Endangered Species: The Coming Crisis of Underpopulation (Including Moslem Iran)

The American Spectator | September/October, 2001 | Tom Bethell

[gusopol3]

I suppose the answer is that today there aren't as many billions as they would have forecast there would be 40 years ago. And I do remember the dire predictions of Ehrlich, etc. from the 60's and 70's which still color the public perception of the topic. Let's call a fool a fool.

[gusopol3]

Such cynicism regarding children can only come from hard experience (I don't mean you personally!). I suspect that fathers still expect a better outcome for their kids when they are establishing families. But the article makes the point that it's not just the effete who have turned away from having kids, but people in pretty spare circumstances all over the world.

[gusopol3]

I agree with you about the "living longer,"which while mentioned, wasn't offered as one of the reasons for having fewer children. Urbanization was. Wattenberg apparently puts TV at the center of the circumstances, which at least as far as the timing of the downturn makes some sense.

[mlocher]

good post. i like reading the views of a logical thinking person who enters a field and is not bogged down with the baggage of having been educated in that field. sometimes they proved great insight as they see thing others do not.

[gusopol3]

the discussion about Britain's approach vs. Switzerland's and the relative acceptance of immigrants is very supportive of your reasoning.

[gusopol3]

Admit it -- you said "subdue the earth and fill it" and it just doesn't come across very well.

[quebecois]

Random thoughts on the birth dearth:

Its darn hard to have a baby. Being a man, I can't say that I've done it, but my wife is currently 7 months pregnant with our second child (a boy). Physically, she has had a variety of health problems caused by this pregnancy (esp back problems). Bearing children isn't easy, and I think that given the choice, most women will opt for fewer rather than more. And nowadays, they have a choice.

Kids used to be the mechanism that people used to save for their old age. The capital which was spent raising them was returned as profit when you were an old koot and they had to take care of you. Now people can just use 401K's instead....which require a lot less diaper changes (unless the market collapses...then you may need to change your own diaper).

Feminism is partly to blame as well. Its no accident that Hillary only had one child. Many women believe that their real purpose in life lies in the professional/work world. Children are a hinderance to obtaining that law firm partnership. This is especially bad in that it disproportionately affects high IQ women.

But I think that one of the major causes of this trend is the materialism inherent in modern "McWorld" culture. Our consumer/producer oriented society boils everything down to a transactional, profit-loss relationship. Children are bad because they hinder the efficiency of this system, and are thus discouraged. Everyone knows that for all of the "family friendly" policies of various corporations, they all basically view such relationships as a nuisance. As they used to say in the Navy "If we wanted you to have a family, we'd have issued one to you".

Companies reward those employees who are most compulsive about their work...which means they reward those who spend the least time with their families. And less kids require less time.

Our economic and social system boils down to this: Work all the time, spend all your money on worthless consumer goods, max out all of your credit cards, and have no kids which distract from the cycle. And when you die, you can be replaced by a new cohort of immigrants to begin the cycle again.

Problem is...when this system extends everywhere, where will the new immigrants come from?

Also, humans are not interchangeable robots. They have culture, religion, etc. You just cannot import vast new populations to replace your existing, sterile one and not expect to suffer major dislocations.

The issues of populations, immigration, and differential growth rates, will dominate this century...and it may not be pretty.

[XBob]

you have FReep mail

[aposiopetic]

grateful-for-the-facts ping

[XBob]

This article is a confused, contradictory, pile of crap, and totally avoids addressing the truth. Like the liberals, up is down and down is up: -

World Population
6.199 billion - now
3.912 billion - jan 1970

http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop

[Bernard Marx]

Wattenberg apparently puts TV at the center of the circumstances, which at least as far as the timing of the downturn makes some sense.

Then there was that pesky birth-control pill, invented about the same time....

[XBob]

As I said, what a pile of crap, IMHO we need about 100 more years before it reaches 0 percent increase:

http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/popclockest.txt

Historical National Population Estimates: July 1, 1900 to July 1, 1999

Source: Population Estimates Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
Internet Release Date: April 11, 2000
Revised date: June 28, 2000


National Population Average Annual
Date Population Change Percent Change

July 1, 1999 272,690,813 2,442,810 0.90
July 1, 1998 270,248,003 2,464,396 0.92
July 1, 1997 267,783,607 2,555,035 0.96
July 1, 1996 265,228,572 2,425,296 0.92
July 1, 1995 262,803,276 2,476,255 0.95
July 1, 1994 260,327,021 2,544,413 0.99
July 1, 1993 257,782,608 2,752,909 1.08
July 1, 1992 255,029,699 2,876,607 1.14
July 1, 1991 252,153,092 2,688,696 1.08
July 1, 1990 249,464,396 2,645,166 1.07

July 1, 1989 246,819,230 2,320,248 0.94
July 1, 1988 244,498,982 2,210,064 0.91
July 1, 1987 242,288,918 2,156,031 0.89
July 1, 1986 240,132,887 2,209,092 0.92
July 1, 1985 237,923,795 2,098,893 0.89
July 1, 1984 235,824,902 2,032,908 0.87
July 1, 1983 233,791,994 2,127,536 0.91
July 1, 1982 231,664,458 2,198,744 0.95
July 1, 1981 229,465,714 2,241,033 0.98
July 1, 1980 227,224,681 2,169,194 0.96

July 1, 1979 225,055,487 2,470,942 1.10
July 1, 1978 222,584,545 2,345,120 1.06
July 1, 1977 220,239,425 2,204,261 1.01
July 1, 1976 218,035,164 2,061,965 0.95
July 1, 1975 215,973,199 2,119,271 0.99
July 1, 1974 213,853,928 1,945,140 0.91
July 1, 1973 211,908,788 2,012,767 0.95
July 1, 1972 209,896,021 2,235,344 1.07
July 1, 1971 207,660,677 2,608,503 1.26
July 1, 1970 205,052,174 2,375,228 1.17

July 1, 1969 202,676,946 1,970,894 0.98
July 1, 1968 200,706,052 1,993,996 1.00
July 1, 1967 198,712,056 2,151,718 1.09
July 1, 1966 196,560,338 2,257,375 1.16
July 1, 1965 194,302,963 2,414,172 1.25
July 1, 1964 191,888,791 2,646,993 1.39
July 1, 1963 189,241,798 2,704,061 1.44
July 1, 1962 186,537,737 2,846,256 1.54
July 1, 1961 183,691,481 3,020,323 1.66
July 1, 1960 180,671,158 2,841,530 1.59

July 1, 1959 177,829,628 2,947,724 1.67
July 1, 1958 174,881,904 2,897,774 1.67
July 1, 1957 171,984,130 3,081,099 1.81
July 1, 1956 168,903,031 2,971,829 1.78
July 1, 1955 165,931,202 2,905,348 1.77
July 1, 1954 163,025,854 2,841,662 1.76
July 1, 1953 160,184,192 2,631,452 1.66
July 1, 1952 157,552,740 2,674,851 1.71
July 1, 1951 154,877,889 2,606,472 1.70
July 1, 1950 152,271,417 3,083,287 2.05

July 1, 1949 149,188,130 2,556,828 1.73
July 1, 1948 146,631,302 2,505,231 1.72
July 1, 1947 144,126,071 2,737,505 1.92
July 1, 1946 141,388,566 1,460,401 1.04
July 1, 1945 139,928,165 1,530,820 1.10
July 1, 1944 138,397,345 1,657,992 1.21
July 1, 1943 136,739,353 1,879,800 1.38
July 1, 1942 134,859,553 1,457,082 1.09
July 1, 1941 133,402,471 1,280,025 0.96
July 1, 1940 132,122,446 1,242,728 0.95

July 1, 1939 130,879,718 1,054,779 0.81
July 1, 1938 129,824,939 1,000,110 0.77
July 1, 1937 128,824,829 771,649 0.60
July 1, 1936 128,053,180 802,948 0.63
July 1, 1935 127,250,232 876,459 0.69
July 1, 1934 126,373,773 795,010 0.63
July 1, 1933 125,578,763 738,292 0.59
July 1, 1932 124,840,471 800,823 0.64
July 1, 1931 124,039,648 962,907 0.78
July 1, 1930 123,076,741 1,309,741 1.07

July 1, 1929 121,767,000 1,258,000 1.04
July 1, 1928 120,509,000 1,474,000 1.23
July 1, 1927 119,035,000 1,638,000 1.39
July 1, 1926 117,397,000 1,568,000 1.34
July 1, 1925 115,829,000 1,720,000 1.50
July 1, 1924 114,109,000 2,162,000 1.91
July 1, 1923 111,947,000 1,898,000 1.71
July 1, 1922 110,049,000 1,511,000 1.38
July 1, 1921 108,538,000 2,077,000 1.93
July 1, 1920 106,461,000 1,947,000 1.85

July 1, 1919 104,514,000 1,306,000 1.26
July 1, 1918 103,208,000 -60,000 -0.06
July 1, 1917 103,268,000 1,307,000 1.27
July 1, 1916 101,961,000 1,415,000 1.40
July 1, 1915 100,546,000 1,435,000 1.44
July 1, 1914 99,111,000 1,886,000 1.92
July 1, 1913 97,225,000 1,890,000 1.96
July 1, 1912 95,335,000 1,472,000 1.56
July 1, 1911 93,863,000 1,456,000 1.56
July 1, 1910 92,407,000 1,917,000 2.10

July 1, 1909 90,490,000 1,780,000 1.99
July 1, 1908 88,710,000 1,702,000 1.94
July 1, 1907 87,008,000 1,558,000 1.81
July 1, 1906 85,450,000 1,628,000 1.92
July 1, 1905 83,822,000 1,656,000 2.00
July 1, 1904 82,166,000 1,534,000 1.88
July 1, 1903 80,632,000 1,469,000 1.84
July 1, 1902 79,163,000 1,579,000 2.01
July 1, 1901 77,584,000 1,490,000 1.94
July 1, 1900 76,094,000 --- ---


NOTE:
National population data for the years 1900 to 1949 exclude the
population residing in Alaska and Hawaii. National population data for the
years 1940 to 1979 cover the resident population plus Armed Forces overseas.
National population data for all other years cover only the resident
population. Estimates of the population including Armed Forces
overseas are as follows:

1919 105,063,000
1918 104,550,000
1917 103,414,000

National population data for the years 1900 to 1929 are only available
rounded to the nearest thousand.

Data for this table comes from Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos.
311, 917, 1095, and our National Population Estimates web page. All
Population Division publications may be obtained by writing to Population
Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233; calling the
Statistical Information Staff at (301)457-2422; or by e-mailing a message to
POP@CENSUS.GOV (please include telephone number).

[XBob]

television is the best birth control pill ever invented, I have been saying this for years.

[Nataku X]

I believe it is below replacement levels in the US for the US citizens--the immigrants are the ones who are having the babies. We need to change something...

[Notwithstanding]

Too funny. Best laugh of the day: concise - witty - and on its surface I dare say accurate.

[Lurker]

Brevity (and truth) are the soul of wit.

L

[ikanakattara]

I am very tired of this "If you could just figure it out, your Nobel Prize would be in the mail." It is very simple to figure out.

Women who are *forced* into marriage as teenagers, who aren't allowed to finish high school or go to college, who are traded like cattle in these Islamic or tribal African countries have high birth rates. As soon as women are educated and *free* to reject marriage if they wish, or where marriage itself gets reformed so that their husbands don't treat them worse than the camels or goats, then family sizes decrease.

You can prove this to yourself by looking at the fertility and birth rates of countries in the 2001 CIA World Fact book. EVERY country that is on the road to civilizing itself has lower fertility AND birth rates than countries in which women are still brutalized and traded like animals.

This is considered an extremely politically incorrect assertion by the "right," because it goes against a particular conservative fantasy of a return to six and seven children per family. While there will always be a small percentage of people in the civilized countries who will *choose* to have large families, the general pattern seems to be that if women have the choice not to marry, or not to have large families if they do marry, that most will choose not to. In other words, to ensure a high birth rate on a population basis, you have to force women into it. This is what *conservatives* are going to have to deal with, rather than indulging in nostalgic 19th century fantasies, and I say this *as a conservative.*

[hammerdown]

ping

[patent]

Islam is still weak, but it is growing. Never mind the terrorists; check the birthrates.

From the frequently posted article by Sobran, "Belloc's Prophecy." Sobran doesn't do his homework.

I’m confused here. The article mentions Iran’s birth rate, does it mention the birthrate for other Muslims?

Are you saying that Sobran is wrong when he states that Islam is growing? Even assuming Iran’s birthrate is almost below replacement (which it isn’t yet, but apparently will be soon), Iran is still growing, much less Islam as a whole. Unless I'm missing an entire section of this article, it doesn't even stand for the proposition that the statement you quoted above is wrong, much less prove it.

patent  +AMDG

[Paul C. Jesup]

Could someone please give me a time table as to when this country's Welfare/Tax System begins to breakdown due to, to many people getting old and retiring.

Also, as a side note no one has mentioned on this thread. Very soon a very large chuck of the government's employee base is going to retire and the government is having a real problem finding people who want to work for the government.

What are your thoughts on this?