Endangered Species: The Coming Crisis of Underpopulation (Including Moslem Iran)

The American Spectator | September/October, 2001 | Tom Bethell

[FITZ]

Yes, I just meant those who plan to retire at 60 and live till 80 or 90. My grandfather didn't retire from full time work until he was 84 and then died at 86.

[Andrew Wiggin]

The problem with looking at those figures in the context of this thread is that you are looking at total population growth, which factors in immigration, birth rate, and mortality rate. The article is almost soley concerned with birth rates, which are falling exactly as it claims. The only way we can continue to expand our population in the face of a falling birthrate is to continue to expand the average lifespan. Even in the face of the tremendous increases in life expectancy, the annual growth in the US population during the 1990 was only about half that of the 1900-1910.

Which brings up an interesting point that the article neglects: What assumptions were made in the UN population estimates regarding future mortality rates? I get the feeling that while future fertility rates were overstated, future increases in lifespan were understated by an even larger amount.

I can easily see a cure (or, more likely, several different cures) for cancer being found within the next 20 years. Research into genetics can lead to therapies to counteract genetic pre-dispositions to things like heart disease, and eventually to things like grown-to-order organs. The various causes of aging are being identified. If we can determine what they are, I beleive that we can ultimately counteract them. While this may not be within our lifetime, old age itself will eventually be cured.

What happens when, barring accidents, with access to decent medical care we become (to all intents and purposes) immortal?

[XBob]

sorry I must disagree - the problem is, he is not looking at total population growth, and it is growing exponentially. He is using crappy logic. If we don't stop population growing, we will look and feel like India, which has had a dramatic increase in population and a dramatic decrease in per-capita wealth in the past 100 years.

[Dat]

Future growth depends on the per capita rate. It doesn't matter how large the population base is if the rate goes below replacement, eventually the population will start to fall.

[XBob]

go visit India, walk the streets, and then tell me population density doesn't matter.