Posted on 09/12/2002 8:50:57 PM PDT by patriciaruth
"Pray as if it all depended on God; work as if it all depended on you."
Close, possible pickups: South Dakota, Missouri, Georgia, New Jersey and Minnesota.
Possible losses: Arkansas, New Hampshire, Texas, North Carolina
If lightening strikes, may pickup: Iowa
South Dakota: John Thune, current Congressman, (articulate, affable, attractive in an August debate with Johnson) running against Tim Johnson, current Senator.
Last poll: 40%-40% announced just before the debate
John Thune for South Dakota
P.O. Box 516
Sioux Falls, SD 57101
New Jersey: Doug Forrester (bio: former assistant state treasurer, now small businessman and university instructor) is running against Senator Robert Torricelli, who got a reprimand from the Senate Ethics Committee and may be vulnerable. Forrester creamed the Torch in a recent debate, and he was ahead of Torricelli in the last poll.
Forrester 2002, Inc.
3535 Quakerbridge Road, Suite 400
Hamilton, NJ 08619
Minnesota: Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul, running against Paul Wellstone, current Senator.
Link to www.colemanforsenate.com
Coleman for U.S. Senate
1410 Energy Park Dr, Ste. 11
St. Paul, MN 55108-9865
New Hampshire: U.S. Representative John Sununu, son of former Governor, defeated current Senator Bob Smith in the September 10th primary and faces current Democrat governor, Jean Shaneen, in the general election for Senator. (Smith disaffected too many Republicans when he changed his party registration to Independent a few years ago and then changed his mind and came back.) Sununu has less than two months to knit the party back together for the general election to retain the seat against a tough opponent, who probably would have defeated Smith.
Team Sununu
PO Box 500
Rye, NH 03870
Missouri: Jim Talent, former Congressman from St. Louis, against current Senator Jean Carnahan (who was appointed when her dead husband narrowly "won" in 2000 election over John Ashcroft). There is talk that if Talent wins he may be allowed to take the seat immediately.
last Zogby poll: Talent 47%-46% Carnahan
Link to www.talentforsenate.com
Jim Talent for Senate
9433 Olive Boulevard
St. Louis, MO 63132
Arkansas: Senator Tim Hutchinson challenged strongly by state attorney general Mark Pryor. Sen. Hutchinson, a former Baptist minister, is in trouble for reelection because of his divorce and remarriage after winning the Senate seat in 1996 on a platform of family values. He won his primary by 70% against another Christian conservative so the voters may be starting to forgive him, but he was down 10 points in an August poll. Without help, this is our most likely loss.
Hutchinson for Senate
PO Box 998
Rogers, AR 72756
Georgia: U.S. Rep. Saxby Chambliss against current Senator Max Cleland.
Texas: State Attorney General John Cornynis running close in the polls to Democrat Ron Kirk, former mayor of Dallas. Current Senator Phil Graham is retiring. Democrat Kirk is getting lots of financial support from outside the state because he is black and because Democrats want to embarrass Bush in his home state of Texas.
John Cornyn for Senate, Inc.
P.O. Box 13026
Austin, Texas 78711
Iowa: U.S. Representative Greg Ganske is challenging current Senator Tom Harkin. Although he was behind in last poll, he may gain ground with the ad campaign in urban areas.
Dole 2002 Committee
P.O. Box 2109
Salisbury, NC 28145-9982
Opponent appeared with mustache and no tie and a flag pin in his lapel. Allard was, well, "low key" might be a way to put it, in his demeanor for this debate in the Western, rural half of the state, and not as sharp and aggressive as the Republican governor had been in his debate just before this one, but he had positions and answers and proof he had been working for the State and did okay.
Luckily, his opponent isn't a down home guy but a lawyer who leans a touch toward environmental wacko. Hopefully Colorado isn't totally inundated with Aspen liberals yet, so Allard may hold on despite the apparently vicious ad campaign the Dems are running against him.
Still, vicious ads may back fire against the Dems in Western Colorado like it may be backfiring against the Dems in Southern North Carolina.
Please keep me alerted to any shift in the polls there.
ARKANSAS: Hutchinson 47% Pryor 44% Tarrance Group (R) 9/3-4 4.4%
COLORADO: Allard 46% Stickland 35% Stanley (L) 6% Hill Research (R) 8/24-25 4%
TEXAS: Cornyn 33% Kirk 38% Fairbanks Maslin Maullin & Assoc. (D) 9/3-5 3.6%
SOUTH DAKOTA: Thune 44% Johnson 48% Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) 9/3-5 4%
NORTH CAROLINA: Dole 56% Bowles 39% Survey U.S.A. 8/24 2.4%
NEW JERSEY: Forrester 40% Torricelli 41% Newark Star-Ledger 9/3-8 4%
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Sununu 44% Shaheen 43% Concord Monitor 8/26-28 4%
MISSOURI: Talent 45% Carnahan 46% Research 2000 9/3-5 4%
The obvious braindead observation here is that the Republican Party continues to fail to realize that KEY swing voters (those that actually decide an election) are attracted to candidates that come out swinging. Even some Dems will say "this guy's got balls" or something to that effect and vote Republican.
There is a fine line between running a negative ad and balancing it with taste. THAT IS where these elections will be won.
McBride will do exactly that against Jeb Bush in Florida and he will win (unfortunately)- and all because the Republican Party is stupid in campaigns- don't get it.
The most important thing for Republicans (other than actual effective strategy and tactics that CONNECT with people) is for Republicans to set up phone banks to get out the vote in recod numbers.
This has to be a serious effort if we want to bring the Senate back to Repubs. Make each local precinct an attempt to have a RECORD NUMBER of Republicans show up at the polls.
That is the MOST important thing to accomplish.
Absolutely and totally agree.
Colorado has been trending GOP the last few years - definitely an advantage for Allard.
Really? Well, then the GOP sure is lucky to have the White House, the House and a majority of the governorships. Not to mention a split Senate. Not bad for not having a clue how to conduct a campaign!
Iowa: U.S. Representative Greg Ganske is challenging current Senator Tom Harkin. Although he was behind in last poll, he may gain ground with the ad campaign in urban areas.
Link to www.ganskeforsenate.org (Credit card donations are made via Pay Pal)
Ganske for Senate
1200 Grand Ave.
West Des Moines, IA 50265
North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole, former U.S. Transportation Secretary under Ronald Reagan, former Labor Secretary and former CEO of the American Red Cross, is running against Erskine Bowles, former Clinton chief of staff. This is Jesse Helms old seat, so we need to retain it.
Dole 2002 Committee
P.O. Box 2109
Salisbury, NC 28145-9982
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