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Demographic disaster may have an unappreciated upside
Asia Times ^ | 4/11/24 | Ichabod

Posted on 04/11/2024 9:01:34 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970

During the coming decades, it may become increasingly difficult to induce Americans to help defend any of the increasingly numerous countries with birth rates far too low to replace their population, even if a country in question is democratically governed.

There is scant evidence that a country’s having a birth rate far lower than is needed to replace itspopulation now diminishes Americans’ willingness to help it defend itself. US Senator JD Vance, speaking on the Senate floor on February 12 to oppose further US military aid to Ukraine, pointed out that “not a single country – not even the US – within the NATO alliance has birthrates at replacement level.” But did not mention Ukraine’s birth rate, which is lower than that of any NATO country save Malta.

However, American pundit David P. Goldman, in essays about Taiwan and Ukraine published by Asia Times in October 2021 and January 2022, suggested that those polities’ very low birth rates might warrant limiting Western military support for them. That may be a harbinger of things to come.

(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: birthrate; demographics
The article mentions that Israel and Saudi Arabia are the only developed countries with a TFR over 2.1 now. That surprised me as I had the impression no such countries were left. I did a bit of digging and it appears the Israeli birthrate is driven by a large portion of the population being conservative Jews; in Saudi Arabia there is a similar core rejecting Western secular mores, augmented by the large population of guest workers from poor nations. (If current trends held unchanged one could imagine that eventually the Amish would turn things around in the US as everyone else dies off.)
1 posted on 04/11/2024 9:01:34 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
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To: EnderWiggin1970

TFR = temporary flight restrictins


2 posted on 04/11/2024 9:22:34 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (Get out of the matrix and get a real life.)
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To: Repeal The 17th
TFR = temporary flight restrictions

That’s what it means in my world. And the other thing is that the police have the phonetic alphabet all wrong.

3 posted on 04/11/2024 9:54:51 PM PDT by noiseman (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Could this be a thinly veiled “You need to let 3rd world savages into your country or else we won’t help defend you if needed”?


4 posted on 04/11/2024 10:19:30 PM PDT by FrankRizzo890
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To: EnderWiggin1970

https://www.jns.org/2023-update-no-arab-demographic-time-bomb/


5 posted on 04/11/2024 10:19:31 PM PDT by jjotto ( Blessed are You LORD, who crushes enemies and subdues the wicked.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970
The case of Israel is interesting. If the Hasidic Jews start to outnumber the secular ones, then what will be Israel's policies with regard to the rest of the Arabs?

The Hasidim don't fight in the IDF, and they even believe there shouldn't be a state of Israel.

They might vote to create a single Palestinian state and then hope and pray that the Arabs don't slaughter them all when they take control.

6 posted on 04/11/2024 10:23:05 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear (Kafka was an optimist.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970
It is possible that the reason we seem to be going to war with Russia, China, and the Arabs in the Middle East is really about protecting markets.

If that's the case, then it is truly sad.

The essayist suggests that smaller populations will lead to fewer wars. However, the opposite might be the case.

If all economies are based on a Ponzi Scheme, i.e. they require more and more consumers so that businesses can profit, then fewer people will result in more aggressive tactics to get a larger market share of an ever shrinking economic pie.

7 posted on 04/11/2024 10:28:21 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear (Kafka was an optimist.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970
At China’s present fertility rate, China’s birth cohort will shrink by half every generation. To offset even half that loss with immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa would make China’s population mostly African in less than three generations.

these globalist ghouls just want to ship Africans all over the globe, don't they? Even to the most unlikely and unsuitable of places.

8 posted on 04/11/2024 10:30:05 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: who_would_fardels_bear

As a side note, I wonder how many Amish the USA really has

They have lots of kids, they stay in the country, and don’t submit to government counting or services, so I doubt lazy fed.gov bureaucrats have an accurate count

Maybe in 100 years, America will wake up and find the country is mostly Amish.


9 posted on 04/11/2024 10:32:38 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: who_would_fardels_bear

Israel is about 20% religious, about half religious Zionist and half hareidi, which includes Lita’im, chassidim, and a few other groups.

Among the hareidi, a significant percentage do serve in the military, enough that they form a subgroup among hareidi called hardalim. There are hardal units in the IDF.

As hareidi become a larger proportion of Jewish Israel, the IDF will have to drop its negative attitude toward them and make accommodations.


10 posted on 04/11/2024 10:50:54 PM PDT by jjotto ( Blessed are You LORD, who crushes enemies and subdues the wicked.)
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To: PGR88
They have lots of kids, they stay in the country, and don’t submit to government counting or services, so I doubt lazy fed.gov bureaucrats have an accurate count.

There just aren't enough Amish to make any decent impact. Where you see a lot of growth is amongst both Evangelical Christians and Mormons, which is an excellent sign. World wide, Christian Nigerians are doing quite well.

The rest of the world, including the arab World, Africa, and Asia is rapidly cratering.

What to Expect When No One’s Expecting and How Civilizations Die (this one goes off the rails at certain points, but overall is useful insight) are both good primers on the subject.

11 posted on 04/11/2024 11:34:50 PM PDT by End Times Sentinel (In the conflict between the stone and the stream, the stream will always prevail.)
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To: EnderWiggin1970
The article mentions that Israel and Saudi Arabia are the only developed countries with a TFR over 2.1 now. That surprised me as I had the impression no such countries were left. I did a bit of digging and it appears the Israeli birthrate is driven by a large portion of the population being conservative Jews; in Saudi Arabia there is a similar core rejecting Western secular mores, augmented by the large population of guest workers from poor nations. (If current trends held unchanged one could imagine that eventually the Amish would turn things around in the US as everyone else dies off.)

Being a Muslim state, marriage and families are encouraged, and men can have multiple wives if they can afford them. The Saudi royal family has long subsidized a high birth rate with social welfare programs rewarding families to have more children. The present crown prince has been trying to reduce such subsidies as unsustainable.
12 posted on 04/11/2024 11:40:09 PM PDT by Dr. Franklin ("A republic, if you can keep it." )
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To: EnderWiggin1970

Contrary to popular belief-

Data on the U.S. birth rate from the General Social Survey shows on avg 100 conservative adults will raise 208 children while 100 liberal adults will raise a mere 147 kids.

Those numbers are relatively constant for going on 20yrs.

Our TFR as conservatives should be near 2.1 and we should stop being warred on all time.


13 posted on 04/12/2024 12:07:40 AM PDT by Freest Republican (This space for rent)
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To: Freest Republican

shows on avg 100 conservative adults will raise 208 children


many of those children go to public schools and are indoctrinated into liberal adults.


14 posted on 04/12/2024 12:58:16 AM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: EnderWiggin1970
During the coming decades, it may become increasingly difficult to induce Americans to help defend any of the increasingly numerous countries with birth rates far too low to replace their population, even if a country in question is democratically governed.

I don't quite understand what birth rate, which can flex due to government policy, has anything to do with alliances or defense. Strategic position, technological capability, economic significance, and a host other factors should be of more importance. Think the Sudetenland in Czechia, plus their Skoda Works.

15 posted on 04/12/2024 1:43:53 AM PDT by magooey (The Mandate of Heaven resides in the hearts of men.)
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To: PGR88

It won’t be ‘Amish’. Not unless Amish gonna be speaking Spanish.


16 posted on 04/12/2024 2:24:11 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: PGR88

The Mormons have a total fertility rate of 2.8. That’s not spectacular but it means their population is growing even as the rest of the population shrinks. Given there are currently 8 million of them in the US vs about 370,000 Amish, it will still take the Amish a while to catch up even at 6-7 kids per Amish woman as is thought to be their birthrate.


17 posted on 04/12/2024 3:50:09 AM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: who_would_fardels_bear
It is possible that the reason we seem to be going to war with Russia, China, and the Arabs in the Middle East is really about protecting markets.

Why yes! Not only is it possible, but it is highly likely.

The West is trying to roll a snowball uphill -- and it's not going to work. We've dominated global society since 1945 and it's over. The rest of the world has "caught up." It's like when your kids grow up and start making their own decisions.

The time is long gone when we can dictate to the world. We are long overdue to change our approach from one of dictating our lifeways and standards to one of dialog with the rest of the world to find common ground.

Of course, we don't have to do this. If we refuse, we are in store for some very rough times and a huge decline.

Times change. We better, too -- or else.

18 posted on 04/12/2024 5:50:40 AM PDT by icclearly ( )
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