A Modest Proposal for a FReepers "Instant Alert Network"

On the morning of September 11, I was just getting ready to go in to work when the phone rang. It was one of our neighbors. "Did you know that two airplanes just flew into the World Trade Center in New York?"

No, we didn't. At the time, we didn't have our TV on. Neither did my wife's parents, who were doing repair work on a rental property and didn't hear the news until hours later.

In the days since then, I've pondered how I might set up a system to instantly alert myself if something really major and threatening should happen: a nuclear event, a mass aerial anthrax attack, a major dam attack or a coordinated series of bomb blasts in major cities. In such an event, immediate notification =could= make a life-or-death difference.

My first idea was to create a computer system which would periodically scan major news web sites for key phrases in the top news items (such as "nuclear plant"), and automatically trigger a phone call to my home, any time of day or night when such phrases were found. Doable, but there were three major drawbacks to such a plan. First, a lot of work to set up. More importantly, too much delay between the start of a major event, its appearance in the online major media, and the triggering of the phone call. And most importantly of all, too inaccurate. Who wants to be awakened at 3:30 a.m. by the news "More Troops to Protect Nuclear Plant"?

I would now like to propose an "instant alert system" for major threatening events which will overcome all three of those problems, a system which I'm tentatively calling "FReepAlert."

4:36 a.m., Central Standard Time: A sleeping FReeper in Illinois is awakened by a phone call from her husband, an early-shift law-enforcement officer in Joliet. It appears that one of the region's nuclear power plants is under sudden and ferocious terrorist attack. Law enforcement and military units are en route.

4:38 a.m.: "BeenThereDoneThat" begins to activate the FReepAlert network by dialing the phone number of "2old2worry" in Philadelphia. At the same time, she boots up her computer and connects to an online police scanner.

4:39 a.m.: "BeenThereDoneThat" gives up on "2old2worry," who left less than 10 minutes ago for work and doesn't have a cell phone in his car. Undaunted, she dials the number of "HillaryforDogcatcher" in Los Angeles, and rouses her from a sound sleep. She also posts a brief message in the FreeRepublic "Breaking News" section: "SCANNER SAYS ILLINOIS NUCLEAR PLANT UNDER ATTACK."

4:43a.m.: "BeenThereDoneThat" hangs up the phone and, being close to the power plant, begins to prepare for possible evacuation. It is seven minutes since she received first notification of the event from her husband, and her job is essentially done. She has activated the network.

4:41 to 5:00 a.m: The initial chain set off by "BeenThereDoneThat" alerts 5 more people. Thirty-two early-bird FReepers spot the news online. Six of these, being close nuclear power plants of their own in other parts of the country, tune in to local police scanners. Three others are part of FReepAlert. All three of these activate different portions of the FReepAlert chain from that already activated by "BeenThereDoneThat."

5:02 a.m: A FReeper monitoring a police scanner in California picks up a report of a terrorist attack on a nuclear power plant there. He immediately posts the news online.

5:08 a.m.: People on the East Coast are starting to wake up, since it's just after 6:00 a.m. there. However, most have not turned on their TV, so they don't see CNN's brief initial report that a power plant in Illinois appears to be under attack. It is twenty-two minutes since BeenThereDoneThat received a phone call from her husband. More than 50 FReepers have received phone calls (only 3 of whom would've heard the news on CNN), and dozens more have already learned the news online. Several more FReepers spot the CNN news and activate other portions of the FReepAlert chain.

5:10 a.m.: Two minutes after the first news breaks on CNN, 150 FReepers learn the attack in Illinois has been successfully repulsed. At least 6 terrorists are dead, and 3 police officers have been killed or wounded.

By 5:16 a.m, just over 70% of FReepAlert chain members have now been informed, as opposed to only 6% of the American population. This ratio is the same for FReepers in the State of California, where it is 3:16 a.m. Several FReepAlert members in Southern California are preparing for possible evacuation should that become necessary.

Almost none of the State's non-FReepers residents are aware of the attack in their State, since 99% are asleep; and in any event, the news has yet to break on CNN. It will be hours before some of these learn what's going on. A few who don't hear for hours will be local FReepers; though not part of the FReepAlert chain.

5:18 a.m.: CNN reports that law enforcement officers appear to have the Illinois power plant situation "under control." Multiple units are in pursuit of several terrorists who are fleeing in a green minivan.

Meanwhile, eleven armed terrorists enter the restricted area of a nuclear power plant in California.

How the Network Will Actually Work

The network will basically be defined by three things: A) Alert Rules; B) the way the network is set up, and C)the Alert Procedures.

Clear rules must be established for what is and is not a FReepAlertable emergency. The key question is, "Does this information indicate there the likelihood of an immediate and serious threat to people in various parts of the country, or to large numbers of people (many hundreds, or thousands) in a single area?" Threats could be divided into "daytime" and "24-hour" categories, based on the seriousness, immediateness, prior knowledge and credibility of the news threat.

I would propose to list several such examples for FReepAlert members, representative of the kinds of scenarios most likely to occur, and include clear criteria for FReepAlert members to decide whether an unlisted threat is a 24-hour alert, daytime alert, or no alert. Only 24-hour alerts would be passed on between the hours of 10 p.m. and 7 a.m.

The network could be described as a chain, or perhaps more accurately, as a ring. The ring structure means that any major alert given should be able to travel the entire length of the chain and return home, at which point, of course, alert notification would end.

The chain would obviously be broken if a member is not able to reach the next member in line. However, as shown in the example we started with, there is an easy way around this.

Each member of the chain will possess contact information for the next 4 members in the chain. I won't bore you with the math, but if there's a two-thirds chance of getting straight through to any given member, then you stand a 98.8% chance of being able to immediately pass on an alert. On average, you would expect more than 50 links to be completed before the chain would break down. The reliability of the chain would be even stronger at night, when most people are home and reachable in a major emergency.

The daytime hours, are also the hours when FReepers will be more available to pay attention to the news. In reality, then, you wouldn't expect major portions of the chain to be broken for long, because someone somewhere in the next section after the break would pick up the news and restart the chain.

In fact, as explained in the example, in a major crisis several sections of the chain would go active all at once, with the chains of alert dying out when they hit a section where the news has already been heard.

There's also a way make the chain even more reliable (and blindingly fast) in the event of a major middle-of-the-night emergency (such as a nuclear reactor core meltdown). To do so, the FReepAlert "host" (probably me, but this could alternately be someone centrally associated with the FreeRepublic web site) would be notified as part of the first alert. The host would then activate several sections of the chain simultaneously simply by making 5 or 6 phone calls to people at different points in the chain. Using this method with the example scenario above, instead of "more than 50" FReepers already notified by phone by the time a major network first breaks the news, hundreds could already be aware of the situation.

To protect against potential abuse by telemarketer types, no member ( host excepted for reasons detailed below) would possess contact information for more than 4 other people. Any abusing telemarketer could be dropped from the chain upon complaint to the host. So too could a "Chicken Little" who needlessly and repetitively proclaims the sky is falling at 3 a.m., based on dubious reports.

The host would possess a more extensive list of contact information, for several reasons. One is the need, assuming the network reaches a reasonable size, to be able to activate several sections of the ring at once in a major crisis. Also, he would always need to know the latest members to join simply in order to complete the loop and make the network into a ring instead of a one-way chain. When a new member joined, the host would also need to send out the list of 4 contacts for that member.

The host, being located at the "seam" where the loop reconnects onto itself, would be the only member to have a list of contacts which would change when a new member joins. All other members would keep the same contact list for as long as they were part of FReepAlert, which makes the alert system stable and easy to use.

I will need to work up a simple, clear draft list of alert procedures which each member will agree to. Briefly, you can get a rough idea of likely procedures from the examples above:

* if you become aware of a threat, assess its seriousness, immediateness and credibility, as well as how much people are already aware of it.

* if it looks like a major 24-hour alert, and it's the middle of the night, phone the host.

* contact the next person in the chain, and also post a message on FreeRepublic.

* if you can't contact the first person on your list, go to the next one, until you get through.

* once you've contacted the next person, that person will take over and call the next.

* if one of your contacts gets skipped over in the chain (for example, the first person wasn't home), then try to call that person or persons later, because the chain has moved on without them and they won't hear unless they hear from you.

* if you change your contact information or decide to drop out, let the host know so he can alert the 4 people behind you who have your information, and prevent future weaknesses in the chain.

Where From Here?

I would propose to proceed by taking comments and input (NOT contact information!) at this time concerning the FReepAlert idea, its design and operation. Then this proposal will be edited based on some of that input, and clearer rules and procedures set out.

Once I have a sense that people are reasonably happy with the design of things, I would begin taking contact information for those who would like to participate.

Summary

FReepAlert can be set up as a functional network of practically any size, from two participants to thousands. In the event of a major crisis, terrorist or otherwise, FReepAlert could literally be a "life saver".

I agree. Nice post. This is something that's been bothering me lately anyway. I'd sleep much better if I knew someone was going to call me and wake me up if these jerk terrorists struck again in the middle of the night. Also, I'm out of the 'breaking news' loop most of the time at work nowadays - the metal roof prevents AM radio reception, and I'm just too busy to keep FR up and refreshed all day. There could be a radiological attack going on in my own state and depending on how busy my day is, it could take hours for me to hear about it.

Now, how do I get past the suspicious thoughts that the poster of this thread has been here less than a month? :-)

Fundamentally sound idea....awfully complicated after a valid alert is confirmed.

There is a commerically avaliable software that drives Map Quest. A single server holds the data base. Any interested Freeper accesses the server from a FreeRepublic link, enters his personal info and sits back and waits.

A small number of volunter "moderators", working around the clock, acesss the data base after receiving a valid alert, select the geographic location affected, determine a radius of concern (1 mile, 5 miles, 25 miles, etc.) and then authorize a second machine to start delivering an automated phone alert to all Freepers who "subscribed" and are located within the affected area.

The system has two weaknesses. First, the security of the personal data entered. Second, the validity of the data entered (eg. waking up half of Los Angeles because a prankster entered false data). Both problems can however be minimized with proper protocals.

Cost about $2k plus server rental.

Thanks for the essentially complimentary post... but...

Now, how do I get past the suspicious thoughts that the poster of this thread has been here less than a month? :-)

Why the HECK (was sorely tempted to use stronger word) am I AUTOMATICALLY disliked/ distrusted solely on the basis that I've been "signed up" in this forum for less than a month?!

Why does it seem people aren't capable of judging me on the basis of my ideas, not on my "sign-up" date?

If it makes you feel more comfortable, I stood for hours with 700 other FReepers across from the Vice Presidential mansion a year ago and yelled at Al Gore, "Get out of Cheney's house!"

Gore must've felt the heat, because he DID get out of Cheney's house - long enough to go get an ice cream cone...

Hey, at least give me credit for including your name in the by-line and not talking behind your back.

About my comment... Without knowing the history of the disruptor activity that goes on here, I suppose it's understandable that you would get your feathers all ruffled by what I said. But frankly, I'm about to sign off and don't want to take the time to give a detailed description of what's gone on at FR for the past 4 years.

There's no reason to take it personal. After all, this is the i-n-t-e-r-n-e-t. You and I could be anyone. I could be some neurotic wheezebag who is paranoid about 70,000 FReeper-snoops who are trying to trick her into revealing her phone number and thus her identity, and you could be some weird pervert and lonely sleazebag who is trolling for some female's phone numbers because you can't get them any other way. Neither is likely, but neither is impossible either.

A good idea and a worthy post should not be accompanied by an expectation of 'automatic trustworthy status' and worthiness of a FReeper group hug. In my opinion, of course.

And by the way, welcome to Free Republic. :-)

You and I could be anyone. I could be some neurotic wheezebag who is paranoid about 70,000 FReeper-snoops who are trying to trick her into revealing her phone number and thus her identity, and you could be some weird pervert and lonely sleazebag who is trolling for some female's phone numbers because you can't get them any other way. Neither is likely, but neither is impossible either.

You're far too kind. Actually, your example is one of the more benign reasons someone might want to collect as many FReeper phone numbers (and the addresses which are attached to them) as possible.

The better part of valor, and all that...

The better part of valor, and all that...

Why, thank you. :-)

Now, since you guys already have my phone number, can I expect that you'll call me and wake me up if the Houston Ship Channel gets hit with a "Texas-City-style" ka-boom? Logos, you take the late shift since RO has a new cute little baby at home, okay? I knew you wouldn't mind! LOL!

And just to show that I'm willing to reciprocate and watch the 6 of my two buddies, I'll call you guys and wake you up the next time the East Coast gets hit with another white-powder envelope. :)

GO BUTTER!

I did not realize you were new here or I would have responded in the same way! Not to you, but to the person who brought it up! I want you to know that I have had my name listed as a member for quite some time, but I have only been posting here recently for the past month too. So, if credibility is gauged by length of time here and who knows who...I am no doubt where you are! I like this site very much and hope Nita just made a bad choice of words.

BTW! That's a lot of hours outside Cheney's house! Congrats to all the Freepers!!!! You guys and gals are DY-NO-MITE!!!

Perhaps somebody might be so kind as to send me a private message explaining just exactly why so many people here seem so dang paranoid.

Well, the 'silent calls' with "----" on the caller ID, for one thing. You sometimes get the silent calls when you start sticking your nose into something that someone out there wishes you wouldn't. I used to think it was just coincidence until I talked to a few other FReepers who've experienced the same thing. I have an unlisted number that we guard stronger than Fort Knox, so go figure.

So, if credibility is gauged by length of time here and who knows who...I am no doubt where you are! I like this site very much and hope Nita just made a bad choice of words.

Look, this is the last thing I'm going to say about this because it's getting the thread off track.

No, I didn't make a bad choice of words. If anything, I was too vague. Perhaps I should have been more explicit and less concerned with 'niceties' and being politically correct. Here, let me try again:

*** To all females out there who are about to FReepmail this "newbie-we-don't-know-from-Adam" their phone number (especially you older women who are new to the web): Please show caution when giving out personal information on the I-N-T-E-R-N-E-T.***

Please explain to me how someone could possibly be offended by that.

*** To all females out there who are about to FReepmail this "newbie-we-don't-know-from-Adam" their phone number (especially you older women who are new to the web): Please show caution when giving out personal information on the I-N-T-E-R-N-E-T.***

Look, I understand the paranoia a fair bit better as a result of one of the last posts, but frankly, I think you're just a weeee bit overworked. Especially in light of the fact that to this point, I've specifically requested that people DON'T send any contact information to me.

You know, if I wanted phone numbers of females, there are about a thousand hell of a lot easier ways to acquire them. Like, um, opening the telephone book, for example. There are probably a few dozen phone numbers of single women on each and every page.

Those would also have the slight advantage of not being about 1500 miles away...

There are services you can subscribe to that send out info of disasters, etc. on a pager network, nationwide. I think the cost is around $10-$15 /mo.

When I was entertaining ideas of investing the time and work needed to set up a computer-based internet news scanning and automatic phone-calling system for myself and my family, I actually thought of creating a subscriber-based service, making it an ongoing for-profit concern.

But then as soon as the FReepAlert idea struck, the advantages were so clear that I haven't thought of the subscriber-service idea again from that time until you mentioned it.

Nita, I have used the net for years and I am very aware of the need to be cautious and protective. I agree entirely with that aspect of what you said. I have used the net for so long that I can remember when we were dreaming up things like "ROFLMAO!" And I have watched the net go through so many transformations over the years that at one point I stopped using it because I was so offended by a lot of what I saw. I have seen the abuse, the sickness, the disgusting behavior demonstrated by some. And I have had my tax return audited two years in a row which I am sure was the result of my open activities in writing an anti-Clinton newsletter prior to the first unfortunate election.

I have criticized people for years for their indiscriminate posting of information which might tend to identify them. I have been horrified by friends who have made the net a place to find a mate (one friend even left her family for a net buddy she hardly knew, although it is 4 yrs now and she is still with him!). I cringe when I see people post information which I liken to giving trade secrets to a rival or enemy! Sometimes we forget where we are and how many people have access to what we write. And you are right....it is pretty scary to become a victim to our own ignorance.

As a nation we have recently learned how willing some are of taking advantage of our every weakness. There is a very good reason why the post keeps reoccuring to remind us NOT TO PUBLISH MILITARY INFORMATION! And it is not a stretch, particularly now, to realize that the enemy lurks among us and is willing to violate any weakness in a heartbeat. But that is why I assumed that the phone chain would be made up of people who have some standing, and the release of names would be limited. I cringed again at one suggestion that the phone list might be posted because I too keep an unlisted private number.

I do understand your concerns, but we are America and we thrive on the new blood that comes to our country. We all have to be careful in what we share and right now we are feeling very vulnerable, especially me in my line of work knowing that some of the best databases ever made of American citizens were gathered and distributed by people in the Middle East. Scary stuff, but one reason why your number might be out there. Taking that all into account, I can see that there are ways to impliment an alert system that will address all of these concerns, protecting us and helping us all at the same time. Actually, thanks for bringing up the dangers because they are valid and should be addressed.

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Threat	Seriousness	Immediacy	Prior Knowledge	Credibility	Alert Level
With no prior warning, news comes from a Tennessee hospital of a confirmed case of smallpox.	High	Fairly low	None	High	Daytime alert, since people may need to make preparations, and need to do so before a possible general public panic.
News of a confirmed case of smallpox 24 hours after suspicions first reported.	High	Somewhat low	24 hours	High	No alert needed, because of the 24 hours prior knowledge
Suitcase nuke explodes in downtown Seattle at 2 a.m.	Very high	Very high, esp. with public panic	None	High	24-hour alert.
DEBKAfile reports hundreds of thousands of soldiers massing on the Russia-Afghanistan border.	Moderate, for Americans	Not terribly immediate	None	Very low, since DEBKAfile is not considered by most of us to be a credible source... also, there IS no Russia-Afghanistan border... :-)	None.