State candidates continue smash-mouth politics
Posted on 09/01/2002 9:26:06 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP
State candidates continue smash-mouth politics
09/01/2002
AUSTIN - Working people everywhere look forward to Labor Day because, entertainment-wise, it marks the kickoff of the two greatest contact sports in Texas: football and politics.
While football is teeing up right on cue, the political teams after months of nasty TV ads, radio accusations and even a debate over the debates already have marched on down the field.
"It's probably halftime in the game," Republican Gov. Rick Perry said of his fierce battle with Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez.
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For the first time in a decade, Democrats are competitive in statewide races and believe they have the chance to capture some top posts all held by Republicans, who are defending the home field of the president.
The amount of money flowing from campaigns upward of $40 million expended by Mr. Sanchez alone eclipses all previous spending. It means Democrats can achieve some parity with the GOP in getting out their message and their voters.
And for the first time, Texans could elect a Hispanic and a black man to the state's highest offices. Just having their names on the ballot could dramatically affect voting patterns throughout the state.
Confidence is high in both major parties' camps.
"Our victory center is teeming with workers ... who see the importance of continuing Republicans in office," said Dallas County GOP chairman Nate Crain. "They understand the urgency of working in this campaign cycle."
Harris County Democratic chairwoman Sue Schechter feels that way, too. She has just hung in her office a poster of a bolt of blue slicing through the sky.
"We think lightning's going to strike and Democrats will win. Everything looks that way," she said.
A GOP state
Interviews last week with those in the political trenches county chiefs, pollsters, grass-roots organizers and consultants found agreement on a basic premise: Texas is a Republican state.
If you ask Republicans, those numbers will hold, and the GOP will sweep statewide offices again.
If you ask Democrats, it's a whole new ballgame.
This time around, Democrats say, they have money and qualified candidates with national reputations. The name of George W. Bush, a vote magnet, isn't on the ballot. And the hot issues are high insurance rates and health care topics that generally favor Democrats among voters, said Democratic pollster Jeff Montgomery.
Although Mr. Sanchez is trailing by double-digits, the same polls show former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk deadlocked with Republican Attorney General John Cornyn for the Senate. The polls also show Democrat John Sharp with a step up on Republican David Dewhurst in the lieutenant governor's matchup.
And then you have race. Will Mr. Sanchez attract a surge of new Hispanic voters, and will Mr. Kirk do the same for blacks?
"I think race is the unknown. And it's not just what Hispanics and African-Americans do," Mr. Montgomery said. "The Democratic Party needs a way to attract white voters and talk about issues that resonate with their own life experience."
GOP pollster Mike Baselice, who is working for top Republican candidates, said the Democrats are relying on a harmonic convergence of what-ifs and could-bes. Republicans will win all the races because of nuts-and-bolts political realities, he said.
First, the GOP has the power of incumbency statewide, which provides money raising and headline grabbing. And local political machines are in full throttle, while some Democratic organizations were dismantled because longtime House members were redistricted into retirement, he said.
Mr. Baselice said he doesn't see Hispanics and blacks suddenly sparked into voting for the first time.
"The Democrats are just outnumbered right now," he said. "If the GOP doesn't do a better job of cultivating the Hispanics, they'll be in trouble," but that won't happen until 2020, by his estimate, when the Hispanic voting population will significantly tilt statewide races.
Cash, charisma
In the Senate contest, Mr. Cornyn is emphasizing his close ties with President Bush and keeping the closely balanced Senate in the president's corner. State and national GOP officials are paying close attention to the race and have already devoted hundreds of thousands of dollars to defeating Mr. Kirk and other Democrats.
Mr. Bush, first lady Laura Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney also have pitched in to raise money.
Mr. Kirk is selling himself as a pro-business leader who can bring fractious elements together: After all, he brought cohesion to a splintered Dallas City Council. He has been the toast of Democratic fund-raisers from New York to California.
Most agree that he has a more dynamic public style than Mr. Cornyn and that he is as well known to voters surprising, because Mr. Cornyn has held statewide office for more than a decade.
"Ron Kirk has a particular appeal in the Dallas-Fort Worth media market, and that's where there's a lot of the vote," said Democratic consultant Ed Martin of Austin. "He's a very uniquely qualified candidate, and John Cornyn hasn't been able to differentiate himself."
Dallas County's GOP leader Mr. Crain disagrees. "John Cornyn will win Dallas County," he said. "He's starting to hit his stride in the campaign."
A bitter battle
The most contentious race in a decade, fists down, has been for governor between Mr. Perry, who assumed the office when Mr. Bush went to Washington, and Mr. Sanchez, a wealthy banker-oilman who has poured almost $1 million a week into the race.
The bitterness began when Mr. Sanchez began TV ads that ended in the catchphrase "We didn't elect him. We don't have to keep him," and escalated to the "A-bomb," as a Perry aide put it, when the governor's camp accused Mr. Sanchez of allowing drug money to be laundered through his Laredo thrift 20 years ago.
Mr. Sanchez said the thrift and its officers were cleared of any wrongdoing by federal authorities.
"The last drug ads by Perry were over the top," said Ms. Schechter, the Houston Democrat. "What it did was energize the base. It made people angry."
Roberta Hicks, a Democratic state committeewoman, said she is seeing people rally behind Mr. Sanchez even in her usually conservative domain of Amarillo.
"There's enthusiasm and interest in Tony Sanchez, and it stems from the fact he's a self-made man," she said.
But Elsa Guajardo, a Republican state committeewoman from Mr. Sanchez's hometown of Laredo, said he will not attract the minority vote he's counting on.
"You can see them at pachangas, you can pack them in, but they're only there for the plate," Ms. Guajardo said, referring to South Texas gatherings usually featuring barbecue, beer and politics. "On Election Day, it's hard to get them out."
Isaac Albarado, a senior at Texas Tech University and president of the Texas Federation of College Republicans, said young people and others will vote for Mr. Perry because he has experience as agriculture commissioner, lieutenant governor and governor.
"He's a man of considerable background in government," Mr. Albarado said. "It's scary to think what Sanchez will do. It's not safe for Texas."
In the lieutenant governor's race, Mr. Sharp, the former comptroller, has won the endorsement of major business groups and other usually strong Republican supporters, including pitching Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan.
Mr. Dewhurst, the state land commissioner who made millions in the energy business before seeking public office, has spent at least $12 million on TV ads. Mr. Sharp has yet to go up on TV.
Email choppe@dallasnews.com
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