since COVID-19, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been dealing with more internal struggles than were previously let on.
One such problem for the leader of the Chinese Communist Party is growing corruption in his military, which recently came to a head - and a major purge.
US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge came after it emerged that widespread corruption undermined his efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised questions about China’s ability to fight a war, according to people familiar with the assessments.
The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing intelligence.
The new report, which comes from Bloomberg, indicates a lot of problems for Xi as he tries to extend China's influence to counter the West.
Rampant corruption comes with the territory when it comes to having complete control over every aspect of your country, including the economy. According to U.S. intelligence, "corruption within the People’s Liberation Army has led to an erosion of confidence in its overall capabilities, particularly when it comes to the Rocket Force, and also set back some of Xi’s top modernization priorities."
The corruption, however, has resulted in some hilarious setbacks for Xi, according to the Bloomberg report, "including missiles filled with water instead of fuel and vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively."
U.S. think tanks and defense contractors believe that Xi aims to have a completely modernized military that is capable of taking on any global power by 2027. One such example is the rapid assembly of aircraft carriers and other naval vessels at a rate that far outpaces the U.S. Navy. But just because they can be rapidly assembled doesn't mean they're ready to go right away.
Other reports suggest China could have five aircraft carriers by 2030. However, some experts are skeptical that Beijing will use its aircraft carriers as intended for at least a decade. Instead, they think the vessels are more for propaganda purposes at this point.
“Carrier operations are a very complicated game, and China’s got to figure this out all by itself. It still has a long, long way to go,” TREVOR HOLLINGSBEE, a former British naval intelligence analyst, told Reuters in May.
But U.S. officials are frustrated by the fact that there is very little intelligence to go on when it comes to monitoring what Xi Jinping is up to. A purge of spies in China has left the U.S. blind, as we reported last week.
But is the U.S. overestimating China's rapid rise?
There is a lot of reason to believe that China is a global adversary - they've said as much in response to U.S. actions over the years - and the question often seems to be less "if" we'll go to war with China and more "when." But what little reporting we get out of China does suggest that the economic and military rise of China in the modern era may have already peaked.
It's impossible to say for sure, considering we are flying blind when it comes to gathering intelligence. But what we do know is that China isn't without its own issues, and that may benefit the U.S. in the long run.
Dang, I remember those.
China is in a world of hurt right now. They have an entire generation that is lying flat. The number of marriages and births is way down. There is a whole movement of people not wanting to get married because th y simply can’t afford it, they play at going to work. Huge corporations have left, like Walmart and moved to more friendly countries like Vietnam or Mexico. Foreign companies investment has crashed. Their zero tolerance of Covid lockdowns disrupted too many supply chains. Then there is XI paranoia about foreign companies and having sh regulations so companies can be shut down and those people arrested. Western companies used to certify production not made with slavery left .
Then there is the fire on one of their warships, the sub that killed its sailors, their carrier force is woefully inadequate and has no ncos. Heck their huge army spends most of its time learning hand to hand combat.
Chinese folks are suffering mighty.
Then their is the homegrown GPS which is a hot mess.
Didn't we do this already in Korea?
With 1.4 billion people, China is the world’s most populous country. It accounts for about 18.4% of the world’s population. The proportion of China’s population to the global population has been shrinking over the years. In 2000, it accounted for 21% of the global population. China’s population is approximately four times the US population, despite the US having a slightly larger total surface area.
You do NOT want a war of attrition!
China 1,425,671,352 United States 339,996,563
Yup. That about sums it up precisely. This rather new phenomenon among Chinese youth of ‘’lying flat’’ is really taking a toll on Chinese society.
The kids call it ‘’Let it rot’’. I wonder if those wild eyed fanatics of sixty years ago during The Cultural Revolution could ever have imaged this.
They don’t make anything good, that’s for sure. Even The Great Wall was breached many times by invading armies over China’s history.
And when The Three Gorges Dam goes, look out!
I cant go to China to see for myself to verify these things but tend to believe what Ive seen presented on that channel. I think there is a whole lot of propaganda on both sides and we Americans are getting fleeced by corrupticians from all sides.
Everything is effectively a con or a prop to facilitate a con.
You’re right. It is interesting. Another bookmark.
Yes interesting, but who is the China Observer? Some anonymous person?
These two guys are known, fluent in Mandarin, lived, worked, married, had kids, fled for their lives
laowhy86
https://www.youtube.com/c/laowhy86
serpentza
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCl7mAGnY4jh4Ps8rhhh8XZg
I’ve watched them It makes me sad because I don’t have anything against those people other than boiling dogs alive.
I can’t imagine if those folks were dead they could boil dogs at all!
I agree. But wouldn’t it be illustrative of China if they were using Sun Tzu’s philosophy? They growl, bluster, and threaten to look strong, and all the while they have water in their missiles and hatches which won’t open, preventing missiles from being launched.
They’d better be careful. That was Saddam Hussein’s mistake.
I think you're right about that and I think it's universal. ie China and the U.S. government are far from the only ones selling BS nor just governments.
Thanks, I’ll check it out.
In who’s eyes?
They’re just another Islamic gang boasting success. The world stage says they’re an emerging economy. Their greatest disadvantage is they are the west doorway to the Mideast. Their greatest advantage is Germany.
Ford is their number 1 exporter of vehicles, Toyota, second place. With that we can see they are real Islamic.
The asses didn’t have trucks until REO got there, then IH in the 50s. I agree with you, They’re real innovators.
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