[The Great Satan]

Logic also argues that he does not yet have such weapons.

180 degrees from the truth.

Contradicting Some U.S. Officials, 3 Scientists Call Anthrax Powder High-Grade

[The Great Satan]

Hussein also is quite aware that the United States should not be taken lightly and that its military has a tendency to produce unexpected successes.

Unexpected only to the Grade Z morons at STRATFOR.

[mhking]

It is difficult to conceive of such a weapon, but one scenario might be:
1. To demonstrate by some means that he has chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
2. To announce that those weapons have been deployed in some American cities.
3. To announce that they will be used if the U.S. commences a war but not otherwise.

If that's where we're headed, then this'll get real ugly, real quick...

[BulletBrasDotNet]

Nothing new in this article.

[Magnum44]

His premise is that the United States will begin operations at a time of its choosing and that the opening phase of that war will focus on air attacks.

StratFor, and Saddam, will make the mistake, again, that we are fighting the "last" war. Standby for a surprise....

[Grut]

Too sanguine. Hussein invades Jordan to 'save' it from 'an Israeli-backed US coup'. Because we have only a few thousand troops in country they are rolled up; at least until Israeli forces intervene, which they surely will.

This leaves Hussein with partial control of Jordan, American POWs in hand and a war which has been transmuted from US-Iraq to Arab-Israeli. It leaves the US with Iraqi-held hostages, NO access to the theater of operations except through Israel, and a whole lot of surrounding countries which will be undependably neutral at best.

At that point, it's hard to see how the US could prosecute the war further, short of nukes.

[Sam's Army]

"Nevertheless, if Hussein could be convinced that the choice is between death and abdication, something might be worked out. Who would be the lucky winner of the Saddam Hussein sweepstake is unclear."

France seems to come to mind....

[The Great Satan]

[RightWhale]

It is known that DEBKA derives most of its good info from Stratfor, or maybe it's the other way around.

[Centurion2000]

Hussein's secondary mode of deterrence would be to demonstrate that Iraq does possess a significant weapon of mass destruction that could be delivered effectively and that the United States could not destroy it with any high degree of assurance. It is difficult to conceive of such a weapon, but one scenario might be:
1. To demonstrate by some means that he has chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
2. To announce that those weapons have been deployed in some American cities.
3. To announce that they will be used if the U.S. commences a war but not otherwise.

Interesting that Iraq is planning a 'major' announcement soon. The Iraqi ultimatum may be forthcoming shortly.